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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/18/22
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Pitchers
Early
Zac Gallen FD 10100 DK 8500
Opponent - SF (Logan Webb) Park - SF
FD - 31.52 DK - 16.7
It is hard to get behind Heaney on this slate, even with the win equity, as he hasn't made it through five innings in four straight starts. Instead, I will save some money and roll with Zac Gallen who has been very consistent lately holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts(1.41 ERA/3.09 xFIP) including twice against today's opponent, the Giants. For fantasy, he has provided a 2x floor(on DK) in each of those starts and flashed big-time upside with 30+ DK points(3.5x at these prices) in three of those starts. All things considered, Gallen is my top pitcher on the early slate.
Main
Jacob deGrom FD 12000 DK 10300
Opponent - ATL (Max Fried) Park - ATL
FD - 35.2 DK - 20.46
He still hasn't exceeded 76 pitches in any of his three starts but has still looked absolutely dominant allowing just six hits in 16.2 innings while striking out 28 of 56 batters he has faced. I would have to check but I don't remember any pitcher striking out 50% of batters he has faced over a three-start stretch and it is backed up by an insane 24.6% swinging strike rate. Since last facing deGrom, the Braves have been on a tear but I am not concerned with the fantasy floor here at all and there is still so much more upside should he finally get close to a full workload. Fire up deGrom in all formats.
Also Consider Yu Darvish(SDP) who is a massive favourite(-380) against a Nats team that has seen their K rate spike since trading Juan Soto
Catcher/First Base
Early
Paul Goldschmidt FD 4700 DK 5800
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 11.23 DK - 8.51
This early slate has a very similar feel as the main slate last night and at least for the Cards, that is a good thing. They have a terrific balance of elite, top-priced plays and value at the top of the order which makes a partial or full-stack extremely viable. Goldy is right near the top of our projections and while the price is peaking on FanDuel, he still remains under $6K on DraftKings despite staying red-hot with hits in six of his last seven games with three home runs. More importantly, the Cards get one of, if not the best matchup on the board against Senzatela who has given up 3+ earned runs in five of his last six starts while only striking out 15% of batters and giving up over 40% hard contact. Goldy is my top pay up on this slate and in play in all formats.
Main
Eric Hosmer FD 2700 DK 3000
Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - PIT
FD - 8.53 DK - 6.58
If we are going to be paying up for both deGrom and Darvish on DraftKings tonight, we are going to need some value bats and first base is where I am going to start. First of all, the position is a tough one with the top guys in tough matchups making it easier to stomach Hosmer who is about as average as they come. He has hits in six of 10 games since joining the Red Sox but the team is in a good spot today against JT Brubaker who has struggled to a 4.98 ERA since the end of June while giving up a 49% hard contact rate. Hosmer doesn't excite me at all but I will take the risk given the tough position and great spot the Red Sox are in tonight, especially if it means I can stack deGrom and Darvish on the mound.
Second Base
Early
Nolan Gorman FD 3100 DK 4300
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 10.06 DK - 7.68
Going to stick with the Cardinals at second base and roll with Nolan Gorman who is checking every box. He comes in red-hot with hits in 11 straight games where he has started including four doubles, four home runs, nine RBI, and 11 runs scored. I expect those kind of production numbers to continue as he sits with a plus 43% hard contact rate and better yet, sits Top 15 in the league with an elite 9.5% barrel rate. He gets the pleasure of hitting behind two superstars(Goldy/Arenado) which makes it odd the price has yet to correct. Take advantage in all formats.
Also Consider: Marcus Semien(TEX) who hits leadoff and is cheap on both sites or Nick Madrigal(CHC) if back in the leadoff spot for the Cubs in a plus matchup
Main
Tucupita Marcano FD 2300 DK 2000
Opponent - BOS (Josh Winckowski) Park - BOS
FD - 8.01 DK - 6.21
Second base is another dead zone on this slate with Brandon Lowe in a good spot but ice cold and DJ LeMahieu in a decent spot against Berrios but is still listed as day-to-day. I will once again chase the value narrative in hopes to stack top pitching but we will have to stay tuned for starting lineups on this one. Marcano was elevated to the leadoff spot on Tuesday and is expected to be there again today. He has reached base in four straight games with hits in three of those and gets a plus matchup against Winckowski who has struggled with a 6.07 ERA/5.41 xFIP over his last six starts and has been much worse against lefties(.377 wOBA/.491 SLG).
