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Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 3
Welcome back football fans. Week 3 is here and we gave you our top cash game plays earlier in the week. Now it's time to look at some high upside stacks for GPP formats. Let's get started.
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Chalk Stack of the Week - Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen FD 9000 DK 8200
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 23.05 DK - 23.85
Stefon Diggs FD 8300 DK 7700
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 16.84 DK - 20.71
This stack checks all the boxes starting with a game that has the highest total(53.5) and fairly close spread(BUF -5.5). While the Bills are currently passing the ball under 60% of the time, that has been the direct result of two blowouts to start the year. Despite that fairly low pass %, Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs have been crushing with Allen throwing for an average of 307 yards through two games with seven passing touchdowns while adding 66 yards on the ground and a rushing touchdown. For Diggs, he has looked uncoverable catching 20 of his 24 targets for 270 yards and four touchdowns. With that dominance, it is also a bit surprising to see his price barely jump up where he is the 5th and 6th most expensive wideout on DraftKings and FanDeul this week.
The matchup is another good one for the Bills as they face the Dolphins who rank 31st in DVOA pass defense and rank 29th and 22nd in fantasy points against quarterbacks and wide receivers. With this being a projected close game, I also love running this stack back with a Dolphins wideout and the good news is that they have two elite playmakers in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. I will have a mix of both of them in my lineups but lean towards Waddle who is the cheapest.
Leverage off the Chalk - Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes FD 8700 DK 7900
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 23.34 DK - 24.13
Travis Kelce FD 7800 DK 7900
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 16.02 DK - 19.54
There is going to be heavy ownership on Josh Allen and the Bills stack and looking specifically at the quarterback position, Jalen Hurts is also going to be very highly owned. This creates an excellent leverage spot to use Patrick Mahomes who may not be as mobile and have the same floor but definitely has the same kind of ceiling. It starts with accuracy as he is completing 73% of his passes through two weeks and while he sits 6th in passing yards(595), he is tied for the lead with seven passing touchdowns. He also gets a terrific matchup against a Colts defense that ranks 29th in DVOA against the pass.
For Kelce, he is the most expensive tight end on the slate and with the ownership projected for the top wide receivers, is also likely to be lower owned this week. I believe this is an even bigger leverage spot as he is the most expensive for a reason as he is the fantasy points leader at his position and 11th overall in receiving yards which includes the wideouts. He also gets a matchup against a Colts defense that is 29th in DVOA against the pass and 28th in fantasy points per game allowed to the tight end position.
This is a smash spot for the Chiefs who never really take their foot off the gas even in blowouts and the fact we could get them both at sub-10 % ownership is criminal. Lock and load!
Low Owned Value Stack - Atlanta Falcons
Marcus Mariota FD 7300 DK 5500
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 16.82 DK - 17.53
Drake London FD 6000 DK 5800
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 8.76 DK - 10.78
With an abundance of high-priced quarterbacks in smash spots on the main slate this week I feel there is an opportunity to be a bit different in GPP's and take the value route. There are a few I am considering but at the top of that list is Marcus Mariota, at least on DraftKings, where he comes in the mid $5K range. While the ceiling game hasn't been there yet, the floor has been high in large part to his rushing as he sits third in both rushing attempts(18) and rushing yards(88) at the quarterback position. He now faces a Seahawks defense that has been much better against the run(9th) than against the pass(30th) and it comes down to their pass rush which ranks 29th after two weeks. I don't think we are going to see a 30-point performance, by any means, but at his current price tag 20+ DK points is getting you a 4x+ return and allows you to load up at RB, WR, and TE.
As for who to pair him with this week, it comes down to two factors for me. First of all, volume is king and rookie Drake London has out-targeted Kyle Pitts 19-10. Then we look at projected ownership and while I originally thought Pitts would be low-owned, he is currently the second most tagged at his position and 11th overall at all positions when looking at FanShare Sports. Put it all together and you get a projected high floor/high PTS/$ upside stack that can allow you to load up at RB and WR this week. Let's get it!
