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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 8/15/22
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Pitchers
Gerrit Cole FD - P 11000 DK - SP 10100
Opponent - TB (Undecided) Park - NYY
FD - 45.9 DK - 26.22
Cole got back to his dominant self in his last start against the Mariners holding them to four hits over seven innings while striking out eight and walking none. Oddly enough the price has come down to almost a season-low, at least on DraftKings, while entering the night as one of the biggest favourites on the board. He faces a Rays team that he has absolutely dominated all season holding them to just eight hits and two earned runs over three starts while striking out 29 batters(40%). Cole leads all pitchers in our projections and is an elite play in all formats.
Joe Ryan FD - P 9000 DK - SP 7300
Opponent - KC (Kris Bubic) Park - MIN
FD - 34.7 DK - 18.66
There is a path to paying up for both pitchers on this slate but I am jumping on the value train to get a huge upgrade in my bats and Joe Ryan leads the way. While he has gotten roughed up in two of his last three starts, I am not worried for several reasons starting with the fact those came against red-hot teams in the Padres and Dodgers. Those two starts also came on the road and Ryan has some very glaring home/road splits this season and has been elite at home with a 2.92 ERA(5.05 ERA on the road). Tonight he faces a Royals team that has been better in the second half in terms of wOBA and wRC+ but have also seen their K rate(23.3%) go up. All things considered, Ryan is my top SP2 on this slate.
Catcher/First Base
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD - 1B 4000 DK - 1B 6000
Opponent - BAL (Kyle Bradish) Park - TOR
FD - 14.83 DK - 11.17
Vladdy's hit streak came to an end at 22 games on Sunday and while the power somewhat lacked(3 HR), he posted an elite .374/.424/.582 slash line during that time. This and the smaller slate explain the high price tag tonight but with Alonso and Freeman in much tougher matchups, Vladdy is easily the top pay-up option. He and the Jays also get a plus matchup against Kyle Bradish who has posted a 6.42 ERA over 13 starts and has given up at least one home run in 11 of those(21.3% HR/FB rate). Better yet, he has been much worse against righties giving up a .435 wOBA and insane .605 SLG %. Fire up Vladdy in all formats.
Nathaniel Lowe FD - 1B 2900 DK - 1B 2900
Opponent - OAK (James Kaprielian) Park - TEX
FD - 9.3 DK - 7.05
I mentioned a path to paying up for two pitchers tonight and the Texas Rangers are the team I will be targeting for value to make it happen. Leading the way in terms of PTS/$ value is Nathaniel Lowe who has been incredibly consistent hitting .300 with a .372 wOBA and 147 wRC+ going all the way back to the start of June. He and the Rangers also get a plus matchup against James Kaprielian who has had his moments but sits with a 4.38 ERA/5.20 xFIP and has given up a Top 10 barrel rate(9.3%) this season. I will have exposure to Lowe in all formats Monday.
Second Base
Luis Arraez FD - 1B 3100 DK - 1B/2B 3600
Opponent - KC (Kris Bubic) Park - MIN
FD - 10.04 DK - 7.86
Speaking of value we have a situation very similar to Michael Brantley's a year ago where we get the league's leader in average(.333) at an incredible discount on DraftKings. He comes in with hits in five of his last six games and the most impressive part of that is that he has tallied four three-hit games in that time. The only knock here is that he has been below-average against lefties but as a leadoff hitter on a team with the second-highest implied run total I am on board in all formats, at least on DraftKings.
Marcus Semien FD 2400 DK 4100
Opponent - OAK (James Kaprielian) Park - OAK
FD - 12.42 DK - 9.39
Another leadoff hitter in a good spot tonight but in a totally different situation in terms of season performance. It has been a disappointing season for Semien who signed a huge deal in the offseason but he does check enough boxes tonight and starts with the matchup against James Kaprielian who has some big reverse splits with a 5.62 xFIP and .342 wOBA against righties. For Semien, what he lacks in the average department he makes up for with upside coming in with 17 home runs on season with an added 19 stolen bases. I like the Rangers team total over tonight and for fantasy, my exposure starts at the top of the lineup.
