Los Angeles Clippers' Paul George (13) drives against Oklahoma City Thunder's Terrance Ferguson (23) during the second half of an NBA basketball game, Monday, Nov. 18, 2019, in Los Angeles. The Clippers won 90-88. (AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu)
This scheduling by the NBA has been maddening. We had just four games yesterday and two games tomorrow. That means we're looking at one of the largest slates of the season here, with all but a handful of teams taking the floor. That means we have a massive player pool to choose from, which can complicate things from a DFS perspective. It does lead to a ton of value, though, and we have some great plays to ride for this Wednesday card!
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Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 43.23 DK - 45.36
Everyone assumes that Giannis Antetokounmpo takes over when Khris Middleton (wrist) is out, but Holiday does some serious damage too. The elite two-way player sees his usage, minutes, and shot attempts increase without Middleton, combining for 119 DraftKings points over the last two games. He actually averaged over 40 fantasy points per game when Khris was out last year, and we love that he's playing 37 minutes a night in that span too. One of those masterpieces came against this disastrous Detroit defense, with Jrue dropping 53 fantasy points on Monday. That's no surprise since the Pistons have the worst defensive rating in the NBA.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 38.87 DK - 43.24
Simons was the beneficiary of the C.J. McCollum trade, and he looks like an All-Str whenever Damian Lillard is out of the lineup. That's forced Simons into the starting point guard job, posting a 33 percent usage rate when Dame is off the floor. This expanded role led to one of the best games of his career last weekend, amassing 53 DraftKings points on Friday. It's no surprise since he's expected to play 35-40 minutes and take 15-20 shots, which is massive for a sharpshooter like this. Memphis is a marvelous matchup, too, with the Griz ranked 29th in points allowed this season.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 45.33 DK - 48.4
It's been a struggle for the Clippers this season, and PG13 certainly hasn't helped. He knew that going into Monday's matchup with Houston, providing 35 points, nine rebounds, eight assists, and six steals in one of the greatest performances of the season. He's shown that ability before, and we love that he's running the show with Kawhi Leonard sitting on the bench. George picked up those 75 fantasy points against Houston, and that's no surprise since the Rockets own a 24th OPRK against opposing SGs. They were also dead last in defensive efficiency last year, and you better believe PG13 will go off once again.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 26.01 DK - 28.98
Why did these DFS sites keep Mitchell's price so low? We knew yesterday that De'Aaron Fox would be out here, but these sites decided to keep Mitchell at the same salary. That's bizarre because we know Davion will start at point guard here. He filled in for Fox on Monday, totaling 34 DK points across 31 minutes of action. That's the guy we saw for the final 10 games of the 2021 season, averaging 38 DK points per game across 40 minutes a night. That's absurd from a $5K player, and it makes Mitchell the best per-dollar play on the slate. Miami is not as bad of a matchup as it sounds, with the Heat ranked 20th in defensive efficiency ratings.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 40.25 DK - 42.34
This is going to be DeRozan's show tonight. The Bulls are already missing Lonzo Ball, but we know that Zach LaVine will be rested in this second half of a back-to-back set. With those two off the floor this season, DD has a 32 percent usage rate while averaging 1.4 DK points per minute. Both of those rates were higher in the same circumstances last season, with DeRozan averaging over 40 DraftKings points per game when LaVine was out. The matchup against Charlotte is sensational, too, sitting 22nd in defensive efficiency and 25th in points allowed last year.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 29.35 DK - 32.8
The Kings will be one of the best stacks of the day. All of these guys are way too cheap already, and they're all going to see a massive boost with Fox sidelined. Uncle Kevin should see a ton of ball-handling duties in his absence, scoring at least 43 DK points in back-to-back games. That makes it hard to believe that he's still sitting below $6K, especially since he will be one of the primary playmakers in this fantastic spot. The simple fact is, Sacramento is missing 35 minutes, 20 shots, and all of their ball-handling from Fox, which should force all of these guys to perform well above their salaries.
Jimmy Butler
If we're going to stack Sacramento, we need to run it back with Butler. If we expect all of those guys to get a full allotment of minutes, we need Jimmy to carry the load for Miami. He's done that all year, scoring at least 34 fantasy points in all eight games. He's also generating a 42-point average, and the numbers appear to be increasing the deeper we get into the season. It also looks like Tyler Herro will sit here after departing in Tuesday's game, and that'd put even more usage on Jimmy's plate. It's not like Sacramento is scary either, sitting bottom-three in points allowed and defensive efficiency last year.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 21.68 DK - 24
This is the final piece to our Sacramento stack. Barnes has developed into the veteran for this team, and it's hard to believe that he's still below $5K on both sites. This dude usually hovers around $6,000, and a slow start has lowered his salary way too much. The former Warrior has been rolling the last week, scoring at least 25 fantasy points in three straight games. He's also averaging over 35 minutes while taking double-digit shots in each of those. As long as that role is there, Barnes should never be this cheap. He's also another guy that benefits from Fox being out, and he's easily one of the safest bets to provide 6X value at this dirt-cheap price tag.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 53.69 DK - 57.15
Not enough people watch the Raptors. That's evident by the fact that Pascal is power forward and center eligible because this guy has been playing point guard for the Raps. It's strange to see a big man play point, but Siakam is averaging 26.1 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 7.4 assists per game. His role is also massive, averaging 37 minutes and 19 shots. These usage numbers paired with being the primary ball-handler make Pascal an elite play, and he could be asked to do even more if Fred VanVleet has to sit this game as well. San Antonio is also one of the best matchups, sitting third in pace and 25th in defensive ratings.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 33.19 DK - 35.21
This is some more egregious pricing. Houston was doing some funky things when they demoted Sengun to the bench earlier this season, but they've wised up recently. The talented Turkish center has been starting for over a week now, averaging 33 DraftKings points per game across 26 minutes a night this season. We've seen an elite rate like that throughout his short career, and he's only going to play more as the Rockets realize that he's their best playmaker. The Clippers are not a concerning matchup either, with Alperen accumulating 32 DK points in this matchup on Monday.
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