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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Sunday, 10/23/22
This opening week of the NBA season has been magical. I'm one of the few people who prefer to watch the NBA over the NFL, and it has me pegged as your Sunday writer for the rest of the season. The prize pools always tend to be smaller, but it's an excellent time to capitalize on some of the amateur players. We also tend to have smaller slates, and that's certainly the case with this seven-game card. With that in mind, let's get started with one of the best guards in the NBA!
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Point Guard
Trae Young FD - $8700 DK - $9700
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 48.98 DK - 52.7
We weren't so sure what to expect from this Young-Murray backcourt, but it looks like these are the exact same All-Star players. The reason we love them for DFS is that these sites clearly overreacted to that move, making these guys about $1,000 cheaper than last year. That makes no sense, with Young scoring at least 50 DraftKings points in both games this season. The assists are what had DFS managers concerned, but he's handed out 13 a night with Dejounte. Getting to face Charlotte is sensational, too, with the Hornets ranked fifth in pace and 22nd in defensive efficiency last year. In their final three matchups last season, Trae averaged 46 fantasy points per game!
Dennis Smith Jr. FD - $5200 DK - $5400
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 31.16 DK - 29.93
How crazy is it that we have DSJ in here in the opening week of the season? Many people weren't even sure Smith would play in the NBA this season, but he's been one of their best guards through the opening week. The former Top-10 pick has 25 and 29 DK points in the first two games of the year, playing 22 minutes a night. He's done that damage off the bench, but we anticipate him playing 35 minutes as the starting point guard here. We say that because LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Miles Bridges are all out of the lineup. Those were the three best players last year, and we have to assume DSJ will swallow as much of that empty usage as possible. In four starts last year, Smith had at least 32 DK points in all of them en route to a 36-point average.
CJ McCollum (FD $7600 DK $7000) has been playing point guard for this dangerous Pels offense and should flirt with 40 fantasy points every night.
Shooting Guard
Dejounte Murray FD - $9500 DK - $9600
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 46.13 DK - 45.49
The fact that we have both of these guys in here shows how successful they have been. Dejounte has been the same stud we saw with the Spurs, averaging 20 points, 7.0 rebounds, 10 assists, and 4.5 steals through the first two games. That equates to a 53-point average, with Murray scoring at least 50 fantasy points in both outings. That stat-stuffing ability would work with anyone, and it's clear he can produce whether he's the primary point guard or not. He should slice right through this Charlotte defense, with the Hornets surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing guards last season.
Donovan Mitchell FD - $8500 DK - $8600
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 47.16 DK - 48.77
I wasn't so sure how the Mitchell experiment would work in Cleveland, but I was wrong for being skeptical. The former Utah All-Star has at least 50 DraftKings points in his first two games with the Cavs, collecting 32 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists on Saturday. That absurd stat line is no surprise since Cleveland is playing without Darius Garland, leaving Mitchell with all the usage he can handle. We know Mitchell can be a five-figure player in this sort of role, and he should keep rolling against Washington. The Wizards ranked 25th in defensive efficiency last season, with DM dropping 45 fantasy points in their most recent matchup.
Kelly Oubre Jr. (FD $5700 DK $5700) should see an expanded role with Ball, Tery Rozier, and Bridges all out of the picture in Charlotte.
Small Forward
Caris LeVert FD - $5600 DK - $5800
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 32.71 DK - 33.33
We just mentioned how Cleveland is playing without Garland, and that's about 35 percent of the team's usage out of the lineup. That means there are plenty of opportunities to go around, and LeVert will play second-fiddle to Mitchell. That was the case on Saturday, with Caris collecting 14 points, four rebounds, and eight assists in a blowout win over Chicago. He's likely looking at even more minutes in what's expected to be a competitive game, and we've seen LeVert be an $8K player in this sort of role in the past. If you look at the 25 games LeVert played at least 32 minutes last year, he averaged 39 fantasy points per game. That's ridiculous from a sub-$6K player and it's not like he'll struggle against the Wizards.
