(AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)
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Opponent PIT
Proj Points FD - 28.29 DK - 28.29
In terms of per-game fantasy scoring, there is a class of quarterbacks at the top of the list and then there is everyone else. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson lead that class this season with Jalen Hurts, who we’ll get to in a second, right behind. Allen has 10 passing touchdowns on the season and has added two rushing touchdowns. He is fourth in quarterback rushing yards and third in passing attempts. He just has such a high floor each and every week because he literally does everything. And in Week 5, the Bills have the highest implied total at 30.5 as -14 home favorites against the Steelers. This is a tough spot to fade Allen in cash games.
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 26.78 DK - 26.78
Hurts is third in fantasy scoring this season behind Jackson and Allen and like those two offers a high floor in every game because of how much he will take off and run. The Eagles dealt with bad conditions in Week 4 but things are lining up well this time around even going on the road. They are 5.5 favorites against the Cardinals who rank 29th in DVOA on defense and 28th against the pass. And with only four passing touchdowns on the season in 123 passing attempts, one could make the case that Hurts is running bad in that category. There could be even more room for upside if this game turns into a shootout.
Opponent CHI
Proj Points FD - 18.11 DK - 19.77
There was some concern about Cook’s shoulder going into the Week 4 game in London for the Vikings. But he ended up playing and carried the ball 20 times on 63% of the Minnesota offensive snaps. Now, he comes into Week 5 in the running back sweet spot as a -7 home favorite against the Bears who rank 24th in the league against the rush this season. Cook has seen a price dip on both sites and is especially a good deal on FanDuel. He hasn’t been a total workhorse back this season, but this could be a smash spot when we are buying at a discount.
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 16.73 DK - 18.83
It’s become clear that playing against the Lions is where fantasy dreams are made and that could be the case going forward for the rest of the season. They allow the 4th-most opponent plays per game and ranks dead last in DVOA defense. Stevenson is out snapping Damien Harris in the offense right now and is seeing more looks in the passing game as well. There is still something of a timeshare here which makes this play a bit risky, but the volume for both has been there over the last few weeks. I think we can run him pretty confidently in cash games because the opponent offers such a great opportunity.
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 17.79 DK - 19.74
It’s been a rough go of it over the last three weeks, and really the season for Fournette with the Bucs finding themselves on the short end of the game script stick over the last couple of weeks especially. That should be set to change here against the Falcons with Tampa -8.5 favorites at home. While Rachaad White cut into the usage last week, that shouldn’t be a dominant trend and Fournette has been seeing massive snap count share through the beginning part of the season. The reduction in output has also led to a price decrease and now he faces the 26th-ranked rush defense in Atlanta.
Strongly consider Raheem Mostert against the Jets.
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 23.54 DK - 28.65
He’s once again on an historic pace this season and the numbers are just ridiculous. Through the first four weeks, Kupp has 54 targets, seven more than the next-closest guy (Adams - 47) and is on pace for 216 through 16 games, easily a record if he keeps it up. There’s really no safer fantasy producer at this point on a week-to-week basis than Kupp with a floor that just can’t really be rivaled. Fading him at sub-$10K anywhere should be done at your own peril. With some ways to save a bit at running back, I think this becomes a pretty easy call all things considered.
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 20.4 DK - 24.7
Tua Tagovailoa is out this week though I don’t think it will change the Dolphins’ overall approach all that much. This is still a team that’s going to want to pass early and often and Teddy Bridgewater is a competent backup in this case. Even with Tua going down early in last week’s game against the Bengals, Hill still saw 14 targets, converting them into 10 catches and 160 yards. The price is on the higher side, but again I don’t think we are going to be paying all the way up for running back. Fitting Kupp and Hill into lineups is definitely possible.
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 15.51 DK - 18.98
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 10.91 DK - 13.34
If Zay Jones were to sit again, these two would look like values at their current price points. The Jags are coming off a week that saw terrible weather conditions in Philly and only managed to throw the ball 23 times. Even with that, these two took on 65% of the target share. Now they’ll face a Houston team ranked 27th on defense for the season. The Texans are a bit better against the pass, but still well below average overall. It could be a game script type game with the Jags favored at home, but not having to break the bank for the WRs in this one helps to mitigate some of the risk.
If Amon-Ra St. Brown is out again, then Josh Reynolds is once again an excellent cash game target.
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 12.72 DK - 16.02
While much is rightfully made of Cooper Kupp’s output for this season, Higbee has been turning it on in his own right. He leads all tight ends in receiving targets (39) and is fourth in yards at the position. On DraftKings, he’s simply mispriced as TE6 on the main slate. While the touchdowns haven’t been there, in full PPR formats he’s a total bargain for how much Stafford is looking his way in the offense. I suspect he’s the chalkiest play there on the slate.
Opponent NE
Proj Points FD - 11.12 DK - 13.79
Hockenson’s ownership could eclipse Higbee’s here but it would only be if Amon-Ra St. Brown were out again. Last week, with Detroit’s WR1 out of the mix, Hockenson was the overwhelming chalk option and was also a slate breaker, seeing 12 targets and converting them into 8 catches, 179 yards and two touchdowns. If ARSB is out again, then we can go back to Hockenson though it’s worth noting that his matchup this week is considerably worse.
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 9.8 DK - 9.8
While the Rams aren’t typically an offense we’d want to target plays against, this season has been a bit of a slog for them at times. They’ve allowed the second-most sacks in the league so far and the Cowboys ranks fifth in getting to the quarterback. I like the price on DraftKings, especially in what could be more of a grind-it-out game.
Opponent CHI
Proj Points FD - 7.33 DK - 7.33
The Vikings’ defense isn’t as good as the Cowboys, but they are playing the Bears who are pretty darn bad. Chicago is tied with LA for the most sacks allowed this season. There are other defenses like the 49ers and Bills who are also in great spots, but you are paying an arm and a leg for them at this point.
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