DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/4/22

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Pitchers

Justin Verlander FD 11200 DK 10400
Opponent - CLE (Zach Plesac) Park - CLE
FD - 37.4 DK - 20.63

While I think Verlander is the top cash game option on the main slate, I do want to warn that we shouldn’t be totally fooled by some of his stats this season. He has a 1.81 ERA but the xFIP is much higher at 3.47. He’s striking out fewer than a batter per inning and has gotten lucky on BABIP and LOB%. All that being said, he’s still the best play on this slate which is really weak on pitching. I don’t feel amazing about the matchup, but again this is more about lack of options than about a solid case for Verlander.

Noah Syndergaard FD 7700 DK 7600
Opponent - WSH (Paolo Espino) Park - WSH
FD - 35.35 DK - 18.19

José Quintana FD 7700 DK 6700
Opponent - CHC (Marcus Stroman) Park - CHC
FD - 34.38 DK - 17.61

I’m putting these two guys together here because there are a number of similarities between them. Thor will start for the Phillies and is coming in as a massive -239 favorite against the now Soto-less Nationals. And Quintana is a -150 favorite against the Cubs though has a lower opposing run line. Neither dial the K’s up all that much, but the matchups play. Pairing either with Verlander on DK works because of the price points which don’t break the bank. But again, neither is close to an ace right now either. I think I would lean Quintana here on DK because you get the $900 savings and that means something.

Catcher/First Base

Rhys Hoskins FD 3100 DK 4000
Opponent - WSH (Paolo Espino) Park - WSH
FD - 13.13 DK - 9.75

J.T. Realmuto FD 3300 DK 4700
Opponent - WSH (Paolo Espino) Park - WSH
FD - 11.65 DK - 8.89

The Phillies have the highest implied run line on the slate at 5.6 facing off against Paolo Espino. The latter has a lower K rate and though he’s been around baseball forever, doesn’t have much in the way of put away stuff. Hoskins is have a solid year though hasn’t made quite the gains that were expected. He still has a .799 OPS and 20 home runs but we might just never see the power numbers he put up very early in his career. While better against lefties, he still is well above average against righties and is an easy cash game play on this slate.

And as far as catchers are concerned, Realmuto definitely gets it done from a fantasy perspective. He has 10 home runs and 14 stolen bases on the season with a mid-700s OPS. He should be hitting cleanup in this matchup and the price on both sites, considering the positional scarcity on DraftKings is palatable enough.

Second Base

Brandon Lowe FD 3000 DK 5000
Opponent - DET (Drew Hutchison) Park - DET
FD - 13.2 DK - 9.85

After breaking it out of the box with 39 home runs last season, Lowe has crashed to Earth some this year and only has seven through 188 plate appearances. There’s been a lot of injury stuff in here which helps explain some of it. But his hard contact rate is down and the roundball rate is up, which of course will sap some of the power. That being said, the Rays have the third-highest implied run line on the slate behind the Phillies and Red Sox when they face off against Drew Hutchison. I definitely like the FanDuel price for Lowe more than the DraftKings one.

You can consider Jose Altuve (FD $3900 DK $5400) here though the price is significantly more than Lowe. But, of course, it’s for good reason. He’s been a much better hitter this season with 19 home runs and an .875 OPS. It will cost you which is why the decision is a bit closer than just him being better at the plate.

Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts FD 3100 DK 4600
Opponent - KC (Kris Bubic) Park - KC
FD - 12.08 DK - 9.18

We haven’t talked too much about the Red Sox though they have the second-highest run line of the day facing off against Kris Bubic. Bogaerts hasn’t put together much in the way of power this season with only nine home runs through his 424 plate appearances, but this is a guy who’s slashed well against lefties throughout his career. He has a 134 wRC+ and .867 OPS in that split with a .373 wOBA. We’ll take that kind of production against a guy like Bubic here.

Tim Anderson FD 3200 DK 5200
Opponent - TEX (Cole Ragans) Park - TEX
FD - 12.04 DK - 9.39

With Anderson we are buying on the contact rate through and through. He puts the ball in play about 80% of the time and though he doesn’t take many walks still has managed a .352 on base percentage. Hitting at the top of the order has its advantages as well and the White Sox are in a decent spot against Ragans who has had minor league K stuff but is making his major league debut here.

Third Base

Alec Bohm FD 2800 DK 3900
Opponent - WSH (Paolo Espino) Park - WSH
FD - 10.27 DK - 7.9

Again, I think we are going to want to stack as many Phillies as possible on this slate which is going to mean at least trying to roster the top of the order. Bohm is projected to hit third right now and while he doesn’t have huge power, it’s hard to ignore the slot in the lineup at these prices. FanDuel is pretty easy at sub-$3K and the DK price works as well. He doesn’t strike out a ton which isn’t a problem anyway facing off against Espino.

Yandy Díaz FD 2900 DK 4300
Opponent - DET (Drew Hutchison) Park - DET
FD - 10.54 DK - 8.04

He should be hitting leadoff for the Rays in their matchup against Hutchison and is coming at fair prices considering the slot in the order. He’s having a fine enough season with a .783 OPS though he doesn’t generate much in the way of power or speed. His skill is that he gets on base nearly 40% of the time thanks to a 14% walk rate and 10% K rate. That’s impressive and gives him a higher floor even if the fantasy ceiling isn’t always there.

Outfield

Kyle Schwarber FD 3500 DK 5300
Opponent - WSH (Paolo Espino) Park - WSH
FD - 14 DK - 10.37

Nick Castellanos FD 2500 DK 3200
Opponent - WSH (Paolo Espino) Park - WSH
FD - 12.19 DK - 9.25

Schwarber should be in the leadoff slot for the Phillies and has one of the highest hitter projections on this slate of games. He’s on pace for the best power season of his career with 33 home runs, just five away from 38 which is his all-time high. He strikes out a bunch, but again that’s not an issue in this matchup. If anything, he’s run bad this season on the BABIP (.205) which is 60 points lower than his career average. He’s expensive on DK but with the pitching situation, I think we can go there.

Meanwhile, Castellanos has dropped in the order, but I think we can go there considering the matchup and the price. He’s struggled to produce anything in the way of power this season which is definitely a concern and the hard contact rate is down. But he’s also run real bad on the Hr/FB ratio as well. The price is just too low on both sites.

Jarren Duran FD 2800 DK 2900
Opponent - KC (Kris Bubic) Park - KC
FD - 10.34 DK - 7.98

Tommy Pham FD 2900 DK 4900
Opponent - KC (Kris Bubic) Park - KC
FD - 11.23 DK - 8.53

These guys should be hitting 1-2 for the Red Sox against the lefty Bubic and both are coming at bargains for the main slate. Duran is too cheap on DraftKings coming at under $3K and Pham is a deal on FanDuel as well. Duran hasn’t put up huge numbers but does project for a lot of steals if he can manage his way on base. Meanwhile, Pham has flashed some power and speed upside in the right matchups and for his career is significantly better against lefty pitching with a .369 wOBA and .852 OPS.

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