Shortstop
Early
Corey Seager FD 3700 DK 5100
Opponent - OAK (Zach Logue) Park - OAK
FD - 12.52 DK - 9.5
Playing the Rangers in these smash spots has been a very frustrating venture recently but I am going back to the well on Thursday. There is a lot of PTS/$ value at the top of the lineup but I will be paying up and rolling with the one player who has actually been producing, sort of. Seager comes in with hits in six of his last nine games but what stands out is the four multi-hit efforts and if you are worried about the lefty/lefty matchup, he has very similar numbers in both splits in terms of wOBA and wRC+. More than anything it's about the matchup against Logue who has given up 16 hits and 10 earned runs in three starts since being recalled and he has also given up a .300 wOBA/.421 SLG to lefties.
Also Consider; Nico Hoerner(CHC) who has been excellent lately with hits in seven of his last nine including four multi-hit games. He also gets a boost if elevated up the batting order today
Main
Xander Bogaerts FD 3200 DK 4300
Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - PIT
FD - 11.03 DK - 8.38
The decision at shortstop is pretty clear here as Xander Bogaerts has seen his price reach a near season-low on both sites. I get he hasn't exactly been at his best in the second half but is still hitting over .300 on the season while the Red Sox sit right behind the Padres in implied runs today in a plus matchup against JT Brubaker. With the top-priced plays at shortstop(Lindor, Bichette, Swanson) all in much tougher matchups, Xander is easily our top play at the position in all formats.
Third Base
Early
Nolan Arenado FD 3900 DK 5400
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 11.34 DK - 8.59
Brendan Donovan FD 2500 DK 2800
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 9.36 DK - 7.23
You may have noticed the Cardinals are my top team on the early slate and like I mentioned with Goldy, it comes down to the mix of value and top-priced plays and a tremendous matchup. Third base gives us all the above and it starts with Arenado who has hits in 12 of his last 14 games and is having a terrific second half ranking 3rd behind Goldy and Judge with a .440 wOBA and 190 wRC+. Donovan has multi-position eligibility on both sites but what really stands out is the combination of price which helps us load up on Goldy/Arenado and the fact he is once again projected to hit second in the lineup right ahead of those two superstars. You can play them together as well with Donovan being used an outfielder as well.
Main
Manny Machado FD 4500 DK 5800
Opponent - WSH (Aníbal Sánchez) Park - WSH
FD - 15.32 DK - 11.62
We have saved at almost every position on the main slate thus far so let's spend some of the money at third base. No batter has put their team on their back quite like Manny recently as he comes in scorching hot with multiple hits in eight straight games with nine extra-base hits and has tallied a .406 wOBA/166 wRC+ since the All-Star break. The Padres also happen to get the best matchup on the board against Anibal Sanchez who has given up 3+ earned runs in each of his six starts with a whopping 10 home runs(22% HR/FB rate). Manny is my top bat on the slate and it won't be hard to pair him with deGrom and Darvish as a three-headed monster.
Outfield
Early
Ian Happ FD 3300 DK 4400
Opponent - BAL (Spenser Watkins) Park - BAL
FD - 10.35 DK - 7.79
The Cubs have provided some excellent PTS/$ value lately winning five of their last seven games and scoring four or more runs in six of those. They get another plus matchup today against Spenser Watkins who has been struggling giving up three or more earned runs in three of his last four games(5.03 ERA) with three home runs. For Happ, he has gone hitless in two straight but is still hitting .317 with an eye-popping .423 wOBA/173 wRC+ over his last 11 games. He hits in the heart of the order and is very affordable on both sites making him one of my top plays in the outfield today.
Also Consider: Lars Nootbar(STL) who is still near min price on both sites and expected to remain the Cards leadoff hitter
Main
Alex Verdugo FD 3000 DK 3000
Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - PIT
FD - 9.55 DK - 7.34
I love Padres' combo of Profar and Soto in the outfield and will have a ton of exposure but wanted to find some more PTS/$ value to ensure we can load up at pitching and possibly with two sluggers. Enter Alex Verdugo who has heated up in a big way recently with hits in nine of his last 11 games while hitting .447 with a .539 wOBA(WHOA!). He has also been hitting cleanup during that time and gets a great matchup against Brubaker who has struggled lately(4.98 ERA last 8 starts) and been worse against lefties. Fire up Verdugo in all formats with his best value coming on DraftKings.
