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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

09/07/2022
Joel Bartilotta

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday, 9/7/22

This is the last day when baseball won't have to compete with football. That's an uphill battle for MLB, but us baseball grinders will keep going at it. This is actually one of the best times to play because we finally understand where motivations lie with these teams. Many clubs are battling for playoff positions while others are playing out the final month, just waiting for their Cancun trips. We have two pitchers facing two of those teams, so let's start there!

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Pitchers

Jacob deGromJacob deGrom FD - P 12000 DK - SP 11000
Opponent - PIT (Bryse Wilson) Park - PIT
FD - 39.39 DK - 23.12

Anyone who doesn't think deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball has clearly never watched this dude pitch. The former Cy Young winner finished last year with a 1.08 ERA and 0.55 WHIP across 92 innings, backing It up this year with a 1.98 ERA and 0.55 WHIP. The K rate is equally as impressive, posting a 13.6 K/9 rate this year and a 14.3 K/9 rate last year. That's made him the most consistent player in the sport, scoring at least 30 FanDuel points in 30 of his last 31 starts over the last three years. Fading him against Pittsburgh is a bad idea, with the Pirates ranked bottom-three in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and K rate. That will likely have him entering this matchup as a -300 favorite, if not higher!

Spencer StriderSpencer Strider FD - P 10200 DK - RP 8900
Opponent - OAK (Ken Waldichuk) Park - OAK
FD - 48.39 DK - 26.99

It's wild that we have these two pitchers in such brilliant spots. Just like the Pirates, the A's rank bottom-three in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA. That would make any pitcher intriguing against this club, but Strider has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. The NL Rookie of the Year favorite has a 2.67 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 13.7 K/9 rate. That strikeout rate is the best mark among any starter in baseball, with Spencer sporting a 0.90 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, and 14.4 K/9 rate across his last three starts. The oddsmakers believe he's an outstanding play, too, making Atlanta a -280 favorite, with Oakland projected for just three runs.

Patrick Sandoval (FD $9700 DK $8600) faces the lowest-scoring team in baseball, picking up a season-high 64 FanDuel points against them two weeks ago.

Catcher/First Base

Paul GoldschmidtPaul Goldschmidt FD - 1B 4700 DK - 1B 6400
Opponent - WSH (Cory Abbott) Park - STL
FD - 14.65 DK - 11.1

Goldshmidt has been the best player in the NL this season, and he's well on his way to an NL MVP. The former Arizona bat has a .328 AVG, .416 OBP, .613 SLG, and 1.029 OPS this year. He's been even better recently, registering a 1.100 OPS across his last 39 games. The best part about this is a matchup with Cory Abbott, who is amassing a 5.08 ERA and 1.67 WHIP at Triple-A this year. He also had a 7.98 ERA and 1.60 WHIP across his last three starts before being regulated to the bullpen, and that's probably where he should stay, with the Cardinals projected for five runs in this spot.

Josh NaylorJosh Naylor FD - 1B 2700 DK - 1B 4000
Opponent - KC (Zack Greinke) Park - KC
FD - 8.49 DK - 6.51

It's weird to see Naylor in this price range. This feisty first baseman has been raking against right-handers all year, totaling a .288 AVG, .524 SLG, and .852 OPS, with the platoon advantage in his favor this season. That always earns him a cleanup spot right behind Jose Ramirez, and that's quite the treat behind one of the best hitters in baseball. He also has a double and a homer in the last two games, and he should be able to duplicate that against Zack Greinke. The Royals righty has one of the worst K rates in baseball, accruing a 4.14 ERA and 1.35 WHIP this season.

Salvador Perez (FD $3300 DK $5100) leads all catchers in homers since the start of last season and should have no issues with a gas can like Cody Morris.

Second Base

Brendan RodgersBrendan Rodgers FD - 2B 2900 DK - 2B 4700
Opponent - MIL (Eric Lauer) Park - COL
FD - 12.65 DK - 9.71

Rodgers can be tough to trust in fantasy because of his lack of speed and power, but this guy is quietly one of the best pure hitters in baseball. Since slumping through April, Rodgers has a .290 AVG and .783 OPS. That might not sound special, but his splits certainly are. Since his call-up, Brendan has a .304 AVG, .527 SLG, and .881 OPS against left-handers while posting a .378 OBP, .504 SLG, and .882 OPS at home this year. Both of those boxes are checked, and It makes it hard to understand why he remains so affordable. Eric Lauer isn't a terrible matchup either, maintaining a 4.31 ERA and 1.30 WHIP across his last 16 starts.

Max MuncyMax Muncy FD - 2B 2400 DK - 3B 5000
Opponent - SF (Alex Cobb) Park - LAD
FD - 12.39 DK - 9.16

This $2,400 price tag on FanDuel is laughable. Muncy certainly earned it with his horrific first half, but this former All-Star has been a stud since the break. Not only did he homer twice on Tuesday, but he also has a .350 OBP, .564 SLG, and .914 OPS across his last 32 games. That's big news since he has the platoon advantage against Alex Cobb, compiling a .374 OBP and .906 OPS against righties since 2018. Cobb has really struggled in his two starts against the Dodgers this season, donning a 5.24 ERA and 1.42 WHIP against them.

