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DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Thursday 11/17
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Guards
Jaden Ivey FD - $6800 DK - $6900
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 32.1 DK - 34.54
Let's start off this small slate with a mid-range value in Jaden Ivey, who has consistently outperformed his price over the short term. Some of it has to do with the near 8% uptick in usage with Cade Cunningham out of the lineup the last three games but he was playing terrific even with him in the lineup. Over the previous five games(2 with Cunningham, 3 without), Ivey has averaged just over 18 points with 6.4 rebounds, 5.4 assists, and tallied 35 or more fantasy points in four of those games while averaging 38 across all five. The matchup isn't ideal but considering he checks the price and opportunity boxes, I am on board in all formats.
John Wall FD - $6000 DK - $5700
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 31.62 DK - 33.45
On the other side of this game, we have more opportunity plays as Kawhi remains out, Luke Kennard is doubtful, and Paul Geroge is now highly questionable after picking up an injury last game. This has many projecting John Wall to get his first start of the season which would be welcomed with the lack of overall value on this small slate. The only downside here is that the price has been on the rise for over a week as Wall has been playing terrific off the bench with double-digit shots in five straight while averaging 13.6 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game equating to just under 30 fantasy points per game. At these prices, I love that as a floor and if he starts I would say the ceiling allows us to also play him in GPP formats, as well.
De'Aaron Fox FD - $9600 DK - $9000
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 47.46 DK - 50.37
Being able to pay up for multiple top plays tonight is going to be largely dependent on the amount of value that pops up but Fox is at the top of that list. The Kings get arguably the best matchup on the board at home as seven-point favorites against a Spurs team that runs a Top 5 pace, ranks 29th in defensive efficiency, and 28th in fantasy points to guards. For Fox, he has provided a very high floor with at least 36 DraftKings points in 11 of 12 games and the one he didn't hit that, he was injured early. Take out that injury game, and he is taking over 18 shots a game while averaging 26.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, 6.7 assists, and 1.9 blocks+steals for over 46 fantasy points a game. All things considered, I love the floor and ceiling combination here with Fox and will have exposure in all formats.
Small Forward
Keldon Johnson FD - $7100 DK - $7400
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 34.09 DK - 37.92
This game is likely the landing point for the chalk tonight with a huge total(236.5) and the fact both teams are ranked bottom five in defensive efficiency and Top 10 in pace. On the Spurs' side of the ball, it's Johnson that I trust the most and it starts with the team-leading 28% usage rate as he has taken 15 or more shots in all but two games on the season. He has been solid from behind the arc(42%) and his contributions across multiple categories(22.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists per game) gives him a solid floor of just under 37 fantasy points per game. I will have exposure in all formats.
Also Conisder: Norman Powell(LAC) if he were to get the start if Paul George ruled out
Power Forward/Center
Jerami Grant FD - $8400 DK - $7600
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 32.67 DK - 35.14
The biggest decision on this slate likely comes down to paying up for and building around Kevin Durant or not. At this time of the day with a lack of overall value, I am choosing to go a balanced route with my lineup and that puts Jerami Grant ahead of Durant on my list at forwards, at least in terms of points per dollar. The overall usage(23%) doesn't look great but it has trended up recently as he has taken 15 or more shots in four straight and six of his last seven games which has helped push his fantasy average up over 41 points per game. The price is a little better on DraftKings, but I like Grant's value against a weaker Nets defense in all formats.
Jakob Poeltl FD - $7800 DK - $7200
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 35.91 DK - 37.49
Like I mentioned with Johnson above, this is a game we are going to want lots of exposure to with its high total pitting two teams who run fast and suck defensively. While Poeltl hasn't been the most consistent player in terms of his usage and minutes, he has provided a consistent fantasy return on the back of some elite rebounding. He has recorded double-digit rebounds in eight of 15 games and seven or more in all but one game. That is great news for his floor tonight as the Kings rank 26th in rebounding this season. Fire up Poeltl in all formats.
