Welcome back football fans. Week 13 in the NFL is here and DFSR has you covered. Earlier in the week, we look at our top cash game picks and now it's time to look at some stacks that help us get to the top of or GPP contests. Let's get started.
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Opponent LV
Proj Points FD - 23.73 DK - 23.73
Opponent LV
Proj Points FD - 15.3 DK - 18.85
Opponent LAC
Proj Points FD - 27.08 DK - 29.29
This is one of three games with a 50+ total this week and gives us two below-average(LAC ranked 22nd) to terrible(LV ranked 32nd) defence's to target. If multi-entering, it makes sense to attack this game in multiple ways but if playing just one lineup, this is how I am attacking it, ownership or not.
This combination gives us a ton of flexibility as all three players fall into the second tier of pricing at their positions and it also attacks both defence's biggest weaknesses and that starts with the Raiders who are dead last in DVOA against the pass. That is perfect timing for Justin Herbert who is coming off his best fantasy effort of the season last week and has tallied 20 or more DraftKings points in both games with Keenan Allen back in the lineup. It doesn't even feel like the two are fully on the same page yet either as Allen has caught just 10 of 15 balls but has 94 yards in one game and 49 yards and a touchdown in the other. If those are his floor games moving forward, I think there is a shot we could see the ceiling this week.
Speaking of ceiling games, Josh Jacobs is coming off his in an overtime game against the Seahawks where he rushed 33 times for 229 yards and two touchdowns while also adding another 74 receiving yards. While I don't think he duplicates that effort, half those fantasy points would suffice, to be honest. Either way, Jacobs is getting elite usage averaging 25.9 touches per game going back to week four(8 games), has five 100+ yard rushing games in that time and is averaging 28 DK/24.2 FD points per game. He now faces a Chargers defense that ranks 29th in DVOA against the rush and has given up the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs.
Like Herbert and Allen, we aren't avoiding any ownership with this stack but we are getting extreme consistency, second-tier pricing, and huge PTS/$ upside.
Other players to consider in this game stack: Davante Adams(LV), Joshua Palmer(LAC), Austin Ekeler(LAC)
Opponent TEN
Proj Points FD - 23.43 DK - 23.43
Opponent TEN
Proj Points FD - 15.92 DK - 19.11
There are a lot of good spots this week but it really feels that the Eagles' passing game is going a bit overlooked. I get it, they rush the fourth-most in the league and are 4.5-point favorites at home this week but hear me out. First of all, let's look at the matchup as the Titans sit atop their division on the back of Derrick Henry and the run game combined with a run defense that is league-best when looking at DVOA. Miles Sanders is not an elite back that they will continue feeding at sub-three yards per carry rate and this should force Hurts to reach a near-ceiling game in terms of pass attempts. That is great news if we get him at low ownership as the Titans are 17th in DVOA against the pass and have allowed the 6th and 2nd most fantasy points to quarterbacks and wide receivers.
More good news here in terms of the matchup as the Titans have also allowed a league-high in yards on deep balls this season. Stacking Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown takes advantage of that as Hurts has the 5th most completions of 40+ yards while Brown has the 8th most receptions of 20+ yards and has an aDOT(10.6) two yards deeper than Devonta Smith who is also a stack option this week.
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 24.58 DK - 24.58
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 17.78 DK - 21.66
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 6.68 DK - 8.2
We better not go through the stacking article without mentioning the game with the best chance of shooting out. There are multiple ways to attack this game but this one is by far my favorite as it gets you the top quarterback on the slate with his top pass catcher. Patrick Mahomes leads the league in passing and has been an absolute monster lately throwing for 300+ yards in six straight games(364.5 average) and also leads the league with games throwing for three or more touchdowns(6). Not only has he been consistent week to week, but he has also provided tourney-winning upside leading the league in completions of 20+ yards(52) and 40+ yards(9). While the matchup doesn't look great overall as the Bengals are Top 10 in DVOA against the pass they have allowed a lot of big plays and the fourth-most yards on deep balls in 2022(via NFL Savant).
Even with the price tag, Travis Kelce is likely the highest-owned tight end this week and it makes sense as there is a lot of value this week to make it work. That is good news as he has been on another level this season leading all tight ends with an average of 22.7 DK/18.4 FD points per game and the gap between him and 2nd(Mark Andrews) is about the same as 2nd and 20th. Kelce also leads the league in RedZone targets(26) which is seven more than Stefon Diggs in second. The one value play helping us get to Mahomes/Kelce is their teammate and rookie Skyy Moore who is finally getting his opportunity in the offence. He played a season-high 27 snaps last week and now has six targets in back-to-back games with catches of 18 yards in each.
If running it back, the Bengals wideouts is where I will be focusing as the Chiefs are 18th in DVOA against the pass and have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to wideouts.
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