Shortstop

Willy AdamesWilly Adames FD - SS 3700 DK - SS 5800
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 14.96 DK - 11.33

The Brewers are the highest-projected team on this slate, projected for nearly six runs. That lofty projection is no surprise since they're hitting in Coors Field, particularly against a guy like Freeland. The Rockies lefty has a 4.75 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in a typical Freeland year. That's why we could see double-digit runs from the Brew Crew, and Adames would have to be the critical piece to that stack. He bets in the heart of this order, flirting with a .500 SLG and .250 ISO since joining this club. He also went nuts in the first game of this series, going 3-for-4 with two doubles and two RBI. Not to mention, he has the platoon advantage from the right side,

Ha-Seong KimHa-Seong Kim FD - SS 2700 DK - SS 4500
Opponent - ARI (Tommy Henry) Park - SD
FD - 11.04 DK - 8.43

Many people overlook Kim because of his lackluster career statistics, but he's always an outstanding option against left-handers. The Padre typically bat him in a top-6 spot in these circumstances, with Kim collecting a .288 AVG, .380 OBP, and .798 OPS against lefties this year. That's really all you can ask for from such a cheap player, and he'd be a great pairing with studs like Manny Machado and Juan Soto. We say that because Tommy Henry has been horrible, totaling a 4.83 ERA and 1.48 WHIP this year.

Third Base

Alex BregmanAlex Bregman FD - 3B 3500 DK - 3B 5600
Opponent - TEX (Cole Ragans) Park - HOU
FD - 13.21 DK - 9.91

Bregman has been one of the best hitters in baseball for two months now, and these DFS sites are still keeping him a bit too cheap. Over his last 35 games, Alex has accumulated a .342 AVG, .428 OBP, .642 SLG, and 1.069 OPS. That's scary for an inexperienced pitcher like Cole Ragans, collecting a 4.42 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in limited time this season. Ragans also happens to be a left-hander, making Bregman even more enticing. The former All-Star is flirting with a .400 OBP and .900 OPS in over 1,000 at-bats against left-handers. Not to mention, the Stros have one of the highest team totals on this slate.

Elehuris MonteroElehuris Montero FD - 3B 2700 DK - 1B/3B 2500
Opponent - MIL (Eric Lauer) Park - COL
FD - 11.12 DK - 8.45

The Rockies rarely make good decisions but acquiring Montero in the Nolan Arenado trade looks like a good move. They have played him every day for some reason, but they should be when examining his numbers. The young third baseman has a .275 AVG, .550 SLG, and .851 OPS across his last 23 games. He's also done exceptionally well with the platoon advantage in his favor, sporting a .500 SLG and .800 OPS against them. Rockies hitters always benefit from hitting in Coors Field as well, giving them one of the highest team totals on the slate. It's tough to find someone this hot in this price range, particularly when his team is projected for nearly six runs.

Outfield

Shohei OhtaniShohei Ohtani FD - OF 4300 DK - 1B/OF 6300
Opponent - DET (Drew Hutchison) Park - LAA
FD - 15.1 DK - 11.31

I am so amazed by Shohei Ohtani. If there weren't a silly thing called voter fatigue, this guy would be the AL MVP every single season. He's essentially a top-10 pitcher and hitter, but we'll use him at outfield today. His biggest asset here is his recent form, tallying a .414 AVG, .469 OBP, 1.000 SLG, and 1.469 OPS across his last seven games. Almost all of his damage has come against right-handers, totaling a .375 OBP and .943 OPS against them this year. This is a pitcher he can pummel, too, providing a 4.84 ERA and 1.41 WHIP throughout his career.

Ronald Acuña Jr.Ronald Acuña Jr. FD - OF 4000 DK - OF 5900
Opponent - OAK (Ken Waldichuk) Park - OAK
FD - 14.31 DK - 10.79

It's been a challenging season for Acuna returning from ACL surgery, but he's still had an excellent year. The perennial All-Star has 11 homers, and 25 steals, doing damage atop one of the best lineups in baseball. It appears that he's starting to find it a bit, generating a .294 AVG, .368 OBP, .471 SLG, and .839 OPS across his last games. His biggest asset here is facing a left-hander, generating a .412 OBP and .969 OPS against them since the start of last season. This happens to be a rookie making his debut, and it's hard to imagine that this nightmarish Oakland team called up anyone we're worried about.

Andrew McCutchenAndrew McCutchen FD - OF 2900 DK - OF 4300
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 15.7 DK - 11.76

Cutch was an MVP candidate in his days with Pittsburgh, and he appears to be recapturing some of that form this season. The former All-Star has been slaughtering southpaws throughout his career, providing a .369 OBP, .545 SLG, and .914 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor since 2020. That's a large sample size of dominance, and he should keep it going against a subpar southpaw like Kyle Freeland. The BvP numbers are the icing on the cake, with Cutch compiling a .379 OBP and 29 at-bats against Freeland. Don't forget about Hunter Renfroe, who's got dominant splits as well!

image sources

  • Jacob Degrom 653: AP Images

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