DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday, 9/8/22

I'm filling in for this Thursday card, which will be a small one. It's opening day of the NFL, and it's leaving us with just seven games in total and four making up the main card beginning at 645ET. We'll provide you with picks throughout both slates because there are simply not many players available. With that in mind, let's kick things off with the pitchers!

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Pitchers

Corbin Burnes FD - P 9800 DK - 9700
Opponent - SF (Jakob Junis) Park - MIL
FD - 41.6 DK - 23.67

It's bizarre to see Burnes below $10K on both sites. The 2021 NL Cy Young has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for some time now, totaling a 2.63 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 32 percent K rate since 2020. That's three years of mowing down bats, with Corbin collecting a 3.02 ERA and 1.01 WHIP this season. He's actually struggled a bit recently, but it's lowered his price enough that we can't fade this guy. We say that because San Fran sends out one of the least talented lineups in baseball, with Burnes entering this matchup as a -200 favorite, with the Giants projected for just 3.5 runs.

Kyle Gibson FD - P 9100 DK - SP 5700
Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - PHI
FD - 32.96 DK - 16.24

The price discrepancies on this guy are incredible. I can't remember seeing such a drastic price difference, but it makes Gibson one of the best options over on DraftKings. It's easy to see why they're so different, though, because Gibson has mixed gems and duds all season. He surrendered seven runs in his most recent outing but generated a 2.41 ERA and 1.10 WHIP across his previous six starts before that. The simple fact is that Gibson does well in good matchups and struggles with menacing lineups. Miami is far from a problematic matchup, with the Marlins ranked 27th in runs scored, OBP and xwOBA. That was on full display when Kyle allowed just five baserunners across six innings against them two weeks ago.

Catcher/First Base

Paul Goldschmidt FD - 1B 4300 DK - 1B 6300
Opponent - WSH (Josiah Gray) Park - STL
FD - 14.49 DK - 10.99

We only have seven games on this schedule, so we have to get the NL MVP into our build. This has been the second-best hitter in baseball this season, tallying a .329 AVG, .417 OBP, .616 SLG, and 1.033 OPS. That's scary when looking at his recent form, with Paul posting a 1.109 OPS across his last 41 games. He's doing damage in every game at this point, and he's worth it at any salary. We're not concerned about him facing a pitcher like Josiah Gray, amassing a 4.91 ERA and 1.34 WHIP while allowing the most home runs in baseball.

José Abreu FD - 1B 3300 DK - 1B 4100
Opponent - OAK (JP Sears) Park - OAK
FD - 10.08 DK - 7.63

There's a ton of mispricing on this slate, and Abreu is one of the standouts. This perennial All-Star has been unstoppable since the opening two months, producing a .326 AVG, .394 OBP, and .868 OPS over his last 113 games. That's an extensive sample size of raking, and it's pretty much the guy we've seen throughout his career. Getting to face a southpaw is sensational, too, with Abreu accumulating a .927 OPS against them since 2020. JP Sears has had an excellent season for the A's, but 4.50 xFIP indicates that he has some blowups right around the corner. Facing a righty-heavy ChiSox lineup might be the start of that negative regression.

Second Base

Jonathan India FD - 2B 3200 DK - 2B 5200
Opponent - CHC (Adrian Sampson) Park - CHC
FD - 9.81 DK - 7.41

It's been a rough season for India after taking down 2021 NL Rookie of the Year, but he's been finding it since the All-Star break. He had a 16-game hitting streak snapped earlier in the week, attaining a .296 AVG, .370 OBP, .478 SLG, and .849 OPS since July 7. That's essentially the stud we saw last season, and he should continue to do damage atop this lineup. Getting to face a pitcher like Adrian Sampson isn't too shabby either, with the Cubs righty registering a 4.83 ERA and 1.39 WHIP across 259 career innings. All of that makes Cincy one of the sneakiest stacks of the day.

Nick Madrigal FD - 2B 2400 DK - 2B 2400
Opponent - CIN (Luis Cessa) Park - CHC
FD - 9.29 DK - 7.38

Madrigal was a major bust for the White Sox, but it looks like he's found a home with the other Chicago team. The Cubs have rewarded this youngster with the leadoff spot in their lineup, collecting a .287 AVG and .361 OBP across his last 22 games. He hasn't provided much power in that span, but anyone below $2,500 on both sites who's leading off while posting a .361 OBP is hard to avoid. It's not like we anticipate Luis Cessa to slow him down, totaling a 5.18 ERA and 1.42 WHIP this year. Using a player this cheap will allow you to do whatever else you want with your lineup, and that's something we can't overlook on such a short slate.