Gordon Hayward FD - $6100 DK - $6300
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 31.73 DK - 32.3
With Ball, Bridges, and Rozier all out for the Hornets, somebody needs to run this offense. While we expect DSJ to start at point guard, we expect Hayward to take on most of the ball-handling duties. That's who this guy was in his Utah days, averaging nearly 35 DK points per game in a role as their primary playmaker. He's shown glimpses of that All-Star this season, averaging 36 fantasy points per game. He also had 26 points and seven assists on Friday in this expanded role, and it's a glimpse of the type of player we expect to see here. Facing Atlanta is awesome, too, with the Hawks ranked 26th in defensive efficiency ratings last year.
Josh Hart (FD $5900 DK $5600) is a stat-stuffing machine for Portland and should never be below $6K with his double-double upside.
Power Forward
Lauri Markkanen FD - $7300 DK - $6300
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 29.18 DK - 29.92
This sounds crazy to say, but Markkanen is running the show in Utah. He was one of the significant pieces of the Donovan Mitchell trade, and it looks like Utah wants him to be the focal point of their offense. In his first two games with the Jazz, Markkanen has a 42-point average. He's dropped 33 and 52 DraftKings points in the first two games and looks like the new man. There's not much on this roster that will take away from Markkanen, and we shouldn't be surprised that he took 23 shots while playing 39 minutes on Friday. No one in this price range plays 40 minutes and takes 20-plus shots, making Markkanen one of the best values on the board. He'll pummel the Pelicans, with New Orleans ranked 20th in total defense last year.
Aleksej Pokuševski FD - $4900 DK - $5300
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 23.99 DK - 24.4
This is a bit of a swing, but we really like Poku in this spot. This youngster had a dud in his most recent outing on Saturday, but he's still way too cheap. We're talking about a 20-year-old first-round pick who OKC wants to develop as a primary playmaker. That's just what he did over the final month of last season, averaging 31 DK points per game across his final 17 games. That's all you can hope for from a $5K player, and we love that he has at least 26 DK points in 10 of his last 11 games dating back to last year. This is also the second half of a back-to-back set for OKC, and Poku could be looking at even more usage if any of these guys are rested. Minnesota is far from a menacing matchup, ranked 24th in points allowed last year.
Jarred Vanderbilt (FD $5800 DK $4800) hasn't scored much, but he's still averaging 29 DK points per game. Good luck finding that from another player below $5K.
Center
Deandre Ayton FD - $7000 DK - $6500
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 38.61 DK - 39.8
Ayton has become an underrated player in the NBA, and it looks like these DFS sites are drinking the Kool-Aid. The 24-year-old has been blossoming every year, averaging a career-best 35 DK points per game in 2021. That's what you expect to see from a top pick in the draft, especially since he has at least 37 fantasy points in the first two games of this year. It's clear the big man is motivated after all the off-season drama, and we're ecstatic that Phoenix allowed Ayton to take 22 shots and play 38 minutes in their most recent outing. If this talented youngster gets a role like that, he should be a $9K player. The Clippers have one of the best defenses in the NBA, but the center spot is one position they can be exploited. That's on full display when you see that Deandre has at least 33 DK points in seven of his last eight meetings with the Clips.
Jusuf Nurkic FD - $6200 DK - $6400
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 35.54 DK - 37.02
It's hard to understand why Nurkic remains so affordable. This dude was a monster when he was healthy last season, averaging over 35 DraftKings points per game. That's impressive in a 56-game sample size, and it's clear he's becoming a bigger part of the offense since the C.J. McCollum trade. He showed that same form in his most recent outing, totaling 20 points and 17 rebounds on Friday. A gem like that is difficult to find from a $6K player, and we expect him those 35 DK points to be his floor in this matchup. Nurk had a double-double in all three meetings with the Lakers last season, averaging over 41 fantasy points per game. That's no surprise since they finished sixth in pace and 21st in defensive efficiency.
Kelly Olynyk (FD $4600 DK $5200) is the starting center in Utah, and we truly believe he'll be $1,000 more in a month. He needs to do a ton for this weak offense, and he's capable of being one of the primary playmakers out of the post.
