Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant (12) goes up to shoots while defended by Charlotte Hornets center Willie Hernangomez (9) in the second half of an NBA basketball game Sunday, Dec. 29, 2019, in Memphis, Tenn. (AP Photo/Karen Pulfer Focht)
If you played DFS over the weekend, you probably had a headache at some point. That Friday card was one of the craziest things I've ever seen, with dozens of big-name players getting ruled out. It feels like that's the way the NBA is headed, and following the news will put you way ahead of the field. The good news is that we have no team playing a B2B, which should limit some absences. We also have just three games making up this tiny Sunday card, but there's still plenty to discuss!
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Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 49.34 DK - 51.24
Ja just had his worst game of the season, but we need to look at the game script. Memphis was up by 40 points in the second half in that win over Charlotte, limiting Morant to a season-low in minutes. He still provided his elite per-minute averages, dropping 33 DK points across 24 minutes. That brings him to an average of 47 DraftKings points across 31 minutes a game. That's the highest total among all the healthy players, making Morant impossible to fade on a three-game slate. He's simply doing everything for this Grizzlies offense with Jaren Jackson Jr out, and we certainly don't expect him to struggle against a 25th-ranked Washington defense from last year.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 22.87 DK - 23.91
I might be an idiot for riding Reggie, but he will eventually have some ceiling games at a diminished price tag. R-Jax was well above $6K in a similar role last season, and this offense needs him to do more in the absence of Kawhi Leonard. The usage is still there for him to be a stud, with Jackson averaging 13 shots and 32.3 minutes over the last six outings. That's the same role we saw when he was $1,000 more last year, and it's just a matter of time before the shots start falling. He averaged 29 DraftKings points across 31 minutes a night last year, and a total like that would be impressive from such an affordable player. Facing Utah used to be tough, but Jackson had at least 35 fantasy points in two of their three matchups last year.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 42.81 DK - 43.84
It's been a "down" year for this All-Star, but he's still running the show for the Wiz. Beal has scored at least 27 DK points in every game, generating a 37-point average. What we love is his role, taking at least 16 shots in all but two games while regularly playing 35 minutes a night. He's also got a usage rate just below 30 percent, and he'll eventually get that average above 40 fantasy points as long as those usage numbers continue. A matchup with Memphis is marvelous, too, with the Grizzlies ranked 26th in points allowed. It's challenging to find an $8K player with a 50-point upside, but Beal definitely has that in this spot. Note: Bradley Beal has been ruled out. Kyle Kuzma and Kristaps Porzingis see big usage upticks.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 31.32 DK - 32.28
The Raptors are the best stack on the board. This team is notorious for playing their starters 40 minutes every time out, leading to Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet getting injured. In any case, that should force a ton of usage on the rest of these guys, with 40 points, 13 rebounds, 15 assists, and 70 minutes out of the lineup. Trent will be happy to take on the offensive load, scoring at least 26 DraftKings points in all but two games this year. He's also averaging 16 shots across 36 minutes a night in those outings, and those numbers could be his floor with FVV and Sia both nicked up. Facing Chicago is sensational, too, surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing SGs.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 43.6 DK - 45.01
When playing in a three-game slate like this, getting the two or three guaranteed studs into your lineup is imperative. PG13 is undoubtedly one of those guys, running this Clippers offense in the absence of Kawhi Leonard. He's got a 35 percent usage rate when Leonard is off the floor since the start of last season, averaging 1.4 DK points per minute. That's evident in George's recent form, posting a 54-point average across his last three games. The Clips need this guy to play 35 minutes, take 20 shots and handle the ball on every possession, making him the safest play on the slate against this rebuilt Utah roster.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 39.62 DK - 38.41
If we stack the Raptors, we have to use their defensive stud. That's Anunoby, who's averaging over 34 DraftKings points per game this season. He's also got at least 39 fantasy points in four straight outings, and it's clear he's doing much more in the absence of VanVleet. That's awesome since Siakam will be out here as well, leaving OG with one of the most expansive roles of his career. There's no safer bet for a player to play 35-40 minutes, especially one in this $6K price range. He should keep that recent surge going against Chicago, who owns a 30th OPRK against opposing small forwards this season.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 38.9 DK - 38.37
Toronto plays positionless basketball, with Siakam playing a ton of point guard throughout the season. That's scary since the other primary ball handler is also out, leaving Barnes as the primary distributor. This versatile forward can be elite in that sort of role, collecting 11 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists across 38 minutes in the Raps most recent game. He displayed that stat-stuffing ability in his Rookie of the Year campaign, and we love that he's got at least 44 fantasy points in two of the last three outings. That makes it hard to understand why he's still just $7,ooo because he's one of the only players in this price range with a legitimate triple-double upside.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 25.91 DK - 25.57
Why is Santi still just $4,500 on both sites? This youngster has been incredible filling in for Jaren Jackson Jr, averaging 23.4 DK points per game this season. That alone is a solid total from such a cheap player, but it looks even better since he has over 25 fantasy points in five of nine games this year. This team needs the Spaniard to step up with JJJ out for the next two months, and we can't fade him at this sort of dirt-cheap salary. Washington is a wonderful matchup, too, with the Wizards ranked 25th in total defense last year. It also looks like Aldama will match up with Kyle Kuzma, and that's not so bad, either!
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 41.47 DK - 41.62
The one reason Beal has had a down year is because of this guy. Porzingis has returned to the All-Star stud we saw in his Dallas days, averaging 39 DraftKings points per game. His recent form is even more ridiculous, scoring at least 53 fantasy points in two of his last three outings. That sort of ceiling is sensational from an $8K player, and we know KP can play at this level whenever he's motivated. That fantastic form should continue against a Memphis team missing their best defender, with the Grizzlies owning a 22nd OPRK against opposing big men this season. In his most recent meeting with Memphis, KP provided 41 DK points, despite taking just 11 shots.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 32.41 DK - 31.58
The Grizzlies needed this Kiwi to take over the boards with JJJ out for the foreseeable future, and it's led to Adams having a renaissance season. The big man has his season average up to 29 DraftKings points per game, combining for 91 DK points across his last two outings. A 45-point average from a sub-$6K player is absurd, but it's no surprise since Adams is seeing a massive boost in his rebounding and assists. Father Time was brilliant in his most recent matchup with the Wiz, dropping 44 DraftKings points across 29 minutes of play. All you need is 30 fantasy points for Adams to be a good value, and 40 seems more likely when evaluating all of these averages.
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