Shortstop

Carlos Correa FD - SS 3200 DK - SS 5200
Opponent - NYY (Nestor Cortes) Park - NYY
FD - 9.89 DK - 7.49

Man, it was a challenge to pick two shortstops that I liked, but Correa looks like the best option of the bunch. The former All-Star has been mired in a slump for most of the season, but he's really starting to find it recently. In fact, Correa has a .326 AVG, .415 OBP, .587 SLG, and 1.002 OPS across his last 12 games. That's the slugging shortstop we've been waiting to see, and he should keep it going with the platoon advantage in his favor here. In 132 at-bats against lefties this year, Correa has compiled a .386 OBP and .868 OPS. Hitting in a little league park like Yankee Stadium is a bonus too.

Kyle Farmer FD - SS 3100 DK - 3B/SS 3900
Opponent - CHC (Adrian Sampson) Park - CHC
FD - 8.32 DK - 6.39

We believe the Reds are one of the best stacks out there because many of these guys remain way too cheap. Farmer is undoubtedly one of those guys, and he's an excellent addition to this stack because he typically bats third. It's rare to see a three-hole hitter this cheap, but we'll take advantage. Over his last 25 games, Farmer has a .295 AVG and .740 OPS. That's really all you can ask for from such a cheap player, especially since he faces one of the worst pitchers on this slate. Don't be afraid to stack India, Farmer, Aquino, and Fraley to save some salary!

Third Base

Nolan Arenado FD - 3B 4000 DK - 3B 6200
Opponent - WSH (Josiah Gray) Park - STL
FD - 12.15 DK - 9.2

We've got more value on this slate than ever before, which means we should be able to squeeze the safest stack into our lineups. That's the two-man stack consisting of Goldy and Arenado. Both of these guys are battling for NL MVP, with Nolan doing most of his work in the second half. Over his last 44 games, Arenado has amassed a .323 AVG, .385 OBP, .623 SLG, and 1.008 OPS. That's the All-Star we saw in Colorado, and it feels like these two are going off every single night. We already discussed how Gray had surrendered the most dingers in the sport, with the Cards projected for five runs in this spot.

Joey Wendle FD - 3B 2500 DK - 3B/SS 3700
Opponent - PHI (Kyle Gibson) Park - PHI
FD - 8.09 DK - 6.28

While we do like Gibson, we understand that he has some serious risk. Gibson rarely gets through an outing clean, and we believe Wendle could do some damage against him. This third baseman typically bats in the heart of the Marlins lineup. providing a .746 OPS against right-handers since 2020. That might not sound special, but it's a good total from a player in this price range. Getting to hit in Citizens Bank Ballpark is a nice bonus, with Miami projected for four runs in this spot. If they reach that total, Wendle should be one of the primary beneficiaries. The BvP numbers are the best part of this, with Wendle posting a .391 OBP, .739 SLG, and 1.130 OPS in 23 at-bats against Gibson.

Outfield

Aaron Judge FD - OF 5100 DK - OF 6400
Opponent - MIN (Sonny Gray) Park - NYY
FD - 12.51 DK - 9.36

We've saved a ton of salary with some of our earlier recommendations, so let's get the best hitter in baseball into our lineup. That's Aaron Judge, who's leading baseball with 110 runs, 55 homers, and 118 RBI. He's also got his OBP north of .400, and it's tough to believe that he's 19 homers above the guy in second place. He comes into this matchup rolling, too, registering a .523 OBP and 1.482 OPS across his last 15 games. Getting to face an inexperienced lefty like Sears is the icing on the cake, with Judge posting a 1.012 OPS against southpaws since 2020.

Lars Nootbaar FD - OF 2800 DK - OF 3500
Opponent - WSH (Josiah Gray) Park - STL
FD - 10.65 DK - 8.15

This has to be the most egregious pricing on this slate. It would be tough to squeeze Arenado and Goldy into your lineup, but it becomes much easier with Nootbaar. This young outfielder has been leading off for a month now, obtaining a .381 OBP, .534 SLG, and .915 OPS across his last 47 games. Almost all of that has come against right-handers, accruing a .796 OPS against them this season. That makes it hard to understand why he remains this cheap, and he'd be the critical piece to the three-man stack we just mentioned.

Eloy Jiménez FD - OF 2600 DK - OF 4200
Opponent - OAK (JP Sears) Park - OAK
FD - 10.66 DK - 8.1

It's hard to understand why these DFS sites keep Eloy in this price range. This will be a 40-homer guy in years to come, flirting with a .500 SLG and .250 ISO. He's been in and out of the lineup with differing injuries since his call-up, but he's been hot recently. Over his last 41 games, Jimenez has a .357 AVG, .431 OBP, .571 SLG, and 1.003 OPS. We've been waiting to see averages like those for years, and it should continue since he has the platoon advantage against this youngster. My favorite strategy is to ride the three-man Cards stack we just mentioned and pair it with Abreu and Jimenez from the Sox. That leaves you with plenty of salary and plenty of alternatives for the rest of your build!