Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic dribbles the ball against the Phoenix Suns during the first half of an NBA basketball game in Phoenix, Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2022. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
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Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 59.7 DK - 64.03
On a short slate, it won’t be easy to fit Luka Doncic’s salary into lineups simply because we might not find enough savings. But he’s a tough fade here all things considered. For a guy who was already a superstar and MVP candidate, Doncic has taken it to even another level, averaging 33 points per game to go with his 8.7 rebounds, and 8.4 assists. This game against the Warriors has the highest total (227.5) of the three and should be an up-and-down affair. It’s easier to fit Doncic on FanDuel where the price is a little lower, but DraftKings will be a tough pull unless a true punt comes into play, which might not be the case.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 41.92 DK - 44.52
The Knicks get the best matchup of the slate against the Detroit Pistons who rank 29th in defensive efficiency on the season. This game has a 225 over/ under with the Knicks as -4 favorites. Brunson has stepped it up of late, averaging 30.8 points and 6.8 assists over the last four games. One of those was an overtime game, but he’s taking more than 20 shots per game in that stretch. The Knicks are desperate for a win here after losing three of their last four. I think he plays a lot of minutes as long as the game stays close.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 28.47 DK - 32.05
With Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and now John Wall out for this game, it sure seems like Reggie Jackson should be in line for major minutes. After all, the Clippers are way down on scorers and guys who can create their own shots. But Jackson’s minutes and production have been a bit variable this season, which is one of the reasons his price remains in the lower middle tier. But I do think this is the prime spot for him to hit and exceed value seeing as how LA is dealing with so many injuries. I think we can be a bit more aggressive on the minutes here.
Strongly consider Terance Mann (FD 5500 DK 4800)
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 29.24 DK - 30.78
Justise Winslow has been in the starting lineup over the last couple of games with Damian Lillard on the shelf and he’s had a higher minutes floor, running 37 and 46 (5 in OT) respectively. He isn’t the first or second (or third) option in the offense, but he contributes enough across the stat line to keep a higher floor even at these prices. In the last two games, he’s averaged 10 points, nine rebounds, and five assists. These are in line with his per 36 numbers and I think that is around his minutes' floor in this game.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 19.38 DK - 21.06
Coffey got the start last game with Paul George out and Luke Kennard on the shelf as well. He ended up running 28 minutes and took only eight shots, neither of which were all that inspiring. But again, the Clippers will be down another guy in Wall for this game and I think the minutes could and should push into the 30s. He’s coming so cheap on both sites that I think we need to strongly consider him as a punt play if he’s in the starting lineup again.
Norman Powell (FD 6000 DK 5400) could see a lot of ownership after 19 shots off the bench last game too.
If he’s in the starting lineup once again, then consider Saddiq Bey (FD 5400 DK 5700), especially on FanDuel.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 39.7 DK - 43.91
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 35.01 DK - 33.68
Again, we are going to want some Knicks exposure here because of the matchup and the way Thibs continues to run the core of his starters. In close games, the expectation is that Randle plays about 35 minutes and on the season he’s averaging about 21 points and nine rebounds. The Pistons don’t have much in the way of interior defense as it is and are dealing with a whole host of injuries to their starting unit. I like Randle on both sites and think the floor is plenty high considering how he’s used in the offense and that this is such a good matchup for the slate.
Meanwhile, Robinson has been back in the starting lineup and last game finally dialed up the minutes to the place we would like to see if we could play him consistently in cash games. He played 32 and finished with 16 points, seven rebounds, and five blocks. He’s never going to be featured heavily in the offense, so you’ll need to get there on the boards and blocks, but he’s priced that way as well. The risk is the minutes get buzzed off early, something that’s been the case with Mitch-Rob for what seems like forever.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 23.44 DK - 24.09
The key here is Looney being able to stay on the court for 24+ minutes which hasn’t always been the case for him. The Warriors definitely will move this number around based on the matchup. But it’s worth pointing out that in four games against the Mavericks last season, he averaged 24 minutes per. That’s just enough of a baseline to consider him as a cash game play on both sites, but especially on DraftKings where he’s coming close to $4K. Again, there just isn’t a ton of savings on this slate (as of this writing) and we will need to pull from a couple of different places.
Strongly consider Christian Wood for cash
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