DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/11/22

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Pitchers

Dylan Cease FD - P 10900 DK - SP 10400
Opponent - KC (Zack Greinke) Park - KC
FD - 43.63 DK - 24.55

The American League Cy Young race is heating up and it's not that Verlander is slipping but more that Cease is on a historical pace at the moment. He comes into Thursday having held opponents to one or fewer earned runs in 13 straight starts(.59 ERA) while striking out 31% of batters and he has also picked up a win in seven of his last eight. He now faces a bottom 10 Royals offence and while they don't K much overall(21%), Cease has dominated them twice with 18 total strikeouts. He is our top pitcher and once again an elite play in all formats.

Merrill Kelly FD - P 10100 DK - SP 9100
Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - ARI
FD - 33.53 DK - 17.81

The D-Backs won't be playing in October this season but they are definitely building a core that should contend in years to come and veteran Merill Kelly has and will continue to be a big part of that. He hasn't quite been Cease-level good but has still been very good lately holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in seven straight starts(1.49 ERA). He also gets arguably the best matchup on the board against the struggling Pirates who rank bottom three in almost all statistical categories including strikeouts(25% K rate). The price has peaked but I am fully invested on this smaller slate in all formats.

Also Consider: Zach Plesac(CLE) as a value SP2 on DraftKings

Catcher/First Base

C.J. Cron FD 4300 DK 5000
Opponent - STL (Dakota Hudson) Park - COL
FD - 15.95 DK - 11.99

If you have the salary, paying up for MVP odds leader, Paul Goldschmidt, presents the most upside but he also comes at a huge cost. For cash games, I will turn to the other dugout in this game and roll with C.J. Cron who has been just as good or better in the short term as he enters with hits in five straight and eight of his last 10 games including seven extra-base hits. He is also on pace to set a new career high in home runs(23 coming into tonight) and more importantly sits 7th overall with 80 runs batted in this season. With salary cap in mind, Cron is my top play at first base tonight.

Trey Mancini FD 3100 DK 3700
Opponent - TEX (Cole Ragans) Park - TEX
FD - 9.93 DK - 7.59

While tough to watch any player leave the team that drafted him, it could work out for the better in the long run as he is going to get a shot at a World Series title in Houston. For fantasy, he has crushed in his short time with his new team with hits in three of four starts(five of seven games overall) including three home runs and seven runs batted in already. He isn't going to play everyday in this deep Astros lineup but if back today against a lefty, I am on board in all formats, especially on DraftKings in the sub $4K territory.

Second Base

Nolan Gorman FD - 2B 3400 DK - 2B 4500
Opponent - COL (Germán Márquez) Park - COL
FD - 13.79 DK - 10.53
Brendan Rodgers FD - 2B 3500 DK - 2B 4700
Opponent - STL (Dakota Hudson) Park - COL
FD - 12 DK - 9.21

This series has not disappointed if you are into offence and we are going back to the Coors Field well once again on Thursday. One of the biggest decisions we face is deciding between these two at second base as they are in the same price range on both sites. Let's start with Gorman who is starting to look like the top prospect he is with hits in eight straight games which includes three home runs, pushing his season total up to 12. With that, he has been bumped up to the two-hole which presents in credible opportunity hitting ahead of Goldy and Arenado. Speaking of red-hot, Brendan Rodgers comes in 9 for 16 over his last three games and going back to the start of July, is hitting .328 and getting on base at nearly a 40% clip. Like Gorman, he has also been bumped up the lineup and with that both are top plays at the position today.

Shortstop

José Iglesias FD - 2B 3200 DK - SS 4200
Opponent - STL (Dakota Hudson) Park - COL
FD - 10.03 DK - 7.86

When looking for a solid PTS/$ play there are three key things I am looking for including price, opportunity, and form. Enter Jose Iglesias who touches on all three starting with the form as he enters with hits in five straight and 11 of his last 12 games which has elevated his average to .318 on the season. Like his teammate at second base, this hot streak has forced the manager to push him up near the top of the lineup which has created that opportunity and then you add in the very affordable price on both sites and you have yourself a top play at shortstop in all formats.

It will be hard to convince me to use any other player at the position but if looking for some leverage you can also consider Paul DeJong(STL) who hits down in the Cards lineup but has been hot going seven hits in his last 14 at-bats with five extra-base hits.

Third Base

Alex Bregman FD 3100 DK 5000
Opponent - TEX (Cole Ragans) Park - TEX
FD - 12.77 DK - 9.58

This won't go down as one of Bregman's best seasons but the good for us in fantasy is that he has been much more consistent in the second half. While the power is still lacking, he has posted a more Bregman-like .306/.363/.472 slash line since the break and has hits in 11 of his last 13 games with 12 runs scored. The biggest issue has been his effectiveness against southpaws but given his large body of work in the split over his career, I am not too concerned. If you have the money on DraftKings, Arenado at $700 more is the play for me but on FanDuel Bregman comes at a much bigger discount from the top guys and is easily my top play at the position.

Alec Bohm FD 2800 DK 4200
Opponent - MIA (Edward Cabrera) Park - MIA
FD - 8.28 DK - 6.37

After an impressive 2020 campaign, Bohm took a step back in year two but has fully recovered and is really starting to become the player the Phillies expected when they drafted him third overall in 2018. Going back to the start of July, he has hits in 24 of 28 games while hitting .375 in that time with an insane .417 wOBA/168 wRC+ and deservedly has been moved up to the three-hole in the lineup. The price is starting to correct a bit but for now he remains at top PTS/$ play day in and day out. He is my favorite play at third base if playing cash games as it allows us to spend up at pitching and for some bats in the Cards/Rockies game.

Outfield

Eloy Jiménez FD - OF 2900 DK - OF 4400
Opponent - KC (Zack Greinke) Park - KC
FD - 11.44 DK - 8.69

There are a couple of themes to this article and they are former top prospects and players who have been crushing in the second half of the season. Jimenez hits on both of those and while he wasn't drafted(international signing) he was the #3 prospect in baseball and signed a huge deal before ever playing in the big leagues. He really hits on the second narrative as he enters Thursday red-hot hitting .391 with a .400 wOBA/195 wRC+ in the second half. He has struggled against lefties but made up for it against righties with a .363 wOBA/139 wRC+ and faces a below-average arm in Zack Greinke. At these prices which have failed to adjust he is a top PTS/$ play in the outfield and overall on this slate.

Steven Kwan FD 2700 DK 4200
Opponent - DET (Garrett Hill) Park - DET
FD - 10.33 DK - 8.02

We could definitely see some runs in this game today as the wind is blowing out in Detroit and the Guardians are most definitely the side we will be targeting. It starts with Steven Kwan who has been the regular leadoff hitter since mid to late June and the move has paid off for them as he has been incredibly consistent with hits in 21 of his last 22 games and has a .355 average and .385 wOBA in that time. More importantly, the price is in a great spot from a PTS/$ perspective putting him near the top of my exposure rankings in the outfield today.

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