Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic dribbles the ball against the Phoenix Suns during the first half of an NBA basketball game in Phoenix, Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2022. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
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Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 57.64 DK - 59.15
There are a bunch of outstanding injury issues hanging there for the his Christmas which might swing some of these lineups throughout the day, but we can feel pretty good about spending up for Luka. The 230 over/under is tied for the highest of the slate and the Lakers play a top-10 opposing pace on a day with a lot of slow and defensively-sound teams. Doncic is coming off an insane game against the Rockets that saw him drop 50 points while also adding in 10 assists, and eight rebounds. If we can find some cheap plays elsewhere, Luka has as high a floor as there is in the game.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 38.88 DK - 41.83
Jalen Brunson is coming off a rougher game against the Bulls when he was also fairly high owned on FanDuel. I do think we are still getting him at a value here even against a tougher matchup against the Sixers. Brunson has a very high minutes floor in close games, having run 38 and 39 in each of the last two games respectively. He’s getting up almost 16 shots a game over the last months and averaging 18 points and six assists in that span. On a slate that might not has a ton of punt play value we might have to operate in the middle tier for cash games.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 37.75 DK - 41.79
The Warriors have been involved in some blowouts of late which has cut down on the starter’s minutes. That could be the case against Memphis here, though the line is currently only -6.5 road favorites here. Poole has seen massive usage with Stephen Curry out of the lineup and has taken an average of 20 shots a game over the last five. Not many players have this kind of green light and it makes his increased price points palatable.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 25.25 DK - 26.87
I’m adding White here as a value play here because we are going to need guys in this price point for this slate seeing as how there aren’t likely to be tons of punts. He’s coming cheap on both sites, but especially on DraftKings in the lower $4K range. He does has a lower floor especially if the usage rate doesn’t get all that high, and there are for sure games where it doesn’t. Though he is coming off a 13-shot performance against the Timberwolves on Wednesday. I think we can run him on the minutes and hope enough happens against the Bucks in this one.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 55.84 DK - 60.46
With Anthony Davis out, the Lakers need everything more out of LeBron James right now, and even that might not be enough for this squad. They are coming off two straight losses, each of which saw the opponent put up 134 points, though LeBron did put averaged 32.6 points, 9.3 assists, and 5 rebounds in the last three games since AD went on the shelf. If the game stays close, we should see him hit minutes in the upper 30s and he is coming a bit cheaper than some of the upper tier superstars on this slate. It makes it a bit easier to build lineups with him at the core.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 24.45 DK - 26.52
It’s clear now that the Thibs and the Knicks want to run Quentin Grimes all the minutes and 32 or more in each of the last three. He needs to hit his threes to really pay off because that’s at the core of his fantasy scoring, but the dude is knocking them down at a 42% rate over the last month at close to six attempts per game. The rebounds can help get him there, but he’s not coming all that expensive.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 29.04 DK - 31.21
The minutes can come and go for Horford, and with Robert Williams back in the mix here, we could see the former’s run cut just a bit. But he’s always been solid at picking up Giannis and that could be the case here against Milwaukee. From that standpoint, getting Horford who could play 33+ minutes in the $5K range on both sites could easily pay off. Again, guys in this range might be as close as we get to punt/ value plays on this slate.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 31.86 DK - 34.71
I do think Draymond is a solid play on this slate if the Warriors can keep the game close with the Grizzlies. He is able to put up assists and rebounds if things are rolling correctly for GSW, though I do find it somewhat troubling that the dude has exactly one block or steal in his last six games total (172 minutes). It could be running bad, or it could be a sign of something else. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, but that isn’t a great thing if he’s not going to be contributing on the defensive end.
We need to keep an eye on the Thomas Bryant (FD 6100 DK 5600) situation here. He left last game with an injury and might not be able to go in this one. If he can play, I think he’s a still a good price on both sites. If he can’t go we could see Damian Jones (FD 3900 DK 3000) get minutes at center. Luckily, this is the second game on the slate so we might have the injury news in time before lock.
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