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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 11/16/22
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Point Guard
Luka Doncic FD - $12500 DK - $12700
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 61.84 DK - 62.91
If you want a guaranteed 60 fantasy points in your lineup, pick Luka. This dude is leading the NBA with 64 DraftKings points per game, scoring at least 52 fantasy points in all but one game this year. That's no surprise when looking at his role, leading the league with a 38 percent usage rate. He's going to play 35-40 minutes, take 20-25 shots and handle the ball on every possession. That makes him impossible to fade against Houston, who rank 28th in points allowed and 29th in defensive efficiency. They're also surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing PGs, which was on full display when Doncic dropped 60-plus fantasy points in both of their meetings last season.
Jamal Murray FD - $6400 DK - $6500
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 32.3 DK - 33.41
Doncic is the best pure points play on the board, but Murray is our favorite per-dollar play out there. The Nuggets lost Nikola Jokic to dreaded COVID protocols, and it will force the rest of this offense to step up. Murray is the primary benefactor, leading the team with a 39 percent usage rate when Joker is laughing it up on the bench. The simple fact is, Denver needs to make up 35 minutes, 15-20 shots, and primary ball-handling duties in addition to Jokic's 30-point triple-double averages. Murray should do most of that, which is impressive since he's scored at least 32 DraftKings points in six of his last seven games. We also don't mind that the Knicks own a 25th OPRK against opposing point guards, either.
Monte Morris (FD $5300 DK $5200) has at least 28 DK points in B2B games and shouldn't be this cheap as Washington's starting point guard.
Shooting Guard
Darius Garland FD - $7800 DK - $9000
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 43.82 DK - 45.64
It's about time that these sites raised Garland's price tag. This guy is stepping into All-Star territory, and he's only going to get better at the age of 22. The young guard had a career-high 51 points in his most recent outing en route to a 71-point masterpiece on DraftKings. We don't expect that to duplicate here, but 50-plus fantasy points are in play with Donovan Mitchell nicked up. That means Garland's shot attempts and usage will rise by 10-20 percent, which is massive for such a talented player. If you take out the stinker when DG got injured, he's averaging over 42 fantasy points per game. If Mitchell is out, lock Garland into all of your lineups!
Bruce Brown FD - $5100 DK - $5100
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 25.78 DK - 25.55
It's tough to gauge what the Nuggets will do here in the absence of Jokic, but we have to assume Brown will be a significant part of their offense. He's already been doing the playmaking for the second unit, averaging 14 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 6.0 assists over the last two games. That equates to a 40-point average on DraftKings, and that's obviously an absurd total from a $5K player. We'd probably recommend Brown even if Jokic were in the lineup, but he's one of the safest plays out there with the two-time MVP sitting at home. It's not like New York is a scary matchup, surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards.
Devin Booker (FD $9000 DK $9200) is one of the safest plays out there with a usage bump in the absence of Chris Paul. He dropped 53 DraftKings points in his one meeting with this terrible Warriors defense.
Small Forward
OG Anunoby FD - $8100 DK - $7200
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 40.11 DK - 39.14
It feels weird to recommend Anunoby in this price range, but this dude has really become a stud in Toronto. He's clearly one of the best defensive players in the NBA, but his 35 DraftKings points per game are nothing to scoff at. That has earned him this lofty price tag, posting a 41-point average across his last 10 games. The recent bump in production is far from surprising when you peek into the training room, with Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Precious Achiwua, Gary Trent, and Otto Porter all on the injury report. We expect most of those guys to sit, and it should force OG into another playmaking night!
Michael Porter Jr. FD - $6200 DK - $5900
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 34.65 DK - 36.29
As someone who lives in Denver, I can't stand this guy's game. In any case, this is DFS, and we must put our personal preferences aside. This talented youngster still loves to chuck up shots, making him an enticing option on this slate. We've already discussed in-depth how much we like this offense in the absence of Joker, with MPJ likely looking at 30-35 minutes and 20-25 shots in this spot. That expanded role becomes even more intriguing with Porter scoring at least 29 fantasy points in four of his last five games while dropping a 41-spot in his most recent outing. All of that should've earned Porter an $8K price tag, but these DFS sites are clearly sleeping at the wheel.
Herbert Jones (FD $4600 DK $4700) could see a bump with Zion Williamson sidelined.
Power Forward
Evan Mobley FD - $6800 DK - $6200
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 39.62 DK - 38.7
Kevin Love FD - $4900 DK - $5600
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 33.11 DK - 35.1
These Cavalier big men have been frustrating all year, but with one of them out, we love them in this spot. That happens to be Jarrett Allen, forcing Mobley and Love into much more prominent roles. Let's start by talking about Mobley, averaging over 31 DK points per game in a "down" year. He's also got 13 rebounds in back-to-back games, and it's clear he's going to take care of the boards in the absence of Allen. This kid is too good to be this cheap, and we'll capitalize on it as long as Allen remains out.
Love is the riskier option of the two, but this guy has been a per-minute monster over the last two years. He's averaging 27 DK points per game across 21 minutes a night this year, and we love that since he's expected to start and play much more in this game. He's played at least 23 minutes in 38 games since the start of last year, posting a 33-point average in those outings. If you get that from a $5K player, you already have a piece of the optimal lineup.
P.J. Washington FD - $6000 DK - $5300
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 31.23 DK - 31.58
Washington is a GPP option because of his volatility, but this guy has one of the biggest upsides from a player in this price range. The big man has scored at least 28 DraftKings points eight times this season, scoring 43 DK points twice. That's impossible to find from a $5,300 player, but this guy has a versatile game for a big man. We believe one of those ceiling games is in play against the Pacers, ranked 27th in points allowed and 28th in defensive efficiency. They're also allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing PFs, and we genuinely believe PJ will get better with LaMelo Ball back in the fold.
Draymond Green (FD $5700 DK $6100) has at least 27 DK points in four of his last five games and is one of the only true triple-double threats in the $6K price range.
Center
Myles Turner FD - $7100 DK - $6900
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 38.18 DK - 36.45
I might be in the minority here, but I believe Turner will be an All-Star player in the near future. This guy can be elite on both ends of the floor, and he's finally getting the chance to show it with Domantas Sabonis playing in Sacramento. That has skyrocketed Turner's usage, rebounds, and shot attempts, averaging a career-best 38.4 DraftKings points per game. He's also got at least 38 fantasy points in each of his last three outings, generating a 47-point average in that span. If he keeps that up, Myles will be a $9K player before you know it. The matchup is the best part, with the Hornets allowing the most fantasy points to opposing centers.
Al Horford FD - $5500 DK - $5700
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 28.33 DK - 28.7
This is some of the most egregious pricing on this slate. Horford flirted with a 40-point average when Robert Williams was out last season, and he's starting to return to that stud this year. The big man has scored at least 26 DraftKings points in six straight games, surpassing 33 fantasy points in four of those. Getting 33 DraftKings points from a sub-$6K player is brilliant, and we expect him to play at this level as long as Rob-Will remains out. The matchup with Atlanta is awesome, too, with the Hawks owning a 26th OPRK against opposing centers. It also means Big Al will have to play big minutes to oppose Clint Capela, and he's one of the safest bets to exceed 5X value.
DeAndre Jordan (FD $4000 DK $3300) is horrible at basketball, but he might play 20-30 minutes as Denver's starting center. If that's the case, he's a great value in this price range with 10 rebounds in his back pocket.
