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Corbnin Burnes and the Blue Jays the DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 9/30/22
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Pitchers
Corbin Burnes FD 10300 DK 10500
Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - MIA
FD - 46.55 DK - 26.63
The Brewers are still in the Wild Card fight here and this time of year, that’s about all you can ask for when it comes to starting pitching. There are a lot of ways to pay up today and there are too many big arms to avoid playing all of them. So we’ll take Burnes here. He’s struggled at times in the second half of the season, but this is still a guy with a strikeout rate close to 11 per nine and he’s facing off against the 27th-ranked offense in the league. He’s not a huge favorite because he’s going against Alcantara, but the run line in this game is so, so low.
Jack Flaherty FD 7900 DK 7400
Opponent - PIT (Johan Oviedo) Park - PIT
FD - 36.64 DK - 19.62
This is a somewhat tricky spot because the Cardinals aren’t playing for a ton here so Flaherty could really be managed. But he’s coming real cheap on DraftKings on a day where that matters and he’s a -204 home favorite against the Pirates. Pittsburgh ranks third-to-last in team offense this season and they strike out close to 26% of the time. Flaherty has been a mixed bag this season, but he’s coming off a nine-strikeout performance against the Padres last time out. In the effort to get some bats in, I think he is okay in cash.
Very strongly consider Logan Gilbert who is a -224 favorite at home against the lowly Oakland A’s.
Catcher/First Base
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD 3800 DK 5500
Opponent - BOS (Nick Pivetta) Park - BOS
FD - 12.78 DK - 9.62
Alejandro Kirk FD 2300 DK 4800
Opponent - BOS (Nick Pivetta) Park - BOS
FD - 11.43 DK - 8.67
We aren’t going to be able to play all of the big bats on this slate, but we can start things off with the Blue Jays. They are facing off against Nick Pivetta who brings in a 4.48 ERA and does allow the long ball. Guerrero isn’t having the same kind of season he had last time out with the OPS *only* sitting at .813. But this is a guy who does have 30 home runs and is tough to put down on strikes at just 16%. I like the FanDuel price and really can see playing him on both sites if you can fit the salary.
Meanwhile, Kirk is just mispriced on FanDuel plain and simple. He should be hitting cleanup for the Blue Jays here on Friday and brings in an .801 OPS with 14 home runs. The real plus for Kirk is that he walks (11%) more than he strikes out (10%), putting the ball in play around 80% and giving him a high floor in cash. That’s a great profile against an arm like Pivetta.
Second Base
Luis Rengifo FD 2500 DK 4500
Opponent - TEX (Glenn Otto) Park - TEX
FD - 9.98 DK - 7.69
Like Kirk, Rengifo is just coming too cheap on FanDuel at $2500 and though he isn’t an overwhelming fantasy talent, that price is too low for a guy hitting leadoff in the Angels’ lineup. He gets the ball in play 82% of the time and does have an OPS well over .700 thanks to the contact rate and enough power seeing as how he has 16 home runs on the season. Hitting in front of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani gets the job done as well.
Brendan Donovan FD 2900 DK 3600
Opponent - PIT (Johan Oviedo) Park - PIT
FD - 9.08 DK - 7.02
Donovan is in the leadoff slot for the Cardinals and coming under $4K on DraftKings does help alleviate some salary concerns on that site. He has a good plate profile for cash games seeing as how he strikes out only 15% of the time and walks at a 13% clip. The .393 OBP is elite and makes up for the fact that he doesn’t have much in the way of power or speed.
Shortstop
Carlos Correa FD 2900 DK 4800
Opponent - DET (Tyler Alexander) Park - DET
FD - 8.71 DK - 6.6
Correa has had a quiet, but pretty effective season with 21 home runs and an .824 OPS. The power numbers are right in line with where he’s been for his career and all-in-all this was a good signing for the Twins. He’ll face Tyler Alexander on Friday and should be hitting second in the lineup against the lefty. For his career, he’s been much better in this split with an .869 OPS and .373 wOBA against lefties. Considering he’s coming sub-$3K on FanDuel, we can put him in lineups for sure.
On DraftKings, you might be looking at going very cheap at the position seeing as how the top options are all priced in the higher tier and are tough to fit in here. Lower level, but cheap, plays include Bryson Stott (FD $2100 DK $2800) or J.P. Crawford (FD $2300 DK $2800) who are each under $3K though hitting near the bottom of their respective lineups.
Third Base
Eugenio Suárez FD 3500 DK 4300
Opponent - OAK (Ken Waldichuk) Park - OAK
FD - 10.84 DK - 8.06
After a slow start, Suarez has turned his season around and currently has an .810 OPS with 31 home runs. That’s not really reflected in his price on either site and he’s in a great spot against the lefty Waldichuk. For his career, Suarez is about 80 OPS higher against lefties, walking at a 13% rate with a .236 ISO. We will take that kind of platoon split here at these salaries and he makes a strong play on DraftKings especially.
Alec Bohm FD 2700 DK 3900
Opponent - WSH (Anibal Sanchez) Park - WSH
FD - 8.28 DK - 6.36
Bohm is coming on the cheaper side on both sites and should be hitting fifth in the Phillies’ lineup when they face Anibal Sanchez in the second game of the doubleheader. The Phillies have one of the higher run lines on the day at 5.2 and Sanchez shouldn’t offer up much in the way of resistance. You’d like to see a little more power from Bohm, but you also aren’t paying through the nose for a guy hitting in a solid lineup spot on a good team.
Outfield
Kyle Schwarber FD 4000 DK 4900
Opponent - WSH (Anibal Sanchez) Park - WSH
FD - 12.3 DK - 9.11
Like we said with Bohm, the Phillies are in a great spot in the second half of this doubleheader and Schwarber makes a solid play on both sites. He has a career-high 42 home runs on the season with a .798 OPS and .343 wOBA. Strikeouts are always the concern with this guy seeing as how he goes down swinging about 30% of the time this season. But that’s much less of a problem against Sanchez who strikes out fewer than six batters per nine on the season.
George Springer FD 3600 DK 5000
Opponent - BOS (Nick Pivetta) Park - BOS
FD - 12 DK - 9.01
Teoscar Hernández FD 3000 DK 4200
Opponent - BOS (Nick Pivetta) Park - BOS
FD - 10.89 DK - 8.25
Like some of his Blue Jays teammates, Hernandez isn’t having the same kind of fantasy season this time out with just 22 home runs and six stolen bases. But he’s also not being priced at an elite level either and that has him in play here. Toronto against Pivetta is just in a good spot and the latter doesn’t put away enough batters to really give any issues. Plus he gives up walks at a worse-than-average rate as well.
Springer meanwhile will be hitting leadoff and his 24 home runs are the most he’s had since 2019. The OPS has finally crept up and over .800 and he’s added 13 stolen bases which are his highest number since the 16 he had all the way back in 2015. He is coming at a good price on FanDuel especially.
