DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday, 9/4/22

Today marks the one month until the final day of the regular season! It's crazy that we're in September already, and this will be the final Sunday MLB article without football interfering. That means that the prize pools are about to plummet from here on out, but we're still going to provide quality content. It's actually a great time to play DFS because there are so many amateur football players who try their hand in MLB. Doing that at the end of the season is silly, but humans are known to be fickle creatures. With that in mind, let's kick off this Sunday card with some arms!

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Pitchers

Max Fried FD - P 10300 DK - SP 10500
Opponent - MIA (Pablo López) Park - ATL
FD - 47.16 DK - 26.05

The Braves have been one of the best teams in the NL since the opening month, and this ace is a major reason why. The left-hander has a 2.56 ERA and 1.04 WHIP this season, allowing three runs or fewer in 22 of his 25 starts. That's led to Max scoring at least 29 FanDuel points in 19 of those, one of the highest floors of any player in baseball. That 30-point floor should be easy to reach against the Marlins, with Miami ranked bottom-four in runs scored, OBP, OPS, and xwOBA. In his matchup with Miami earlier this season, Fried scored 40 FanDuel points! The oddsmakers see that happening again, with Max entering this matchup as a -280 favorite.

George Kirby FD - P 9200 DK - SP 9900
Opponent - CLE (Cal Quantrill) Park - CLE
FD - 36.18 DK - 19.43

It's strange that Kirby remains below $10,000 on both sites. This rookie has been one of the best pitchers this month, maintaining a 2.11 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 10.6 K/9 rate across his last seven starts. His elite control is what's made him so scary, picking up 107 strikeouts to just 14 walks. Cleveland can be a tough matchup at times, but this offense looks lost right now. Not only do they rank 26th in xwOBA for the season, but they also have just one run in their last four fixtures. That's a nightmarish stretch, making Kirby one of the best bets for a quality start on this slate.

Matt Manning (FD $8500 DK $7300) had a 2.37 ERA and 1.11 WHIP before a rare dud earlier in the week and should recapture that form against a 25th-ranked Royals offense.

Catcher/First Base

Trey Mancini FD - 1B 2700 DK - OF 4100
Opponent - LAA (Tucker Davidson) Park - LAA
FD - 10.67 DK - 8.15

We'll have some expensive players later on, so let's find some value at first base. This is the best position to do that because many of these power hitters bat in the heart of their respective lineups. Mancini has been doing that for the Stros, picking up six homers across his last 24 games. This is a guy who'd be on pace for 40 bombs if he hit anywhere outside of Baltimore and the move to Houston is obviously good for him on multiple fronts. The best part is the matchup with Tucker Davidson, tallying a 5.77 ERA and 1.78 WHIP this year. That has the Stros projected for more than five runs, and there'll surely be more bats coming later!

Daniel Vogelbach FD - 1B 2400 DK - 1B 4100
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - NYM
FD - 11.11 DK - 8.26

This beefy baseball player has been earning fans with his incredible physique, but this dude has been raking all season. Almost all of his damage has come against right-handers, registering a .379 OBP, .518 SLG, and .897 OPS against them this year. That's usually what you see from a player who's $1,000 more on each site, and it's hard to understand why he remains so affordable. It also gets him a lineup spot right behind Pete Alonso, and he should have plenty of RBI opportunities in this game. We say that because he faces Erick Fedde, who's got a 5.29 ERA and 1.56 WHIP.

Adley Rutschman (FD $2800 DK $5600) will be the best catcher in baseball in the coming years, and he should never be below $3K on FanDuel in such a premium matchup.

Second Base

Jose Altuve FD - 2B 4100 DK - 2B 5900
Opponent - LAA (Tucker Davidson) Park - LAA
FD - 14.15 DK - 10.79

Since we got some good value plays at first base, let's get an expensive stud into our build. Altuve is actually one of my favorite plays of the day, benefiting from facing Davidson's 5.77 ERA and 1.78 WHIP. That alone makes Altuve attractive, especially since the slugging second baseman has a .319 AVG, .403 OBP, .664 SLG, and 1.067 OPS against left-handers this year. That's obviously daunting for Davidson, and it looks even worse since Jose has a .336 AVG, .425 OBP, .534 SLG, and .960 OPS across his last 31 games. He's also abolished the Angels this year too, accruing a .517 OBP and 1.184 OPS against them in their last seven matchups.

Ketel Marte FD - 2B 2800 DK - 2B 4900
Opponent - MIL (Jason Alexander) Park - ARI
FD - 10.42 DK - 7.98

It's been an up-and-down season for Marte, but this dude is a stud. The switch-hitting second baseman has a .299 AVG, .362 OBP, .508 SLG, and .870 OPS since 2019. That's a large sample size of dominance, with Ketel collecting a .357 OBP and .819 OPS since the end of April. That sort of potential makes him way too cheap in this price range, and we didn't even discuss that he gets to hit from his more favorable right side here. Since 2020, Marte has a .359 AVG, .618 SLG, and 1.020 OPS against southpaws. Jason Alexander is one he can abuse, too, posting a 4.97 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in his rookie season.

Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts FD - SS 4000 DK - SS 5200
Opponent - TEX (Dane Dunning) Park - BOS
FD - 12.58 DK - 9.56

The Red Sox have been disrespectful to this shortstop by not offering him a long-term contract, but he will make some stacks in the offseason. The slugging shortstop has a .313 AVG, .383 OBP, and .846 in what's been a "down" year, which is actually his lowest OPS since 2017. That might sound like we're belittling him, but that shows just how consistent this All-Star can be. The good news is that he's starting to get hot again, accumulating a .435 AVG, .481 OBP, .739 SLG, and 1.220 OPS across his last 12 games. We certainly don't expect Dane Dunning to slow him down, and we'll dive into his numbers in the next position.

Corey Seager FD - SS 4200 DK - SS 5400
Opponent - BOS (Undecided) Park - BOS
FD - 12.07 DK - 9.17

This Rangers-Red Sox game could be one of the highest-scoring matchups on this slate, with both teams projected for five runs. If Texas is going to have such a big game, Seager is going to be the critical piece to that stack. The shortstop has already set a career-high with 29 homers, generating a .281 AVG, .360 OBP, .529 SLG, and .889 OPS since June 10. That's 71 games of dominance, and it looks awesome since he has the platoon advantage against John Winckowski. The Red Sox righty was relegated from the rotation but is being forced to start here behind his 5.83 ERA and 1.56 WHIP.

Third Base

Rafael Devers FD - 3B 4000 DK - 3B 5800
Opponent - TEX (Dane Dunning) Park - BOS
FD - 14.07 DK - 10.63

We foreshadowed Dunning's disastrous numbers in the Bogaerts write-up, so let's start things there. The Rangers righty has a 1.40 WHIP this season, with the BoSox projected for 5.2 runs in this game. It's easy to see why they have such a high projection, combining for 34 runs across their last five games. That directly correlates with the health of this lineup, and Devers is benefiting from that as well. Rafael has a multi-hit night in three straight outings, hitting four doubles in that span and flirting with a .600 OBP. He should keep that going against a righty, with Devers donning a .289 AVG, .594 SLG, and .947 OPS against right-handers since 2020.

Alex Bregman FD - 3B 3600 DK - 3B 5400
Opponent - LAA (Tucker Davidson) Park - LAA
FD - 13.63 DK - 10.23

Let's cap off our Stros stack with their hottest hitter. This perennial All-Star has been scorching for well over a month now, totaling a .345 AVG, .433 OBP, .655 SLG, and 1.088 OPS across his last 34 games. That's the stud we saw in the past, and he shouldn't have any issues with a terrible pitcher like Tucker Davidson. The best part of this is that he gets the platoon advantage from the right side, producing a .300 AVG, .393 OBP, .538 SLG, and .931 OPS in 1,010 career at-bats against left-handers. If you want to stack Houston, Bregman needs to be the first player in your build!

Outfield

Cedric Mullins FD - OF 3100 DK - OF 5200
Opponent - OAK (Adrián Martínez) Park - BAL
FD - 12.47 DK - 9.59

We saved some salary at first base and then spent up at the other infield positions, so let's get some more value bats in the outfield. Mullins is the most expensive of our options, but he's way too cheap on FanDuel. This guy has been killing it atop the Orioles lineup, obtaining a .295 AVG, .375 OBP, .526 SLG, and .901 OPS across his last 21 games. Cedric is also one of the league leaders with 29 steals and has one of the best power-speed combos in the sport. He also gets to hit from the left side against Adrian Martinez, who's got a 5.28 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. In addition, Cedric has collected a .363 OBP, .503 SLG, and .869 OPS against righties since 2020.

Jake Fraley FD - OF 3000 DK - OF 3100
Opponent - COL (José Ureña) Park - CIN
FD - 12.36 DK - 9.38

These last two guys have some of the worst pricing I've ever seen. This Reds offense has been horrible all season, but Fraley is amid a breakout year. Almost all of his damage has come against right-handers, though, registering a .282 AVG, .370 OBP, .555 SLG, and .925 OPS against them. That's hard to overlook when considering his recent form, providing a .286 AVG, .386 OBP, .600 SLG, and .986 OPS across his last 21 games. Facing off with Jose Urena is an unbelievable matchup as well, with the Rockies righty amassing an 8.44 ERA and 1.85 WHIP across his previous eight starts.

Lars Nootbaar FD - OF 3400 DK - OF 3100
Opponent - CHC (Marcus Stroman) Park - STL
FD - 8.79 DK - 6.73

The Fraley pricing is a horrific decision by these DFS sites, but these Nootbar price tags might be even worse. This dude has been mashing atop this Cardinals lineup, compiling a .290 AVG, .416 OBP, .595 SLG, and 1.011 OPS across his last 43 games. His numbers are even higher since August 17, and this guy has proven to be an elite fantasy option since being moved to the top of this lineup. Most of his work has come against righties, tallying a .506 SLG and .863 OPS against them. Marcus Stroman has been a solid pitcher throughout his career, but he surrendered five runs and 13 baserunners across five innings in this matchup just last week.