Shortstop
Corey Seager FD 3700 DK 5100
Opponent - OAK (James Kaprielian) Park - OAK
FD - 11.15 DK - 8.47
With both Trea Turner and Francisco Lindor in tough matchups, I am a bit surprised to see Corey Seager comes behind them in price but I am not complaining as the Rangers are one of my top teams to target. Like Semien, it has been a bit of a disappointing season after a huge contract in the offseason but the good news is that he has been better as of late with a .327/.413/.564 slash line over his last 14 games. He is right at the top of our projections at the position and I will have exposure in all formats.
Carlos Correa FD 3000 DK 4400
Opponent - KC (Kris Bubic) Park - KC
FD - 12.19 DK - 9.23
Right there with Seager at the top of the shortstop projections is Carlos Correa but what might make him more chalky is the discounted price. He has also been more consistent than Seager over the course of the season(.271/.351/.440 slash line) and especially in the short term with hits in five straight and eight of his last nine starts. The matchup isn't at the top of my list as Bubic has been better than the overall numbers suggest but the splits is where I turn as Correa has been terrific against lefties with a .369 wOBA/144 wRC+ this season. Fire up Correa in all formats.
Third Base
Matt Chapman FD 3200 DK 4700
Opponent - BAL (Kyle Bradish) Park - BAL
FD - 10.32 DK - 7.67
Third base is pretty ugly tonight considering Patrick Wisdom and Josh Rojas top the salary(on DK) at the position. Instead, I will turn to Matt Chapman and while I hate that he hits down in the Jays lineup, he checks a ton of boxes. After a disappointing start to the season, he is finally seeing that average climb back up on the back of a terrific second half where he is hitting .294 with a .400 OBP and has also seen the power return with eight home runs. Like I mentioned with Vladdy, I love the matchup for the righties as Bradish has reverse splits and has given up a .435 wOBA and .604 SLG in the split. Chapman is my top play at third tonight.
Also Consider: Josh Donaldson(NYY) who is similar in that the average is ugly but he provides some power upside in a plus matchup against Ryan Yarbrough(5.08 ERA/5.04 xFIP)
Outfield
Byron Buxton FD 3700 DK 5600
Opponent - KC (Kris Bubic) Park - KC
FD - 13.69 DK - 10.29
Our projections are very high on both Judge and Buxton tonight but I lean toward the latter simply due to price as Judge is in another stratosphere. While he hasn't been on the same MVP pace as Judge, Buxton comes in with hits in three of his last four games including two home runs, has posted a .376 wOBA/149 wRC+ over the last 14 days, and has crushed lefties to the tune of a .408 wOBA/171 wRC+ on the season. Put it all together and Buxton is my top play in the outfield tonight.
Anthony Santander FD 3300 DK 4900
Opponent - TOR (Yusei Kikuchi) Park - TOR
FD - 9.43 DK - 7.18
Ryan McKenna FD 2100 DK 2000
Opponent - TOR (Yusei Kikuchi) Park - TOR
FD - 9.44 DK - 7.2
I can't go the entire article without at least mentioning the Orioles whose impressive offence has gotten them right into the wildcard race in the American League. Not only that, they get a plus matchup against Kikuchi who has been terrible posting a 6.93 ERA/4.54 xFIP over his last 10 starts while giving up 14 home runs(36% HR/FB rate) and an ugly 48% hard contact rate/21% barrel rate. Santander is in the middle of setting career-highs across the board(.261 avg, .340 OBP, 20 HR, 60 RBI) and as a switch hitter has been better against lefties(.388 wOBA/155 wRC+). For Mckenna, the recommendation hinges on the starting lineup as he has hit leadoff in each of the last two games and has also been very good against lefty pitching(.375 wOBA/147 wRC+).
