Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson runs up field after catching a pas during the first half of an NFL football game against the New York Jets, Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn)
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Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 25.49 DK - 25.49
It’s tough to know what to do with Josh Allen right now. He injured his arm a few weeks ago and the last three games, from a fantasy perspective, have been a bit rough. In that stretch, he’s averaged just 224 yards passing per game. And the Bills have made a bit more of a commitment to the run. But that’s also meant a price drop for the QB and this is still the second-highest fantasy-scoring player on DraftKings overall this season. The matchup against the Jets isn’t ideal but the Bills are -9.5 favorites at home and would really like to win this game. I think I am fine running him on the past performance and the upside, but recognize that there is some risk here.
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 23.06 DK - 23.06
Burrow is coming a touch cheaper than the top-tier quarterback group this week and that could really work out to our advantage in this game against the Browns. This one has the second-highest over/under of the entire slate and Bengals are favored against Deshaun Watson and company. With Ja'Marr Chase returning last week and Joe Mixon back this week, the Bengals have a full complement of weapons and Burrow has a very high floor with about as high an upside of anyone in the game. Cleveland is the 27th-ranked defense in football this season, though they are worse against the run than the pass. Regardless, I like Burrow here especially if Cincy is going to keep its foot on the gas.
Opponent MIN
Proj Points FD - 18.9 DK - 18.9
The 5-7 Lions are -1 favorites at home against the 10-2 Vikings and the latter doesn’t have any major injuries. We live in weird and wild times. Goff has real upside if this game gets into a shootout and is coming cheap enough on DraftKings to live with the fact that he doesn’t get out and run really at all. He’ll need to be a high-volume passer which is a bit risky, especially if the Lions get out to a lead here. But he is coming off 41 and 37 attempt weeks in the last two. The Vikings are a good enough offense to put pressure on the Lions to throw early and often. From that perspective, I like Goff coming cheap on DK.
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 22.28 DK - 25.81
The 49ers are definitely in a weird spot now, having gone all-in on this season but also just losing their second starting quarterback on the season with Jimmy G suffering a foot injury that will keep him out weeks and weeks. They will turn to Brock Purdy under center, but will also more likely just continue to lean on CMC for the majority of their offensive production. It’s a terrible matchup against the Bucs, but McCaffrey is coming off a week that saw him get 27 looks (17 carries, 10 targets) and put up 144 total yards and a touchdown. Few other players in the league have this kind of volume floor and even in a bad matchup I think CMC is underpriced here.
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 18.38 DK - 20.56
Joe Mixon is going to be back from the concussion protocol this week and should be set to resume his workhorse ways. He walks into a great spot against the Browns who rank second-to-last in DVOA rushing defense on the season. Plus, the Bengals are -6 home favorites, making for the running back sweet-spot here. Even with Samaje Perine filling in admirably in his stead, Mixon had dominated snaps for Cincy this season and that’s likely to be the case once again here.
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 15.31 DK - 16.9
It will be interesting to see how the Buffalo Bills handle the backfield duties this week. In Week 13, James Cook played 43% of the snaps (Singletary 44%) but saw crazy good volume on his snaps. He carried the ball 14 times and got six targets meaning he touched the ball 63% of the time he was actually on the field. We could see the workload actually increase here considering he was efficient with the touches, gaining 105 yards from scrimmage. With the Bills as -9.5 home favorite, this is usually where we want to lean on running backs.
If Kenneth Walker sits then DeeJay Dallas or Tony Jones could step into a big role for the Seahawks.
Opponent MIN
Proj Points FD - 19.96 DK - 24.65
Over the last four weeks, Amon-Ra St. Brown is fourth in the NFL in receiving targets and that number could really pile on again in this game. As stated with Goff, this game has, by far, the highest implied point total of the slate and will be played in perfect dome conditions. The upside on ARSB is real here and if anything this dude is running bad on touchdowns, seemingly having been tackled at the 1-yard line 500 times this season (that’s what it feels like at least).
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 21.31 DK - 25.47
It’s weird to put Justin Jefferson second on any list at all, but this is mostly about price. If you are paying up for running back then fitting in a few higher-priced wide receivers is going to be tough. But there is a chance we get some RB savings in the Seattle situation and some other spots this week. Getting a game stack of Amon-Ra and Justin Jefferson at WR could have a high floor and huge upside as well. Jefferson is WR4 in DraftKings scoring this season and is fourth in targets as well. Getting exposure to this game as much as possible in cash is likely to be the correct move and making concessions at other lineup spots is a strategy you will likely see employed on both sites.
Opponent BUF
Proj Points FD - 15.89 DK - 19.36
Think Garrett Wilson likes having Mike White under center and slinging for the Jets? I sure hope so. Over the last two weeks, Wilson has a 27% target share in the passing game and is coming off a whopping 15 targets in the loss to the Vikings. The Jets could be playing catchup here against the Bills and that could lead to a bigger volume for Wilson once again. The DraftKings price hasn’t really caught up with him being an elite usage guy at the position and having a better quarterback under center.
Consider Darius Slayton especially if you think the Giants are playing catchup against the Eagles.
Opponent KC
Proj Points FD - 8.92 DK - 11.04
The weekly tight end carousel continues with a near-constant struggle to find anyone at the position cheap enough to consider without taking the chances at a full zero. That’s where Dulcich comes in following a nine-target game in Week 13. He caught just six passes for 85 yards which is about as good as you’ll see from a tight end outside of the top options. Again, we are in such a weird spot with the position. The best option Travis Kelce is probably too expensive and Mark Andrews is playing with a backup quarterback this week. Take the savings on both sites and live to see another day at the position.
Opponent BAL
Proj Points FD - 10.23 DK - 12.71
Another fine enough option, Freiermuth saw an 18% target share in Week 13 and 14% in Week 12. These aren’t numbers that will blow you away, but actually are some of the higher percentages at the position. I think the floor is high enough all things considered and again we are just looking to save here and not get totally buzzed on the production.
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 10.61 DK - 10.61
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 7.31 DK - 7.31
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 6.52 DK - 6.52
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