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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 11/30/22
We could be in for a wild slate here. We have 26 of the 30 NBA teams taking the floor, leaving us with one of the largest player pools of the season. With large player pools come lengthy injury reports. We have dozens of big-name players missing out today, and more will be coming. With that in mind, let's kick things off with the point guards.
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Point Guard
Jamal Murray FD - $7100 DK - $7200
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 36.44 DK - 37.33
Murray got off to a slow start in his return from ACL surgery, but he's been rolling recently. The Nuggets point guard has at least 33 DraftKings points in 10 of his last 11 games, scoring 45 fantasy points in three of his last four. That's the bubble Murray we saw a few years ago, and he was approaching a five-figure price tag when he played like that in Orlando. One of those 45-point gems came against the Rockets, which is no surprise since they rank 24th in points allowed and 28th in defensive efficiency while surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing PGs. He also did that damage in just 25 minutes in that blowout, and it'd be scary to see the line he could post in his usual 35 minutes.
De'Anthony Melton FD - $6200 DK - $7600
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 34.94 DK - 34.41
Um, why did these DFS sites drop Melton's price? It has to be because of the return of Joel Embiid, but that doesn't really matter. The Sixers are still missing Tyrese Maxey and James Harden, leaving Melton with as many backcourt minutes as he can handle. The stat-stuffer has scored at least 23 DK points in 13 of his last 15 games, generating a 32-point average in that span. That's all you can ask for from a player in this price range, and it should continue with Harden and Maxey's monster usage sitting on the sidelines. He's also flashed a 40-point upside four times over the last three weeks, and he can do that anytime with his elite per-minute averages.
Tyrese Haliburton (FD $9600 DK $9500) should be hungry against the team that traded him. He's got at least 61 DK points in two of his last three games and should slice through this 26th-ranked Sacramento defense.
Shooting Guard
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander FD - $10400 DK - $10300
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 53.33 DK - 52.94
Gilgeous-Alexander is stepping into superstar territory, and this is a spot where he can go nuts. His biggest asset here is a matchup with San Antonio, who sit third in pace and dead-last in both points allowed and defensive efficiency. That's bad news against a stud like this, with SGA averaging over 51 DraftKings points per game for the year. He's also scored at least 42 fantasy points in 17 of 20 game, despite playing in numerous blowouts. This is one of the few times we don't anticipate a lopsided game, and Shai should go nuclear in such a tasty matchup.
Collin Sexton FD - $5100 DK - $5400
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 30.1 DK - 31.3
It's hard to understand why these DFS sites are keeping Sexton so low. This guy was a $7K player as the starting point guard in Cleveland, and he's essentially stepped into the same role here. Sexton has been asked to take over starting point guard duties in the absence of Mike Conley, scoring at least 27 DK points in the four games since then. He's also posting a 33-point average across 31 minutes a night, and that's usually the production you see from a $6K player. Facing the Clippers is usually a concerning matchup, but this LA defense is a shell of itself with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George both sidelined.
Dennis Schröder (FD $4800 DK $4700) is the starting point guard in LA right now, averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game. He also flirted with a 40-point average in four meetings with Portland last year.
Small Forward
Anthony Edwards FD - $8000 DK - $8000
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 37.38 DK - 38.88
I'm excited to see what ANT does with Karl-Anthony Towns sidelined for the next month. This team needs him to run the show if they're going to compete, and he should be asked to do that in his absence. With KAT off the floor this season, Edwards leads the team with a 33 percent usage rate while averaging 1.3 DK points per minute. That's an elite rate, which would equate to 50 fantasy points if he plays the 35-40 minutes we anticipate. We've seen glimpses of that recently, with Edwards scoring at least 40 DraftKings points in six of his last seven games. Facing a 21st-ranked Memphis defense isn't so bad either, with ANT dropping 46 fantasy points in their one matchup three weeks ago.
Herbert Jones FD - $5100 DK - $4800
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 30.17 DK - 29.01
We've always loved Herb as a player, but his usage has shrunk to nothing this season. That's no surprise since this roster has CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, and Zion Williamson, but that's not an issue here. McCollum and Ingram have already been ruled out for this game, guaranteeing Jones a 40-minute role. He's also going to see a bump in shot attempts and usage, which is impressive since he's one of the best defensive players in the NBA. Herb had 34 DK points across 39 minutes in the last game without those guys, and you can't ask for any more from a $5K player!
Trey Murphy III (FD $4900 DK $5100) should play 35 minutes with Ingram, Nance, and McCollum all out, which is fantastic since he has at least 29 DraftKings points in three of his last four games.
Power Forward
Zion Williamson FD - $8500 DK - $8600
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 44.22 DK - 44.68
We just mentioned how we like two of these cheaper New Orleans players, but this is the best play of the bunch. Zion should be running this offense with CJ, BI, and Nance all missing this game, likely looking at 20 shots, 35-40 minutes, and a 30 percent usage rate. With those guys sidelined on Monday, Zion collected 23 points, eight rebounds, eight assists, and three blocks. That's his second game with at least 50 DK points in his last three outings, and we genuinely believe that's his floor with so much usage on the bench. Toronto is a tough matchup, but no one can cover a beast like Zion, particularly in an expanded role like this.
Evan Mobley FD - $7200 DK - $7100
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 39.71 DK - 40.37
Mobley is a monster in the making, and he will be tough to avoid as long as Jarrett Allen remains out. That's forcing Mobley to play more center minutes, increasing his usage, minutes, shot attempts, and rebounds for this shorthanded team. In the last two games without Allen, Mobley has at least 41 DK points in both of those. That's a ridiculous total from a $7K player, and this 21-year-old is just scratching the surface of what he could become. Facing Philly can be challenging, but it also means Mobley will be forced into 40 minutes to defend Joel Embiid.
John Collins (FD $5800 DK $5700) is too good to be below $6K. He's got 40-plus DK points in back-to-back games and will have to play big minutes to oppose this massive Magic frontcourt.
Center
Nikola Jokic FD - $11200 DK - $11700
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 63.18 DK - 65.47
The Joker is the best play on the board, and it's not relatively close. The two-time reigning MVP has been the best player in fantasy for three years now, averaging over 60 fantasy points per game since 2020. His consistency in that span is the most incredible thing, scoring at least 39 DraftKings points in all but two games since the start of last year. That's hard even to fathom, and he'll definitely reach that floor in this magical matchup. Not only does Houston rank near the bottom of every defensive metric, but Jokic dropped 60 DK points on them Monday night, despite playing just 27 minutes in that blowout.
Jusuf Nurkic FD - $6800 DK - $6900
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 40.01 DK - 42.2
It's funny that we have Nurk and Jokic in here together because these guys played together not that long ago. It didn't work for whatever reason, but separating them has been outstanding for both of their careers. The reason we like Nurkic here is the boost in usage. He's flirting with a 30 percent usage rate with Damian Lillard off the floor while averaging over 1.2 DK points per minute. That's led to Nurk scoring at least 36 DraftKings points in five straight games while scoring 42 or more in his last three outings. That's ridiculous from a sub-$7K player, and it should continue since LA owns a 27th OPRK against opposing centers. That was on full display when Jusuf scored at least 39 DK points in all three of their meetings last season.
Jonas Valanciunas (FD $5500 DK $6400) should see a usage bump with Ingram, McCollum, and Nance all out. In the seven games JV has played at least 25 minutes this year, he's averaging over 40 fantasy points per game.
