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Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 1
The 2022 NFL season is back and we are ready to deliver all of our DFS content week in and week out. Doug got things started earlier in the week with his cash game picks and now it's time to look at some GPP stacks that may could be under-the-radar and help us get to the GPP pot of gold. Let's get started.
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New Orleans Saints
Jameis Winston FD 6700 DK 5300
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 17.56 DK - 18.2
Alvin Kamara FD 8500 DK 7600
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 15.96 DK - 17.6
Chris Olave FD 5000 DK 4500
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 6.76 DK - 8.14
Let's kick things off with the Saints who have one of the best matchups in week one against a Falcons defense that ranked 29th in both rushing and passing DVOA in 2021 and made minimal improvements in the offseason. While you would think with this matchup they would be higher owned I just don't think that will be the case with the lowest totals(41.5) on the slate combined with so many other great options that won't be hard to stack given the very fair week one pricing.
Let's start with Jameis Winston who is no stranger to chucking the ball downfield with 12+ yards per completion in all six seasons in which he has started at least seven games. He comes into the 2022 season with better weapons including the return of Michael Thomas(questionable for week one) and the Saints also drafted Chris Olave with the 11th pick and with Thomas and Landry expected to dominate the underneath routes, Olave should get a lot of work downfield which brings with it a ton of fantasy upside. If he comes out and shines in week one, there is a chance his price takes a huge jump into week two so this could be the time to buy low and get in before he becomes a household name.
There is a chance Michael Thomas misses week one as he is dealing with an injury and that has me wanting some exposure to Alvin Kamara. I am not normally stacking running backs with my QB/WR stacks but Kamara fits as he is one of the best pass-catching backs in the league. What I like most about Kamara in GPP as he will provide some leverage off the very chalky Jonathan Taylor and Austin Ekeler. Stay tuned for Sunday morning news as I would also consider Thomas in this stack if deemed healthy and ready for a full role in the offense.
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow FD 7700 DK 6400
Opponent PIT
Proj Points FD - 20.9 DK - 21.77
Tee Higgins FD 7000 DK 6100
Opponent PIT
Proj Points FD - 11.81 DK - 14.24
Tyler Boyd FD 5700 DK 4800
Opponent PIT
Proj Points FD - 9.04 DK - 11.13
The Bengals start the season with a divisional matchup against the Steelers and with their Top 10 passing defense from a year ago, there could be some hesitation with the passing stack for Cincy. I love targeting this unit as it is projected to be ranked a bottom five secondary in 2022 and outside of Minkah Fitzpatrick, is pretty average-at-best.
The quarterback position is one place I think we can gain the most leverage this week with Cincy as I have Joe Burrow somewhere in the 8th-10th range in terms of ownership. Helping that is the fact the Steelers held him under 200 yards in both meetings in 2021 but I am not concerned as he finished strong against some tough defenses. Burrow averaged 320 passing yards per game from Week 13 on including the Super Bowl while averaging 23.3 DK points.
You may notice that I left Ja'Marr Chase off the list and that is only because I feel he is not only the highest owned of this passing game but also should draw a ton of double coverage with help from Fitzpatrick at safety. For leverage in this stack, I like targeting Tee Higgins who is running as the #2 wideout and was phenomenal in the playoffs catching 17 of 26 passes for 299 yards and had two touchdowns in the Super Bowl against a very tough Rams defense. His price almost hit $7K on DraftKings near the end of the regular season so this also feels like a buy-low spot for him, as well. Targeting even lower ownership I like stacking Tyler Boyd in these builds who easily gets the best matchup of the three in the slot against Arthur Maulet who was one of the worst slot corners in the league in 2021.
Running Back/Defense Stack
Antonio Gibson FD 6800 DK 5800
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 10.15 DK - 10.54
WAS DEF FD 3700 DK 2500
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 7.34 DK - 7.34
It takes a lot to go right for this correlation to work out but I like it more because both individually are being overlooked in this game and overall. All the talk leading up to week one has been Travis Etienne for the Jags and I get it. He played with Trevor Lawrence in college and is a very good pass-catching back, as well. I also understand the attraction to the Jags' defense on the cheap against Carson Wentz who is a turnover machine. For me, I will defer to the Commanders(still weird to say) who face Trevor Lawrence who led the league in interceptions(17) a year ago while the Jags as a team turned the ball over the second-most(29) in the league. The defense's in this game are the exact same price so I will be loading up on the one who is half the ownership with the same upside.
As for Gibson, he gets a huge opportunity to start the season as rookie Brian Robinson will be out for a while after being shot a few weeks back. Gibson broke the 1,000 yard rushing mark in his second season in the league and now has 18 total rushing touchdowns in his short career. He also added 294 receiving yards last year with three receiving touchdowns and faces a Jags defense that ranked 21st in fantasy points per game to running backs and ranked 23rd on the offensive line in terms of run stopping(via Fantasy Outsiders).
