Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday, 9/15/22
This baseball season feels like it's been going on for a decade, but the end is coming out of nowhere. We only have a few weeks remaining in the regular season, and it'll be fun to watch these clubs battle for postseason positioning. Unfortunately, we have a small card for this Thursday slate, with only eight games spread throughout the day. That means we have a small player pool to pick from, but there are still plenty of great options on the board. With that in mind, let's kick things off with some arms!
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Pitchers
Lance McCullers Jr. FD - P 9900 DK - SP 9700
Opponent - OAK (James Kaprielian) Park - HOU
FD - 43.91 DK - 23.89
It was a bit of a slow start for McCullers after his recovery from injury, but he's starting to hit his stride. The young right-hander has his ERA down to 2.20, allowing three runs or fewer in all five of his starts. The K rate has been slow to come around, but he has 13 Ks across 12.2 innings in his last two starts. That's the stud we've become accustomed to, with McCullers striking out 750 batters across 671 innings coming into the year. The strikeouts should be on the rise against an offense like this. Oakland ranks 29th or 30th in runs scored, OBP, OPS, and xwOBA. Not to mention, McCullers enters this matchup as a -300 favorite.
Lance Lynn FD - P 10100 DK - SP 7500
Opponent - CLE (Hunter Gaddis) Park - CLE
FD - 33.27 DK - 17.95
What is DraftKings thinking here? Lynn has returned to the ace we saw in past years, providing a 1.19 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, and 10.8 K/9 rate across his last six starts. Those are Cy Young calibre numbers, making it laughable that Lynn remains just $7,500 over on DK. In any case, we'll ride that recent form because Lynn has a 2.91 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the last two years. Facing Cleveland might sound tough on the surface, but this team owns a 29th-ranked xwOBA. They simply have nothing outside Jose Ramirez, which is evident by the fact that Lynn allowed just one run across 11.2 innings in their last two matchups while striking out 12 batters.
Carlos Carrasco (FD $9000 DK $9400) has had a bounceback season for the Mets, entering this matchup as a -250 favorite against one of the worst offenses in baseball.
Catcher/First Base
Paul Goldschmidt FD - 1B 4600 DK - 1B 6300
Opponent - CIN (Chase Anderson) Park - STL
FD - 15.02 DK - 11.39
When looking at a short slate like this, getting the studs into your build is imperative. These always tend to lower-scoring slates, making Goldy one of the safest bets on the board. The future 2022 NL MVP has a .322 AVG, .410 OBP, .602 SLG, and 1.012 OPS in what's been an unbelievable season. He's just shy of a 1.100 OPS across his last 45 games, and there are not many stretches this season where Goldy isn't producing a 1.000 OPS. The best part of this is a matchup with Chase Anderson, who's gone from team to team in the back-nine of his career. We'll have other Cards later on, so we'll dive into Anderson's numbers then!
Jose Miranda FD - 1B 3000 DK - 1B 3300
Opponent - KC (Daniel Lynch) Park - MIN
FD - 9.81 DK - 7.56
This kid is not getting the respect he deserves. Miranda has been one of the best hitters for this Twins lineup, regularly batting third or fourth. That promotion in the lineup is mainly due to his recent form, registering a .321 AVG, .446 OBP, .528 SLG, and .974 OPS across his last 15 games. That's the slugger we saw in the minors, maintaining a .396 OBP and .940 OPS at Double and Triple-A. All of that makes it hard to believe that he's hovering around $3,o0o, especially since he has a .856 OPS against lefties this year. This is one of the worst lefties in baseball as well, and we'll discuss that more in the shortstop section.
J.T. Realmuto (FD $3300 DK $10200) just homered twice on Wednesday and could keep raking against a struggling Pablo Lopez.
Second Base
Tommy Edman FD - 2B 3500 DK - SS 5400
Opponent - CIN (Chase Anderson) Park - STL
FD - 8.85 DK - 6.92
Edman is one of the league leaders in WAR, and it's hard to understand why the Cards moved this guy to the nine-hole at one point. In any case, they realized their mistake and now have him batting second in front of Goldschmidt and Arenado. That's a brilliant spot to be in, with Edman establishing a .387 AVG, .733 SLG, and 1.144 OPS across his last 20 games. What's ironic about that is that Edman has been a speed-first guy throughout his career, picking up 59 steals since the start of last year. Almost all of those have come against righties, and he should have plenty of opportunities here against a journeyman with a 9.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in his four starts this year.
Jeff McNeil FD - 2B 3100 DK - 2B 4400
Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - NYM
FD - 9.35 DK - 7.19
McNeil isn't an exciting fantasy option because of his lack of speed and power, but this is one of the best pure hitters in baseball. He's one of the league leaders with a .323 AVG, which is no surprise since he's got a .305 BA throughout his career. His eye has been even better as of late, totaling a .400 AVG and .887 OPS across his last 11 games. That has earned him a spot in the three-hole in the last five games against righties, which is no surprise since McNeil has a .329 AVG, .375 OBP, and .848 OPS against right-handers this year. We're not concerned about facing JT Brubaker, who has a disastrous 1.42 WHIP.
