Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic against the Golden State Warriors during an NBA basketball game in San Francisco, Tuesday, Dec. 28, 2021. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
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Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 42.22 DK - 44.96
Devin Booker is going to be out for this game as well meaning we should see a full run of minutes for Chris Paul once again. The price has come up some on Paul in the short-term though it’s still not in range of what his opportunity is right now. He’s double-doubled in two of the last four games and the three-point shooting has started to round into shape as well. The overall usage can come and go, but this is still a good spot for the Point God.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 37.84 DK - 40.72
The Knicks were on a bit of a heater until they lost to the Raptors last game. But they walk into a good spot here against the Bulls who play an above-average pace on the season. Brunson has a very high minutes floor if the game breaks right, coming off running 39 minutes in that Toronto game. He’s taken 14 or more shots in each of the last six games and even though he struggled against the Raps, you have to like the usage and assist numbers at these prices.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 40.82 DK - 43.99M
This is a slightly tricky spot for Beal. On the one hand, he is in about as good a spot as you would hope, facing off against a Kings team that runs the fifth-fastest pace in the league with a bottom-third defensive efficiency. And there’s a world in which the Wiz are once again playing without Kristaps Porzingis. But Washington is also coming on the back-to-back here which might limit his minutes. I do think we are set to see a price increase on Beal in the short term with the minutes likely ticking up incrementally and this could be a buy-low spot.
If Jamal Murray is out again then Bruce Brown (FD 5900 DK 5800) would be an excellent value play.
Dorian Finney-Smith is out for the Mavericks which could mean Tim Hardaway Jr. (FD 5500 DK 5500) getting a lot of minutes.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 57.5 DK - 61.51
With Anthony Davis out, this is Lebron’s team for the foreseeable future and he’s being priced like that at this point. While he’s entered into the top-tier group in pricing, it still probably isn’t high enough considering what the Lakers need him to do. He draws a great matchup against the Hornets who have the fifth-worst defensive efficiency and are a top-10 pace team in the league. Lebron is coming off a 31-point, 11-assist game against the Kings that had him taking 21 shots, eight more than the next-closest player. He’s got about as high a floor as anyone on the slate.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 23.83 DK - 26.23
He should draw the start for Eric Gordon who will be out of the Rockets’ lineup on Friday. Martin is coming cheap on both sites which could go a long way to fitting some of the higher-priced superstars on a massive slate. Martin won’t have massive usage sharing the court with Jalen Green, Kevin Porter, and even Jabari Smith but on the season he’s averaging 13 points and 6.4 rebounds per 30 minutes. That gets the job at these almost-punt prices. He’s arguably an easy play on DraftKings if there isn’t too much injury wackiness in the other games Friday.
If Zion Williamson is out again then Herbert Jones (FD 5100 DK 4700) and Trey Murphy III (FD 5200 DK 4600) make for solid plays at the cheaper end of things.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 63.9 DK - 67.83
I know we’ve been on some expensive plays already for this slate, but man is Jokic a tough fade tonight (and most nights). The Nuggets have one of the highest implied totals on the slate sitting at 118.5 and this dude is putting up numbers, once again, like we’ve never really seen. He’s triple-doubled each of the last two games and one of those was a 40-point, 27-rebound, 10-assist game that landed him close to the history books. He’s got as high a floor as anyone (really ever) in basketball and the price, while expensive, is still palatable considering how he can pile it up.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 41.67 DK - 45.24
The Mavericks have moved Christian Wood into the starting lineup in place of Dwight Powell and that’s going to keep the minutes on the higher side, presumably, for the time being. It will always be a bit of tough sledding to pile on numbers while sharing the court with Luka Doncic and that showed last time out with Wood getting just 12 points and five rebounds in his 27 minutes. But I still think this is too good of a spot against the Rockets and he’s not totally priced like a starter.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 41.73 DK - 44.26
With Booker out of the lineup, usage has trickled downstream to guys like Ayton and he’s coming off a game that saw him take a team-high 20 shots and finish with 30 points and 13 rebounds in the loss to the Wizards. This isn’t as good a matchup against the Grizzlies, but I still like the price on both sites and his floor with the easy double-double potential is plenty high.
Jonas Valanciunas (FD 6600 DK 6300) would be close to a must-start again if Zion Williamson and Larry Nance Jr. were out again.
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