Philadelphia Eagles' Jalen Hurts in action during of a preseason NFL football game, Friday, Aug. 12, 2022, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
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Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 27.82 DK - 27.82
The Chiefs are huge favorites here against the Texans, and for good reason. Though Houston put up a valiant effort against the Cowboys last week, this is still one of the worst teams in the league. And KC should be able to step on the gas early and often. They have, as a team, run the ball a bit more of late with Pacheco which is a concern with Mahomes ceiling if the game starts getting out of hand, but he’s a tough fade in this matchup considering he has 400+ more passing yards than the next-closest guy and his 33 touchdowns are six more than the next-closest.
Opponent CHI
Proj Points FD - 26.47 DK - 26.47
If you’re not going to play the runner up in the MVP odds right now, you might as well play the favorite. That’s kind of where we are with the quarterback situation on this slate, and in some ways, Hurts is in an even better spot than Mahomes. He’s playing the Bears who have the leagues worst defensive DVOA on the season, coming in terrible against both the run and the pass. This is a smash spot for Hurts whose 10 rushing touchdowns ranks first among quarterbacks. Plus he has a 22:3 TD: INT rate on the season, making him just about as efficient as it gets for a quarterback. It’s a close call between these two QBs but I do think you should play one of them in cash.
Opponent CHI
Proj Points FD - 16.52 DK - 17.63
There’s definitely a world where we are just stacking a couple of the best teams in cash and calling it a day. Miles Sanders helps some with that if you want to lean on the Eagles’ running attack to get you all the way home. Somewhat quietly, Sanders is fifth in the league in rushing yards on the season and his 11 rushing touchdowns are tied for third in the league. The price on both sites is right in range of acceptable and like we said with Hurts, the matchup against the Bears is about as good as it gets. The Eagles are -9 road favorites, right where we want to be with playing running backs in cash.
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 17.51 DK - 20.06
What to do with Alvin Kamara here? On the one hand, Mark Ingram is out of the mix now and he is facing off against a Falcons defense that’s among the worst in the league. They rank 28th against the run and 29th against the pass. It’s a perfect spot and the Saints are -4 home favorites. But then there is Kamara who hasn’t carried the ball more than 12 times in the last five games and a few of those have been single-digits. There is still work in the passing game, but the Saints are 4-9 and basically dead. The matchup is still probably good enough to take a chance here, but it’s a bit risky.
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 15.12 DK - 16.62
Really looking at his price more on DraftKings than FanDuel. Coming under $6K on DK is fine especially considering they’ve worked him into the pass game just a little bit more over the last few weeks with five targets in the last two games combined. The Chiefs have also shown they will lean on him when the getting is good, carrying the ball 22 times in the blowout win over the Rams three weeks ago. I think he has touchdown equity here and offers a nice hedge on Mahomes in cash.
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 15.36 DK - 19.02
It feels like we’ve been waiting awhile for another Juju double-digit target game and it happened in Week 14 for just the second time this season. It has seemed like he would turn into the game-to-game possession receiver alongside Kelce in this offense, though the consistency just hasn’t been there. Luckily, he’s still priced completely fairly on DraftKings and makes it very easy to have a Kansas City stack in cash.
Opponent KC
Proj Points FD - 14.42 DK - 17.65
We ended up running Chris Moore and to some degree, Phillip Dorsett in cash last week when it was determined that Houston was basically down to only these two guys in the receiving corps. For Moore, it totally worked out. He had 11 targets and turned that into 10 catches for 124 yards in the game against Dallas. He’ll get a chance to repeat it with the likelihood that Houston will be playing from behind almost all throughout the game. The Texans are also without Dameon Pierce so the offense is down to just leftovers, but there is still fantasy upside to be had in these situations if they are right.
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 15.76 DK - 19.22
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 10.07 DK - 12.35
The Lions have been very tough to run on over the last many weeks and the Jets look like they’ve had no issue airing the ball out with Mike White under center since he took over for Zach Wilson. White is dealing with an injury here so we will have to check in on the status, but even having Joe Flacco here wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world for these pass catchers. Wilson is still coming too cheap on DraftKings for a guy who could see double-digit targets even though it was a down week in Week 14. And Elijah Moore jumped up the target share list last week with 10, turning it into 8/60 and playing 82% of the snaps.
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 19.07 DK - 23.19
What else is there to say about Kelce at this point? He’s so far and away the best tight end option that it’s almost comical. His 270.4 DraftKings points ranks first at the position by more than 100 (100!) and he’s 12th overall on DK for any position. On a week that doesn’t feature the highest target guys in the best spots at WR, I think it’s pretty clear we spend up here at TE and call it a day. Kelce completes the KC stack.
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 10.67 DK - 13.49
Look, if you want to tempt fate and fade Kelce at a bad position, I get it. There’s a case to be made for Evan Engram coming off a monster week He got 15 targets and exploded for a slate breaking 11 catches, 162 yards and two touchdowns. This followed a seven target week so it wasn’t completely out of nowhere. But the price on FanDuel has caught up some to his production so I’m a little wary there. DraftKings still under $4K? A lot of folks are rightfully going to smash that play.
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 9.02 DK - 9.02
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 8.71 DK - 8.71
Opponent LAC
Proj Points FD - 6.85 DK - 6.85
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