Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill runs with the ball after making the catch against the Baltimore Ravens during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
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Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 27.95 DK - 27.95
We are going to be spending up at quarterback this week almost for sure. There are just too many good options on the main slate to fade all of the upper tier guys. It’s just too tough. And with that in mind, fading Allen at all this season has been a major problem. He’s the top overall DraftKings scorer on the season despite playing one fewer game than basically all the next-closest guys. The Bills are -13 road favorites against the Jets in Week 9 and the latter does have a great defense this season. But Allen is just too good and the Bills pass too much to think Allen gets scripted down out of value even in a blowout.
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 24.14 DK - 24.14
Murray is coming off his best fantasy game of the season in Week 8 when he threw for 326 yards and ran for another 36 in the loss to the Vikings. Now he’ll face the Seahawks in a game that has the highest point total of the main slate (50). While Seattle hasn’t been terrible on defense from a DVOA perspective, they do allow the 4th-most opponent plays per game this season, meaning this is a pace-up matchup for Murray and the Cardinals. Having DeAndre Hopkins back in the mix makes this a much more potent offense and Murray running gives him a higher floor.
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 19.71 DK - 22.07
Stevenson has been good all season, but the real bonus has come in the last couple of weeks when he’s become a much bigger part of the passing game. He eight targets in each of the last two weeks and is averaging is averaging 22.3 touches (carries + targets) in the last three weeks. The Patriots are -5.5 home favorites against the Colts who are good against the run, but only and average defense overall. Stevenson is too cheap on DraftKings now for what he is doing in the passing game.
Opponent LV
Proj Points FD - 19.77 DK - 20.98
The Jaguars traded away James Robinson and gave Travis Etienne all of the usage in Week 8. He played 79% of the snaps and ended up carrying the ball 24 times for 156 yards and a touchdown. Plus, he added three targets in the passing game. And this was all in a loss to Denver. Now, he’ll get to face off against the Raiders who are ranked 29th in the league in DVOA though admittedly are better against the run than they are against the pass. But overall, they aren’t good. Etienne is an elite usage guy now and the price hasn’t come close to catching up on DraftKings.
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 13.32 DK - 15.04
Though the Bills just traded for Nyheim Hines, it doesn’t look like he’ll play this week. With them being such a big favorite over the Jets, this is usually where we want to have our running backs, especially if the game gets out of hand. It’s not always how the Bills roll, but he’s coming off playing 75% of the snaps in Week 8 and carried the ball 14 times for 67 yards. He’s coming so cheap on FanDuel Jonathan Taylor is now $6800 on FanDuel
Opponent CHI
Proj Points FD - 22.61 DK - 27.44
With running backs looking a bit cheaper this week, we might be able to load up at wide receiver and Hill has become one of the toughest fades in the game. He leads the league in targets with 92 though he’s played one more game than Cooper Kupp which helps. Hill has done an every-other-week kind of thing this season, but there’s nothing much to read into there. The usage has been consistent every time out. The Bears have the 26th-ranked defense on the season and will have trouble containing Hill in the open field. He’s a great DraftKings play.
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 21.78 DK - 26.49
Hopkins has come back from the suspension and hasn’t missed a beat, totaling 27 targets through his first two games and turning them into 262 yards and a touchdown. That should look to continue in what could be a high-scoring affair with the Seahawks. His DraftKings price really hasn’t caught up with the opportunity and he’s clearly one of the elite WRs still in the game. If anything taking the first third of the year off may have only served to keep him fresher than everyone else out there. He’s a high-floor play on this slate.
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 10.13 DK - 11.92
One of the winners in the NFL’s trade season was Marshall who took over for Robbie Anderson in the Panthers’ receiving corps. Seeing as how this team has traded Anderson and, more importantly, Christian McCaffrey, there are a decent number of targets to go around. He and DJ Moore combined for 56% of the team’s target share in Week 8 and Marshall was productive with four catches and 87 yards playing 93$ of the snaps. The DraftKings price is particularly attractive considering how much he’s going to be on the field in a game they will likely be playing catch-up in.
Opponent LAC
Proj Points FD - 10.91 DK - 13.41
It finally happened! Kyle Pitts did something! After averaging just five targets a game through his first six, Pitts saw nine targets in Week 8 and turned them into five catches for 80 yards and a touchdown. It was, by far his best game because he actually combined the yards with the score and it could bode good things to come. The price is still too low on DraftKings and it’s going to pay to shoot the upside here even if the Falcons mostly hate throwing the ball.
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 10.16 DK - 12.56
Though the Chargers are going to be without Mike Williams, they are getting Keenan Allen back into the mix and he’s likely to be healthy following the bye week. Plus they have Ekeler who is basically a wide receiver. But Gerald Everett should still see solid-to-elite TE targets in this game because the offense is so pass-happy. He’s cheaper than Pitts on FanDuel which helps and should have some ownership at the position.
Consider Tyler Higbee though the Rams are starting to spread the ball around a bit more now.
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 8.43 DK - 8.43
Opponent CHI
Proj Points FD - 7.02 DK - 7.02
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