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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 12/7/22
It's been a wild week. We've had LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Damian Lillard, Pascal Siakam, and James Harden all return in the last week. Having so many superstars return simultaneously is strange, but it's exciting for NBA fans. We've had a fair share of studs go down as well, which will play a huge factor in this article. With that in mind, let's start with one of the most exciting players in the NBA.
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Point Guard
Ja Morant FD - $9600 DK - $10600
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 50.93 DK - 52.52
Ja has taken his game to another level in the absence of Desmond Bane. That's increased his shot attempts, minutes, and usage, flirting with a 40 percent usage rate when Bane is sidelined. That's led to Morant scoring at least 42 DraftKings points in 12 straight games, generating a 51-point average in that span. That's the best stretch of his career, and it should continue against Oklahoma City. The Thunder rank 28th in points allowed while possessing one of the worst rosters in the NBA. Ja missed 15 of his 20 shots against OKC in their one matchup this year but still had 47 fantasy points. Imagine what he could do if he gets hot!
Jordan Poole FD - $5900 DK - $6500
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 38.5 DK - 40.57
Poole is going to be in everyone's lineup, but this is chalk you have to swallow. Stephen Curry and Draymond Green have both been ruled out already, forcing Poole into a start and a primary playmaking role. With those two off the floor, Poole has a 32.4 percent usage rate while averaging 1.1 DK points per minute. Poole is averaging 38 DraftKings points per game across 33 minutes a night in his six starts this season. Most of those have been without Chef Curry, and Poole will be happy to take over cooking duties in his absence. Utah is far from a problematic matchup, allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing guards this season.
Fred VanVleet (FD $7600 DK $7100) is too good to be this cheap. He's been horrible over the last two weeks, but we've never seen him this affordable. He's still the starting point guard in Toronto and playing 35-40 minutes a night.
Shooting Guard
D'Angelo Russell FD - $7100 DK - $7000
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 41.55 DK - 42.45
It's been frustrating for Russell to play third-fiddle to Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns, but he will be asked to do a ton in the absence of KAT. He's just shy of a 30 percent usage rate with KAT off the floor, seeing a boost in minutes, shot attempts, and ball-handling duties. That's led to Russell scoring at least 32 DraftKings points in six straight games while posting a 39-point average in that span. That's the All-Star we saw in his Brooklyn days, and getting to face Indiana is incredible too. The Pacers rank 24th in both points allowed and defensive efficiency. This game is also expected to have a 240-point total, which could be the most stackable game on this slate!
Klay Thompson FD - $6200 DK - $6300
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 34.34 DK - 36.76
It's strange that Klay is still barely cracking $6K. We already talked about how Golden State is without its two best playmakers, leaving Thompson as the focal point of the offense. This sharpshooter was already getting hot with those guys, scoring at least 28 DK points in 11 of his last 14 games. He's also averaging 33 minutes and 17 shots a game in that stretch, dropping 42 fantasy points in back-to-back games. That alone makes him a worthy option at just $6K, and it's impossible to fade him with Green and Curry both missing this game. We also talked about how bad Utah has been against opposing guards, and Klay could go crazy with 20-25 shots being a realistic possibility.
Andrew Nembhard (FD $6000 DK $5600) has at least 37 DraftKings points in three straight games and is one of the safest plays out there if Tyrese Haliburton is out again.
Small Forward
Anthony Edwards FD - $8400 DK - $8800
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 46.36 DK - 47.62
We talked about how Towns' absence has boosted Russell's usage, but it's been the most significant bump for Edwards. He's now the focal point of this offense, posting a 31 percent usage rate with KAT off the floor. More importantly, he's averaging 1.3 DK points per minute in those circumstances. That's an elite rate from one of the most talented players in the NBA, especially since Edwards has at least 40 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. We expect that to be his floor as long as Towns is sidelined, and we didn't even discuss the best part of this. The Pacers are surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing SFs this season.
AJ Griffin FD - $4600 DK - $5100
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 29.46 DK - 29.75
Trusting rookies is always challenging, but this kid has looked incredible in this newfound role. John Collins has been ruled out for the next 2-3 weeks with an ankle issue, and the Hawks decided to stick this kid in the starting lineup. Since capturing this expanded role, Griffin has at least 26 DK points in all three starts, posting a 31-point average across 34 minutes a night. That's ridiculous from a $5K player, but this was one of the top prospects coming out of the draft. Facing New York isn't too bad either, with the Knicks ranked 21st in defensive efficiency and 19th in points allowed.
Kyle Anderson (FD $5100 DK $4700) has been starting for Karl-Anthony Towns and can stuff the stat sheet in a 35-minute role.
Power Forward
Zion Williamson FD - $9900 DK - $9600
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 45.95 DK - 45.84
We've been waiting to see Zion at full boar for most of his career, but he's finally running this offense. It took an injury to Brandon Ingram (toe) to earn that role, averaging 1.4 DK points per minute when BI is off the floor. To put that in perspective, that equates to 50 fantasy points if he plays 35 minutes! That might sound outlandish, but Zion is averaging over 51 fantasy points per game across his last six outings. That's the superstar we've been craving to see, and we certainly don't expect this 29th-ranked Detroit defense to slow him down. In addition, the Pistons own a 28th OPRK against opposing PFs this year.
P.J. Washington FD - $5900 DK - $5800
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 31.45 DK - 32
This guy is way too talented to still be below $6,000 on both sites. Washington has certainly flashed his volatility all year, but he's averaging 29 DraftKings points per game. We expect that average to rise as the season progresses because he should be asked to do more with Miles Bridges, LaMelo Ball, and Dennis Smith Jr all sidelined. The 24-year-old is hot right now, posting a 33-point average across his last 10 games. He's also playing 34 minutes a night in that span and has flashed a 56-point ceiling as well. He's bludgeoned Brooklyn in their last two meetings, averaging over 38 fantasy points per game. That's no surprise since the Nets own a 24th OPRK against opposing power forwards.
JaMychal Green (FD $3500 DK $3000) could start and play 30 minutes in the absence of Draymond. If he does, he's one of the best values of the day.
Center
Rudy Gobert FD - $6800 DK - $7300
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 39.54 DK - 40.18
It's just weird to see Rudy in this $7K price range. This guy has sat between $8,000-$9,000 for most of his career, and it's just a matter of time before he returns to that. The Frenchman has been terrible over the last two weeks, but he still averaged 37 DK points per game across his first 17 outings in Minny. That used to be his floor, and we expect him to get much better with KAT sitting on the bench. That should bump Gobert's rebounds, usage, shot attempts, and minutes, making him a heck of a value in this price range. The matchup is the best part of this, though, with the Pacers surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing centers.
Clint Capela FD - $6200 DK - $6700
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 35.98 DK - 36.15
Anytime Capela gets big minutes, he needs to be considered for DFS. That's what's happening right now, playing 30-35 minutes a night in the absence of Collins. That's led to Capela scoring at least 29 DraftKings points in 12 of his last 14 games, totaling a 36-point average across 29 minutes a night. That's an elite per-minute rate, but Capela has flashed that throughout his career. He's also playing 31 minutes across his last seven outings, and Capela should be an $8K player in that type of role. Facing the Knicks is the icing on the cake, sitting 21st in defensive efficiency ratings.
Nicolas Claxton (FD $6600 DK $6200) is averaging 32 DraftKings points per game across his last six outings and faces a Charlotte team surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers.
