DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 7/30/22

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Pitchers

Framber Valdez FD 10400 DK 9700
Opponent - SEA (Chris Flexen) Park - SEA
FD - 37.05 DK - 19.27

We have a big decision to make at the top on this main slate with a couple of lefties who are both big favourites. With Kershaw taking the mound in Coors, I slightly lean Valdez in a home matchup against the Mariners who have had no answer for Astros pitching in the first two games of the series scoring a combined three runs. Consistency has been the name of the game for Valdez who has held opponents to three or fewer earned runs in 18 of 19 starts and two or fewer in 13 of those starts. All things considered, Valdez is our top pitcher on this slate.

Ranger Suárez FD 8400 DK 7600
Opponent - PIT (Mitch Keller) Park - PIT
FD - 29.55 DK - 14.54

Much like last night, we are going to be looking for some value at the SP2 spot to try and fit the Dodgers' bats in Coors or one of the other top/expensive offensive teams(ATL, HOU, STL). What draws me to Suarez is the fact he is a -160 favourite and cheaper than the opposing pitcher(Mitch Keller) who has worse numbers overall. Suarez may lack GPP winning upside with a 19% K rate but he has made up for it with consistency posting a 2.98 ERA/3.52 xFIP over his last eight starts. He also faces a Pirates team that has lost six of seven games out of the break and are a bottom-five team against left-handed pitching. I will have exposure to Suarez in all formats.

Catcher/First Base

Matt Olson FD 3800 DK 5500
Opponent - ARI (Corbin Martin) Park - ARI
FD - 13.66 DK - 10.17

First base is loaded at the top and I wouldn't fault anyone for loading up on Goldy or Freeman but I am going to take the discount and ride with Olson who is in an equally good matchup. We are never rostering Olson because of his consistency(.250 average) but rather because of his fantasy production in the middle of the loaded Braves lineup. While he has yet to record a multi-hit effort in the second half, he does have two doubles, three home runs, and six RBI. He now faces Corbin Martin who has been running a slippery slop walking nine batters in his last two outings, given up 48% hard contact on the season and has been much worse against lefties(.378 wOBA against). All things considered, Olson is my top play at first tonight.

Yuli Gurriel FD 2400 DK 3500
Opponent - SEA (Chris Flexen) Park - SEA
FD - 8.65 DK - 6.67

If it's value you are after look no further than Yuli Gurriel who checks a ton of boxes tonight. He has come out swinging in the second half and has tallied a hit in six of seven games including multi-hit efforts in two of his last three. He is also now up in the two-hole in the lineup and while the matchup is only average as Flexen has been decent, he does have reverse splits and has struggled more against righties(.363 wOBA/.500 SLG against). He price offers some big savings to either load up on pitching or full stack a top offence.

Second Base

Luis Rengifo FD 2400 DK 3700
Opponent - TEX (Glenn Otto) Park - TEX
FD - 7.6 DK - 5.86

Fully committed to the value approach at second base and leading the way is Luis Rengifo who has been on an absolute tear for over a month now. He came out of the break with hits in six of seven games and is hitting .355 with an elite .393 wOBA/159 wRC+ going all the way back to June 22. With Mike Trout out of the lineup, Rengifo has also found his way into the top four of the batting order and best of all, the sites have yet to fully adjust his price. Lock and load in all formats.

Also Consider: Jose Altuve(HOU) if stacking the Astros who are likely low-owned on this slate or Cesar Hernadez(WAS) who is hitting near the top of the lineup and comes in with hits in four straight

Shortstop

Trea Turner FD 4200 DK 6000
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 16.2 DK - 12.48

Shortstop is most definitely a spend-up spot tonight and Trea Turner leads the way with an elite matchup in Coors Field. Through two games against the Rockies, he has gone 4 for 9 while also extending his hit streak to 16 games while posting a .362/.371/.623 slash line in that time. He now gets a chance to extend that streak and build on his MVP resume in a plus matchup against Kyle Freeland who did look good in his last start in Milwaukee but has been much worse at home with a 5.66 ERA and .379 wOBA against. Turner is my top shortstop and arguably my top overall play on this slate.

Dansby Swanson FD 3600 DK 5300
Opponent - ARI (Corbin Martin) Park - ARI
FD - 13.01 DK - 9.93

There is a chance that you just can't afford the big three Dodgers' bats, especially if paying up for two pitchers and that route may not be such a bad idea to get some leverage. If that is the route you choose, the Braves come at a nice discount and give you a pivot at almost every position. At short, I am back on Swanson who is heating back up with hits in five of his last six games while scoring six runs. Like I mentioned with Olson, the Braves face a pitcher in Martin who has somewhat gotten away with murder walking nine in his last two appearances while giving up 48% hard contact. Swanson is in play in all formats.

Third Base

Alex Bregman FD 2800 DK 4400
Opponent - SEA (Chris Flexen) Park - SEA
FD - 11.02 DK - 8.27

The Astros are a near-perfect fit for this slate if you are targeting top pitching as their prices really stand out from a PTS/$ perspective. This is especially true for Bregman whose price is still down based off an underwhelming first half. The good news is that he has come on strong since the break with hits in seven of nine games including four multi-hit efforts and six extra-base hits. Like I mentioned above with Gurriel, the matchup also aligns as Flexen comes in with reverse splits and has been much worse against righties. Bregman is easily my top play at third base today, especially on FanDuel in the sub $3K range.

Brendan Donovan FD 2500 DK 3100
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 8.75 DK - 6.55

The Cardinals are also in a good spot today and provide some nice value mixed with some top bats. For value, I am looking at Donovan who provides multiple position eligibility and is available at third base after filling in for Arenado while up in Toronto. He has been a pleasant surprise for the Cards all season hitting .281 with 129 wRC+ and is projected to hit fifth in the lineup today in a plus matchup against Erick Fedde. With that multi-position eligibility combined with the matchup, he becomes a top value target for me today in all formats.

Outfield

Ronald Acuña Jr. FD 4100 DK 4800
Opponent - ARI (Corbin Martin) Park - ARI
FD - 15.93 DK - 12

On FanDuel, I am likely just going to pay up for Betts or Alvarez to align with my top two teams but on DraftKings, it is a completely different story. For some reason, Ronald Acuna has reached a season-low price and is somehow actually cheaper than teammate Michael Harris who hits 9th in the lineup. I get Acuna isn't having the best season hitting just .259 but he is an all-world talent and does have hits in four of his last five games. He provides an elite combination of consistency, power, and speed and now we can add elite PTS/$ value to the resume. Get on board before the price is back near $6K.

Tyler O'Neill FD 2900 DK 4200
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 14.26 DK - 10.77
Dylan Carlson FD 2800 DK 4100
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 12.36 DK - 9.4

The DraftKings price on Acuna is definitely going to put the Cards outfielders in a lower-owned position today and I am all over it. Let's start with Carlson who hits leadoff against right-handed pitching and has been excellent in the short term posting a .418 wOBA and 176 wRC+ going back to July 14. He is a switch-hitter that has been better against lefties but given the plus matchup against Fedde, he is in play for me in all formats. After a red-ht start to the season Tyler O'Neill has cooled off considerably and some of that can be attributed to injuries. The good news is that he is slated to hit 2nd in the lineup behind Carlson which makes for a very affordable start to a Cardinals stack. I won't have exposure in cash games but love jamming in O'Neill in GPP to full stack the projected lower-owned Cards.

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