Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (7) looks to pass against the Toronto Raptors during the second half of an NBA basketball game Monday, Jan. 4, 2021, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)
The injuries have run rampant through the NBA this season. It looks like half the league is on the injury report right now, and you have to work extra hard to figure out these rotations this season. We surely have more absences happening here, with Philly's shorthanded roster taking the floor.
The good news is that we only have one team in the second half of a back-to-back set, which should help us avoid too much resting. We'll also offer up all value plays below $10K because you know that studs like Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo are the best plays on the board. These recommendations should allow you to squeeze in those studs, which is the most important thing on a slate like this. With that in mind, let's kick things off with the point guards.
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Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 35.79 DK - 37.08
We've always loved Milton's game, and it's nice to see him get a starting job with Tyrese Maxey and James Harden both going down. That's forced Milton into four straight starts at point guard, scoring at least 29 DraftKings points in five consecutive games. Shake is also scoring over 40 DK points per game in that span and is loving this newfound 40-minute role. Any player who's a primary ball-handler and playing 40 minutes should never be this cheap, especially since he dropped 56 fantasy points on this Orlando defense just a few nights ago. That's far from surprising, with the Magic owning a 27th OPRK against opposing guards.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 28.79 DK - 30.48
Jackson got off to a rough start this season, but he's been cruising recently. Like Milton, Jackson has been stepping up with the Clippers two best players sidelined. That happens to be Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, leaving Jackson with 35 minutes, 15-20 shots, and a 25 percent usage rate. That's the role we saw from Jackson when he was a $7,000 player last season, and he's been playing at that level for two weeks now. Reggie has at least 24 DraftKings points in five of his previous seven games, generating a 32-point average over his last five fixtures. That's all you can ask for from a sub-$6K player, and we expect it to continue with Indiana ranked 21st in both points allowed and defensive efficiency. In two meetings with the Pacers last season, R-Jax provided a 37-point average against them.
Ben Simmons (FD $7900 DK $7100) has been crushing the last two weeks, scoring at least 33 DK points in five straight games en route to a 41-point average.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 38.22 DK - 40.9
It's hard to understand why Simons remains in this $8K price range. He's taking over this offense in the absence of Damian Lillard, scoring at least 31 DraftKings points in 12 straight games. Anfernee is also averaging 40 DK points per game across 37 minutes a night in this expanded role, which is right on par with what he did when Dame was out last year. This guy is playing 40 minutes and taking 20 shots a night while handling the ball on almost every possession. That ridiculous role makes him impossible to fade against Brooklyn, surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing guards this season.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 31.59 DK - 32.22
Smart hasn't had a huge upside this year, but we expect that top to pop off here with Jayson Tatum out of the lineup. That's 35 minutes, 30 points, and a 30 percent usage rate out of the lineup, leaving the rest of these guys to feast. We expect Smart to be the primary ball-handler in this circumstance, averaging 28 DK points per game with JT in the lineup this year. We expect that to be his floor here, scoring 47, 48, 38, and 42 fantasy points in the four games that Tatum sat out last year. Any one of those would be absurd from a $6K player, making Smart the best per-dollar play on the board.
Klay Thompson (FD $6000 DK $6000) is starting to get hot, scoring at least 28 DK points in eight of his last 10 games.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 46.42 DK - 48.21
Brown should run the show for Boston with Tatum out, and he needs to be in everyone's lineup. With JT off the floor this season, JB is posting an exorbitant 37 percent usage rate while averaging 1.4 DK points per minute. That means if he plays the 35-40 minutes we anticipate, he should flirt with 50-60 DraftKings points. That's a tantalizing total from an $8K player, which really showed last season. Brown scored at least 42 DraftKings points in the five games that Tatum missed last year, averaging 53 fantasy points per game in those outings. He's walloped Washington, too, scoring at least 37 DK points in their last four matchups en route to a 46-point average.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 40.34 DK - 40.62
While Milton has taken over ball-handling duties in Philly, Harris has become the primary playmaker. Over his last 12 games played. Toby is averaging 35 fantasy points per game, scoring at least 43 DraftKings points in three of his last seven outings. That ceiling is why we love him because he posted a season-high 46 DK points in this same matchup on Friday. That's no surprise with how outstanding this Orlando matchup is, with the Magic sitting 22nd in defensive efficiency ratings. As long as Harris keeps leading the team with a 29 percent usage rate with Harden, Embiid and Maxey all sidelined, he needs to be utilized in DFS.
Justise Winslow (FD $4400 DK $4300) has been playing much more in the absence of Damian Lillard, dropping 27 DK points across 46 minutes in Portland's most recent game. If you see any $4K player playing 40 minutes, he needs to be considered.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 43.91 DK - 40.19
This 23-year-old has the potential to be one of the best players in the NBA. His versatility on both ends of the floor makes is what makes him so dangerous, averaging 44 DraftKings points per game since the opener. That's a small three-game sample size, but it's scary that he's doing that damage in just 25 minutes a night. This guy has always been one of the best per-minute producers in the NBA, and we know he's going to get closer to 35 minutes the deeper we get into the season. A matchup with New York does not concern us either, ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency and 24th in points allowed. In their two matchups last season, JJJ posted a 40-point average against them. We also don't mind that Desmond Bane is sidelined, giving Jackson more usage and shot attempts in his absence.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 26.52 DK - 27.52
This is Reggie's and Morris' offense with Kawhi and PG13 sidelined. Morris thrived in that role last season, averaging over 30 fantasy points per game when both of those guys were out. That's essentially who we've seen recently, with Morris maintaining a 27-point average this year. The bump in usage makes him valuable because Morris leads the team in minutes, shot attempts, and usage when those two superstars are sidelined. Facing Indiana is incredible, too, with the Pacers posting some of the worst defensive numbers in the NBA. Morris averaged 29 fantasy points per game in tho\eir two matchups last season.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD $12000 DK $12400) is one of the safest bets for 50-60 fantasy points, and he's a great pairing with all of these value plays.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 36.75 DK - 38.72
The theme in this article is players filling in for studs. We have another one of those here, with Nurkic posting massive numbers in the absence of Lillard. Since the start of last season, Nurk has a 25 percent usage rate with Dame off the floor while averaging over 1.2 DK points per minute. That rate is the most important thing here because Nurkic is averaging 33 DK points per game across 28 minutes a night this year. Those minutes are low due to some early-season injuries, but he played 38 minutes in Portland's most recent outing while scoring at least 36 fantasy points in three straight games. Brooklyn can be a tough matchup, but Nurk has at least 29 DraftKings points in each of their last nine meetings while averaging nearly 40 fantasy points per game.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 32.02 DK - 32.6
Big Al doesn't have a huge ceiling, but he shouldn't be this cheap. The veteran has scored at least 26 DraftKings points in 10 of his last 11 games, generating a 33-point average in those 10 outings. That's brilliant from a $6K player, but this guy has been doing this for a decade. He also fell just shy of a 40-point average when Robert Williams was out last year, and should be flirting with a season-high in usage with Williams and Tatum missing this game. Big Al played four games without JT last year, averaging 36 DK points per game across 33 minutes a night.
Onyeka Okongwu (FD $4600 DK $4200) will be one of the best values of the day if Clint Capela is out again.
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