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DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Saturday 12/17
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Guards
Ja Morant FD - $10700 DK - $10600
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 51.77 DK - 55.83
Dillon Brooks FD - $6300 DK - $6600
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 32.94 DK - 35.9
The Grizzlies are in a great spot tonight against a struggling Thunder team that has dropped five straight, ranks 19th in defensive efficiency, and runs at a Top 5 pace. When looking at superstar pay-ups on this slate, there are only two players(Giannis/Luka) projected higher in our system than Ja Morant and both are significantly more expensive. While the overall numbers aren't quite in line with those other two, they sure have been close in the short term as Morant has been on a team since early November. It starts with volume as he has taken 20 or more shots in 13 of his last 15 games and delivered 40 or more DraftKings points in each of those games while averaging 26.9 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 8.4 assists. In this matchup coming in that second tier of pricing, Morant is my favorite guard and one of my top overall plays on this slate.
Staying in the same game, we can't ignore the solid production we have been getting from Dillon Brooks over the last month with Desmond Bane out of the lineup. In those 15 games, he is averaging over three more shots a game and nearly seven more fantasy points per game. He hasn't been on our radar as much lately with the pricing peaking on both sites but the good news is that it's trending back down and at the right time as the Griz get a terrific matchup on Saturday. There is flashes of huge upside here at times but I much prefer Brooks in cash games on both sites tonight.
CJ McCollum FD - $7800 DK - $7400
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 36.14 DK - 39.28
We are not usually out to target matchups between two teams with Top 10 defence's but considering this game has the second-highest total on this smaller five-game slate, I am on board. McCollum battled an illness in late November and upon returning took some easing back into game shape but seems to be back in form. He has taken an average of 20.5 shots over his last four games, shooting nearly 45% and averaging just shy of 40 fantasy points per game. The Pels are still without Brandon Ingram for at least another week so the usage should remain for now which has me liking McCollum in all formats tonight.
Also Consider: Jalen Green/Kevin Porter(HOU) who are both getting a ton of volume, have a plus matchup, and both of their prices are trending down at the moment
Small Forward
Malik Beasley FD - $5200 DK - $5700
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 26.63 DK - 29.87
This may not be the most friendly of matchups as the Jazz head on the road to face the #2 defence in Milwaukee but this game is one of three on this small slate with a 230 or higher total and is also expected to stay close. For that to happen, Malik Beasley will have to continue his hot play with Collin Sexton out of the lineup. In those four games, he has seen his usage increase by about 4% and has been averaging over 31 fantasy points per game in that stretch. After almost reaching $6K on DraftKings, the price has started to trend back down and his FanDuel price is already in a great spot to put hi in play in all formats.
Also Consider: Mikal Bridges(PHO) who was still rock solid(11 for 18 for 41 fantasy points) with the return of Devin Booker last game and gets a plus matchup. Probably best as a GPP pivot.
Power Forward/Center
Zion Williamson FD - $10100 DK - $10000
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 47.39 DK - 50.01
I mentioned the loss of Brandon Ingram above and it has been Zion who has been the biggest beneficiary of his absence. With Ingram out, Zion is averaging around three more shots a game and making the most of it averaging 29.7 points, 9.0 rebounds, 5.6 assists, and 2.5 blocks+steals over his last nine games which has equated to a fantasy average of 53.2 DK/52.8 FD points per game. In a game with the second-highest total combined with Zion's all-around fantasy game, he is a core play for me in all formats.
Christian Wood FD - $6500 DK - $6300
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 30.76 DK - 34.18
You are probably calling me crazy right now as Dallas is playing on a back-to-back on the road facing the #1 defence in a game with the lowest total on the slate. While I am mostly crazy, I do like this spot here for a couple of reasons. First of all, Wood has been tremendous with Maxi Kleber out the last two games making 18 of 31 shots(58%) while also grabbing 19 boards and putting up 31 and 52 fantasy points. That run should continue on Saturday, despite all the knocks against I mentioned above, seeing as not only Kleber is out but Dwight Powell is also doubtful after picking up an injury last night. Fire up Wood in all formats.
