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DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Saturday 11/5
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Guards
CJ McCollum FD - $8100 DK - $8600
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 35.5 DK - 36.32
The price is at a season-high but it is certainly warranted as the usage has ticked up since the start of the season as he has taken 19 or more shots in five straight coming into tonight. He has also averaged 42 fantasy points in that time and their is room for growth on that, as well, with the shooting(39%) down from what we normally get from him. What I really like here is the matchup as it's a pace-up game for the Pels as the Hawks are 8th in pace and also rank 19th in overall defensive efficiency. All things considered, McCollum is a terrific play in all formats.
Jamal Murray FD - $5800 DK - $6200
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 29.02 DK - 30.3
Murray checks almost every box tonight starting with an elite matchup. He and the Nuggets face a Spurs team playing on a back-to-back, ranks 26th in defensive efficiency, 21st in fantasy points against guards, and runs a league-high pace. It also helps that Murray is currently playing his best basketball of the season playing 30+ minutes in back-to-back games with 19 and 21 shots 20+ points in each along with 34 fantasy points in each of those games. This is a great spot and the price is still down from the start of the season which has me loading up in all formats.
Dennis Smith Jr. FD - $7000 DK - $6600
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 34.38 DK - 33.21
Assuming the Hornets are still without LaMello Ball and Terry Rozier on Saturday I will continue to run Dennis Smith out there in all formats. He has been playing well as a starter averaging 12.3 points, 7.2 assists, 5.0 rebounds, and 2.6 steals+blocks per game across six starts and despite a dud against the Magic is averaging 34 fantasy points, as well. He also gets a top matchup against a Nets team in shambles with Kyrie suspended and ranking dead last in defensive efficiency to start the year. Stay tuned for news as Smith becomes a top PTS/$ guard if Ball and Rozier remain out.
Small Forward
Kevin Durant FD - $10600 DK - $10600
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 56.36 DK - 58.66
We went allin on Durant last night and it paid off as he dropped 28 points, 11 assists, and nine rebounds for 59 fantasy points and the line could have been even better had the Nets not blown out the Wiz so badly. We are going right back to him on Saturday as the increased role won't change with no Kyrie around. We can once again expect 20+ shots and an elite all-around fantasy game against a Hornets team that is also short-handed and while they are mid-pack in defensive efficiency(16th), they rank 24th in fantasy points to forwards. The price is likely to spike and get over $11K on both sites so buy low now while you still can.
Also Consider: Keldon Johnson(SA) who is getting elite usage in the offense(27%) and has provided a consistent 30-35 point fantasy floor in every game
Power Forward/Center
John Collins FD - $6700 DK - $6200
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 33.56 DK - 34.79
Consistent PTS/$ return is always what we are looking for in cash games and not many have been better than John Collins. He is coming off back-to-back double-doubles which could have been even better fantasy performances had the shooting not been a bit off(9 for 22). He now has five double-doubles in his last seven games, gets the volume with double-digit shots in six of eight games on the season while averaging 13.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks+ steals. Is in play on both sites in a projected high-scoring, close game but his best value is on DraftKings where the price is trending back down toward a season-low.
Nikola Jokic FD - $11400 DK - $11700
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 57.68 DK - 61.14
It always seems to come down to which stud to pay up for between Giannis and Jokic and I lean towards the latter tonight for a couple of reasons. Both are elite plays almost every single night but Jokic gets the better matchup tonight in a game with the highest total on the slate facing a Spurs team that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency, 28th in fantasy points against centers, and run the league's fastest pace. Joker nearly averages a triple-double on the season(20.3 points, 11.4 rebounds, 9.1 assists) and is an elite play in all formats.