Shortstop
Carlos Correa FD - SS 4000 DK - SS 5000
Opponent - KC (Daniel Lynch) Park - MIN
FD - 11.6 DK - 8.79
Correa has been a regular in this section recently, and it's becoming impossible to fade him with his recent form. Over his last 18 games, Correa has compiled a .382 AVG, .437 OBP, 702 SLG, and 1.139 OPS. We've been waiting to see him return to the stud we saw in Houston, and this is hopefully a sign of things to come for the final month. The best part of this is that he gets the platoon advantage against a lefty, with Correa collecting a .387 OBP and .900 OPS against them this season. That should be easy to add to against Lynch, amassing a 5.14 ERA and 1.58 WHIP.
Oneil Cruz FD - SS 3100 DK - SS 4700
Opponent - NYM (Carlos Carrasco) Park - NYM
FD - 7.54 DK - 5.8
Cruz should be spelled with a K because this dude strikes out more than anyone in baseball. His line on Wednesday is a good indicator of where he's at right now, striking out in four of his five at-bats while homering in the other. That potential is what has fans so intrigued because Cruz is already one of the league leaders in every hard-hit metric out there. He's also got elite speed, averaging nearly 30 homers and 30 steals per 150 games played in the minors. We love that with the way Cruz is looking, generating a .283 AVG, .632 SLG, and .981 OPS across his last 19 games. Imagine how those averages could look if he weren't striking out at a 40 percent clip. Carlos Carrasco should cruise in this matchup, but his 3.80 ERA and 1.30 WHIP show that there can be some leaks in the boat.
Third Base
Nolan Arenado FD - 3B 4100 DK - 3B 5900
Opponent - CIN (Chase Anderson) Park - STL
FD - 12.59 DK - 9.54
If we're going to stack St. Louis, we have to have Arenado in the heart of our stack. Despite Goldy being the frontrunner for MVP, Nolan has been right there with him since the All-Star break. In fact, Arenado has accumulated a .311 AVG, .373 OBP, .596 SLG, and .968 OPS across his last 48 games. Nobody thought he could do that outside of Coors Field, but Arenado is proving all the doubters wrong. We don't want to fade him against a washed-up pitcher like Anderson, amassing a 7.15 ERA and 1.56 WHIP since 2020. That's three years of horrific pitching, and it has the Cards as the highest-projected lineup on this slate.
Alex Bregman FD - 3B 3700 DK - 3B 5700
Opponent - OAK (James Kaprielian) Park - HOU
FD - 13.02 DK - 9.77
Bregman and Correa have been in here almost every day, and they'll likely remain in this article until they cool off. The little third baseman has been raking for two months, generating a .338 AVG, .443 OBP, .620 SLG, and 1.063 OPS across his last 42 games. It's genuinely absurd to have a .450 OBP in a two-month span, but it's far from shocking when you examine the depth and lineup protection on this roster. We don't expect a guy like James Kaprielian to slow him down, producing a 4.79 ERA and 1.42 WHIP this year. In addition, he's coming off an injury and has allowed 13 runs in his last two starts.
Outfield
Kyle Tucker FD - OF 3700 DK - OF 5500
Opponent - OAK (James Kaprielian) Park - HOU
FD - 13.13 DK - 9.96
We just discussed how rough it's been for Kaprielian, making the Astros a fantastic stack. This Top-5 offense is always a good option, but their implied run total is the second-highest on this slate. If we're going to stack the Stros, Tucker needs to be in your build. This young outfielder has 26 homers and 22 steals this year after collecting 30 dingers and 14 steals last year. That power-speed combo is tough to find, especially since Tucker has tallied a .318 AVG, .583 SLG, and .941 OPS across his previous 36 games. Getting to face a crappy righty is the icing on the cake, with Tucker totaling a .903 OPS against them since his call-up.
Eloy Jiménez FD - OF 3500 DK - OF 4500
Opponent - CLE (Hunter Gaddis) Park - CLE
FD - 11.03 DK - 8.37
I've written up Eloy almost every day when it's my turn to write an article, and I'm satisfied with the results. The young slugger has homered in four of his last six games, providing a .369 AVG, .437 OBP, .619 SLG, and 1.067 OPS across his previous 46 games. We've been waiting for this kid to show that potential because he's flirting with a 40-homer average per 150 games played. Health will determine the future for this kid, but we truly believe he could have a Yordan Alvarez-type path if things work out. A matchup with an inexperienced Hunter Gaddis is great, too, with the rookie allowing eight runs across 3.1 innings in his one and only start.
Corey Dickerson FD - OF 2600 DK - OF 2800
Opponent - CIN (Chase Anderson) Park - STL
FD - 9.9 DK - 7.69
This might be the most egregious pricing on this slate. Dickerson has always been a beast against right-handed pitching, posting an .842 OPS against them throughout his career. He's been adding to those superb splits recently, slinging a .423 AVG, .606 SLG, and 1.036 OPS across his last 19 games. Runs like that are impossible to find from sub-$3K players, especially when they're batting in the heart of the highest-projected lineup on this slate. Paying up for Goldy and Arenado is challenging, but lineup construction is much simpler when you get a $3,000 Dickerson in there.