DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 9/26/22

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Pitchers

Bryce Elder FD - P 8900 DK - SP 8400
Opponent - WSH (Cory Abbott) Park - WSH
FD - 21.96 DK - 10.9

I am not thrilled about targeting value pitching in both slots today but considering we have a four-game slate with the top pitchers facing each other's top offenses, it feels like the optimal way to build lineups. Let's start with the Braves' Bryce Elder who has been up and down from the minors all season but has been huge down the stretch allowing just nine hits and two earned runs over his last three starts while racking up 22 strikeouts(30% K rate). He will look to continue that success in a plus matchup against the Nationals who have dropped 10 of their last 14 games while scoring just 2.8 runs per game(.280 wOBA/77 wRC+) and striking out 23.6% of the time. Fire up Elder in all formats.

Roansy Contreras FD - P 8200 DK - SP 7500
Opponent - CIN (Chase Anderson) Park - PIT
FD - 31.31 DK - 16.25

Going down a bit further we have another rookie in Roansy Contreras who despite a couple of blowups, has been impressive in 2022. He has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 13 of his 16 starts and one or fewer in four of his last five and despite giving up six earned runs in his previous start, struck out a career-high 10 batters. What really stands out on Monday is the matchup against the Reds who have tallied a league-low .255 wOBA and 55 wRC+ over the past two weeks. I will have exposure in all formats.

Catcher/First Base

Adley Rutschman FD - C 3100 DK - C 4700
Opponent - BOS (Connor Seabold) Park - BOS
FD - 11 DK - 8.37
Ryan Mountcastle FD - 1B 2700 DK - 1B 4000
Opponent - BOS (Connor Seabold) Park - BOS
FD - 10.9 DK - 8.33

With just four games on Monday, our options are pretty limited but this is a game I will be stacking heavily on both sides. Let's start with the Orioles and Adley Rutschman who came into the season as a top prospect and is now the center of a rebuilding team that is also pushing towards the playoffs. He is coming off an 0 for 5 on Sunday but went into that game hitting .320 with a .416 wOBA/176 wRC+ over his previous 20 games. Almost equally as good lately has been Ryan Mountcastle who has hits in four straight and six of his last seven and has tallied a .357 wOBA/135 wRC+ over his last 20 games. With value pitching tonight it won't be hard to roster an expensive catcher and these two will be part of my core in all formats.

Also Consider: Matt Olson(ATL) as a GPP pivot in a plus matchup against Cory Abbott who has struggled against lefties with a 6.29 xFIP and is giving up a .384 wOBA in the split

Second Base

Kevin Newman FD - 2B 2100 DK - 2B/SS 3500
Opponent - CIN (Chase Anderson) Park - PIT
FD - 6.85 DK - 5.41

This isn't a matchup I would normally be targeting on a normal slate but this is anything but on Monday. The good news here is that Newman has been just as good as the pitcher he faces as he comes into Monday with hits in eight straight games, doubles in back-to-back games, and extra-base hits in three straight. Given the position is an absolute wasteland with injuries and tough matchups, Newman is easily my top play here in all formats.

*Update - If Ji Hwan Bae starts again at second and leads off for the Pirates, he would be in play at near min price and has hits in two of his first three major league games*

Gleyber Torres FD - 2B 3400 DK - 2B 4200
Opponent - TOR (Kevin Gausman) Park - TOR
FD - 9.41 DK - 7.2

One of those tough matchups comes in the game of the night as the Yankees take on the Blue Jays and Kevin Gausman. While the matchup looks tough at first glance, there is a lot to like starting with Torres who comes in red-hot with hits in 12 of his last 14 games while hitting .368 in that time with a whopping .478 wOBA/221 wRC+. On the other side, Gausman has been good at times but also had his struggles giving up four or more earned runs in four of his last eight starts. The price is right to get some exposure to Torres in all formats.

Shortstop

Dansby Swanson FD 3600 DK 5500
Opponent - WSH (Cory Abbott) Park - WSH
FD - 13.75 DK - 10.5

The Braves lead the slate in implied runs and while they are expensive, it won't be hard to stack them up with the value at pitching. Dansby Swanson stands out at shortstop as he comes into the week red-hot with five hits in his last two games and has set new career-highs in runs(94), RBI(92), and stolen bases(18) in 2022. It helps when you get elite opportunities hitting behind Ronald Acuna and in front of Austin Riley. Fire up Swanson in all formats.

Xander Bogaerts FD 3500 DK 5400
Opponent - BAL (Jordan Lyles) Park - BAL
FD - 11.89 DK - 9.03

I opened the hitting portion of the article talking about game-stacking this matchup between the Orioles and Red Sox so let's discuss the latter. The Red Sox have had their way with Jordan Lyles in the second half scoring 12 earned runs against him in their last two meetings. For Bogaerts, has been a multi-hit machine in the second half with 15 of them in his last 25 games dating back to August 25 which has resulted in a terrific .385 average with .440 wOBA and 188 wRC+. If choosing just one shortstop(DraftKings), Bogaerts is that play for me tonight and there is a strong argument for both Xander and Swanson on FanDuel tonight.

Third Base

Rafael Devers FD 3800 DK 5800
Opponent - BAL (Jordan Lyles) Park - BAL
FD - 12.7 DK - 9.6
Austin Riley FD 3700 DK 5700
Opponent - WSH (Cory Abbott) Park - WSH
FD - 14.36 DK - 10.87

With not a lot going on in terms of value at third base let's pay right up with some of the savings we got at other positions. The tough decision here is deciding which one to roster and with these two in the exact same price range on both sites, I list them together. Let's start with Devers whose production numbers are down a tick from last year but he has played fewer games due to injury and has seen his average go up around 10 ticks going into Monday's game. I do lean him over Riley slightly tonight due to splits in the matchup as Jordan Lyles has struggled a bit more against lefties with 14 of his 24 home runs coming in the split.

For Riley, it is been a bit opposite Devers in that the average is down in 2022 but the production numbers are up. He has already cleared his 2021 home run total by four(37 currently) and is on the cusp of setting career highs in RBI and runs scored. The only real difference form last season is that the BABIP is down about 40 points and that feels like an outlier when looking at the advanced stats as his xwOBA sits at .381 which is around 20 points higher than his 2021 total(.361).

Both these players are elite pay-ups for me tonight and on DraftKings it really comes down to which team you are stacking more.

Outfield

Aaron Judge FD 5100 DK 6400
Opponent - TOR (Kevin Gausman) Park - TOR
FD - 10.14 DK - 7.59

If we aren't rostering Aaron Judge at this point, what are we even doing? I mean, who doesn't want to tell their grandkids one day that when Aaron Judge hit his 61st and 62nd home runs in 2022 you had them in your fantasy lineup? In all seriousness, however, Judge is worth every penny as he not only leads the AL Triple Crown categories but around seven other offensive categories as well. And for all you BvPers out there, tonight could be the night as he has crushed Gausman in the past with three home runs in 22 AB with a .555 wOBA. Just saying and also don't tell Doug I mentioned this!

Michael Harris II FD 4100 DK 4700
Opponent - WSH (Cory Abbott) Park - WSH
FD - 12.97 DK - 9.91

If it's more of a balanced route you are chasing with bats there are a lot of options and leading the way is the Braves' outstanding rookie, Michael Harris. He continues to perform and shake off any idea of hitting a rookie wall as he is still hitting over .300 in September and is providing elite fantasy value with an elite .411 wOBA/166 wRC+. He does move around the Braves lineup and would get a huge upgrade in value if he was to move back up near the top but either way, I want exposure in all formats against the Nats.

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