DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 9/3/22

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Pitchers

Max Scherzer FD 11200 DK 10900
Opponent - WSH (Patrick Corbin) Park - WSH
FD - 52.37 DK - 29.66

After a couple bumps in the road, Mad Max was back to his dominant self holding the Rockies to one run while striking out 11 but got the deGrom treatment and took the loss. He will look to help the Mets hold on to the NL East tonight in an elite matchup against his old team. The have been bad all season but got considerably worse in the second half, especially in the K department, after trading Juan Soto. The price is high but as we discuss daily, it is not hard to build around considering the plethora of value bats in good spots. Fire up Scherzer in all formats.

Jake Odorizzi FD 8100 DK 6100
Opponent - MIA (Edward Cabrera) Park - MIA
FD - 29.25 DK - 14.38

Odorizzi isn’t going to win you many GPP’s on his own due to a lack of K upside but checks all the boxes for cash games. It starts with being  a huge favourite giving him elite win equity and rolls into his consistency holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in five of his last sox starts. To top it off, he also gets an elite matchup against a Marlins team that ranks dead last in wOBA(.268) and wRC+(72) in the second half while striking out over 24% of the time. Odorizzi is my top SP2 from a PTS/$ perspective on this slate.

Catcher/First Base

Pete Alonso FD 3700 DK 5500
Opponent - WSH (Patrick Corbin) Park - WSH
FD - 13.57 DK - 10.14

The broken pricing algorithm does make it much easier to fit Goldy but I am going to go a little more balanced and it starts with Alonso. He checks all the boxes starting with matchup as he faces Patrick Corbin who is 1-7 with a 8.54 ERA over his last nine starts while also giving up the third-most home runs(24) on the season. For Alonso, he comes in hot with hits in seven of his last nine games, has been better in the second half, and hits lefties very well. While Goldy tops the projections, the Polar Bear is my favourite PTS/$ pay up at first base tonight.

Ty France FD 3700 DK 4300
Opponent - CLE (Xzavion Curry) Park - CLE
FD - 9.46 DK - 7.21

Winners of seven of their last eight games, the Mariners now lead the AL Wildcard. Playing a huge part in that is Ty France who has heated up at the right time and enters the night with hits in five straight games including three home runs. He and the M’s now get a plus matchup against Xzavion Curry who has been recalled after giving up nine earned runs(3 HR) in his last two outings in AAA. Everything lines up for France to continue mashing and while he is in play on both sites, his best value is easily on DraftKings in the low $4K range.

Second Base

Tony Kemp FD 2500 DK 2900
Opponent - BAL (Austin Voth) Park - BAL
FD - 9.28 DK - 7.15
Adam Frazier FD 2600 DK 3000
Opponent - CLE (Xzavion Curry) Park - CLE
FD - 6.31 DK - 4.91

The second base position is pretty ugly tonight so I pair these two together as they are both salary savers and come with similar hit tools. Kemp is the one I will be leaning on the most as he is hitting leadoff for the A's, comes in with hits in six straight games with at least one RBI in four of them, and is hitting .288 with a .366 OBP over his last 20 games. The matchup is average-at-best as Austin Voth has been decent but has been worse against lefties. For Frazier, the knock is that he hits down in the lineup but the good news is that he has hits in four straight and five of his last six and the Mariners get a much better matchup.

Shortstop

Tommy Edman FD 3700 DK 5000
Opponent - CHC (Drew Smyly) Park - CHC
FD - 9.74 DK - 7.62

It is very close between Willy Adames and Tommy Edman if paying up at the position but I lean toward the latter for a couple of reasons starting with the fact Edman gets to hit leadoff in front of two legit MVP candidates. He also comes in hot with hits in five straight and eight of his last 10 games with five multi-hit efforts, four doubles, and four home runs. The matchup isn't great against veteran Drew Smyly who is having a resurgent season but the good news is the switch-hitting Edman has been better against lefties. He is in play in all formats.

Gunnar Henderson FD 2600 DK 2800
Opponent - OAK (Adam Oller) Park - OAK
FD - 7.81 DK - 5.97

If you are looking for more value on this slate, look no further than one of the top prospects in baseball. The Orioles called up Henderson at the end of August and he has promptly gone 5 for 12 with two doubles and home run in his first three games. It just so happens the Orioles also get one of the best matchups on the board against Adam Oller who has struggled with control(4.5 walks per 9) and enters with a 5.66 ERA/5.98 xFIP on the season. This is a buy-low as the young up-and-coming star is likely to start moving up the lineup and see a price bump in the near future. I will have exposure in all formats.

Third Base

Justin Turner FD 3000 DK 4500
Opponent - SD (Sean Manaea) Park - SD
FD - 10.84 DK - 8.18

The Dodgers lead all teams in implied runs in a plus matchup against a struggling Sean Manaea who has given up 6.7 hits per game and tallied an ugly 7.29 ERA in the second half. This lines up nice with our balanced approach as Justin Turner not only comes with a nice mid-range price on both sites but has been scorching hot. He comes in with hits in 12 straight while hitting .435 in that time with a .481 wOBA/216 wRC+. The price should be about $500 higher on both sites so let's take the buy-low in all formats and run with it.

Also Consider: Nolan Arenado(STL) against a lefty if you can afford it or go back to the A's/O's game and roster some value with Vimael Machin(OAK) or Ramon Urias(BAL) who have both been decent in the short term

Outfield

Hunter Renfroe FD 3700 DK 4200
Opponent - ARI (Madison Bumgarner) Park - ARI
FD - 10.68 DK - 8.02

I have yet to touch on the Brewers who get one of the best matchups on the board against Madison Bumgarner who continues to struggle in the second half giving up four or more earned runs in six straight(8.63 ERA/5.12 xFIP). The Brew Crew give us some tremendous value at the top of the lineup and my favourite of the bunch is Hunter Renfroe who checks almost every box. He comes in hot with hits in nine straight, has been better in the second half(.284/.369/.546 slash line), and also hits lefties very well(.361 wOBA/132 wRC+/.228 ISO). All things considered, Renfroe is my top PTS/$ play in the outfield.

Michael Harris II FD 3600 DK 4500
Opponent - MIA (Edward Cabrera) Park - MIA
FD - 10.03 DK - 7.67

Harris's price has settled into the mid-range on both sites but it may not last as he has been moved up the order and the Braves are reaping the rewards. He comes into Saturday's action with hits in 10 straight and 16 of his last 18 games while putting together an eye-popping .344/.408/.672 slash line. He provides a combination of speed(16 SB on the season) and is finding his power stroke with home runs in back-to-back games. I absolutely love the mid-range bats on this slate and the combination of Harris and Renfroe will be center pieces in my cash game lineup tonight.

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