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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 7/28/22
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Pitchers
Zack Wheeler FD 10700 DK 10200
Opponent - PIT (Zach Thompson) Park - PIT
FD - 36.01 DK - 19.34
Wheeler looked sharp coming out of the break giving up just three hits and one earned run with six strikeouts and no walks over seven innings. It was a continuation of the consistency he showed us in the first half and has now held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 12 of his last 14 starts. The price tag has nearly reached another season-high but what makes it worth it is the uptick in strikeouts over the last two seasons thanks to a fastball that is generating an elite 14.4% swinging strike rate. Capping it off is a matchup against a Pirates team that has come out flat in the second half losing four of five games while scoring just 11 runs. Lock Wheeler in as the top target on the mound tonight.
Shohei Ohtani FD 11100 DK 8900
Opponent - TEX (Spencer Howard) Park - TEX
FD - 43.11 DK - 23.7
This one is pretty easy at the SP2 position on DraftKings with Ohtani sitting under $9K as a -222 home favourite tonight. The system also has him sitting atop the projections tonight and it makes sense as the floor is ridiculously high. This was on full display in his first start out of the break as the Braves got to him for six earned runs but he still managed to tally 20 DK points thanks to 11 strikeouts. It was the fifth start in a row he has tallied double-digit K's and the seventh straight start tallying 20 or more DK points(32.4 average). He now faces a Rangers team that has lost five of their last six and are much worse against right-handed pitching(92 wRC+ vs 115 against LH). All things considered, Ohtani is our top overall pitcher on DraftKings and an excellent pairing with Wheeler on this slate.
Catcher/First Base
Jared Walsh FD 2600 DK 2900
Opponent - TEX (Spencer Howard) Park - TEX
FD - 11.59 DK - 8.73
Finding value with the bats is going to be key on this slate with the pitchers I listed above combined with the fact the top three teams are all very expensive to stack. Enter Jared Walsh who has moved up the order with no Trout and it has been red-hot to start the second half with hits in five of six games with five extra-base hits. He and the Angels also get a plus matchup against Spencer Howard who enters with a 7.11 ERA/5.11 xFIP and has been crushed by lefties(46% hard contact on 56% flyballs!). Walsh is easily our top PTS/$ play at first base.
Eric Haase FD 2400 DK 4300
Opponent - TOR (Yusei Kikuchi) Park - TOR
FD - 7.82 DK - 5.87
Normally, we are looking to punt catcher in this situation but the slate really lacks that option right now so I am going to turn to Eric Haase who checks a lot of boxes for us tonight. He has been good out of the break with multi-hit efforts in two of his last three starts including his eighth home run of the season. He also gets a plus matchup against Kikuchi who has struggled almost all season while Haase has much better splits against lefties(.346 wOBA/126 wRC+). As of now, he is our top catcher for DraftKings on this slate.
Second Base
Andrés Giménez FD 3200 DK 3800
Opponent - BOS (Kutter Crawford) Park - BOS
FD - 9.62 DK - 7.46
Despite hitting down in the Guardians order for pretty much the entire season, Gimenez has been terrific and was rewarded with his first trip to the All-Star game. He has also picked up right where he left off coming out of the break with hits in five of six games with three multi-hit efforts, two doubles, and a home run. The good news with hitting in the bottom half of the lineup is that the price never really seems to go up and that is great news for tonight when we will take all the value we can get. Lock Gimenez in as a top PTS/$ option at second base.
Luis Rengifo FD 2400 DK 3500
Opponent - TEX (Spencer Howard) Park - TEX
FD - 9.33 DK - 7.18
While the Angels are a tough sell as a core team without Trout in the lineup, they make a ton of sense on this slate when we are in dire need of value bats. Enter Rengifo who, like Walsh, is getting an opportunity to hit higher in the lineup and since the move has impressed with hits in nine of 10 games. There likely isn't a ton of upside here but pairing those together allows us to easily pay up for pitching and still get multiple bats from the Dodgers, Jays, and/or Yankees. I will have exposure in all formats.
Shortstop
Trea Turner FD 3900 DK 5600
Opponent - COL (José Ureña) Park - COL
FD - 16.82 DK - 12.95
Speaking of the Dodgers, they lead all teams in implied runs tonight, and by a wide margin, as they head into Coors Field for a series with the Rockies. I am once again stumped by pricing here as the Dodgers' top three bats have been in the high $5K/low $6K range since the break but now start to drop going into the best hitters park in the league. That is not the only reason to load up on Turner tonight as he comes in scorching hot with hits in 14 straight including seven multi-hit efforts and nine extra-base hits. He checks every box and is one of, if not our top overall play on this slate.
Javier Báez FD 2600 DK 4200
Opponent - TOR (Yusei Kikuchi) Park - TOR
FD - 10.18 DK - 7.8
The Tigers are never a team I go out of my way to target and Baez is not the player he once was but does check some boxes for this slate on Thursday. It starts with the matchup against Yusei Kikuchi who has been nothing short of a disaster for the Jays(and their fans) as he enters with a 5.12 ERA/4.48 xFIP and has given up an insane 50% hard contact rate and 16% barrel rate. While Baez's performance against righties has dropped off a cliff, he still crushes lefties to the tune of a .396 wOBA/160 wRC+/.244 ISO in 2022. Put it all together and you have an excellent PTS/$ value at shortstop.
Third Base
Justin Turner FD 3100 DK 4500
Opponent - COL (José Ureña) Park - COL
FD - 13 DK - 9.81
Matt Chapman FD 3400 DK 4000
Opponent - DET (Tyler Alexander) Park - DET
FD - 11.01 DK - 8.19
These two check almost the exact same boxes tonight so I am going to just group them together here. Looking at Vegas, the Dodgers and Blue Jays sit #1/#2 in implied runs but are both very hard to stack with their high prices which leads us to some salary relief at the third base position. This does come with some risk as both hit down in the lineup but the good news is that both have been hitting well in the short term. Let's start with Turner who returned from an injury yesterday going 1 for 3 with a walk and now has hits in 15 of his last 18 games with 17 RBI. For Chapman, he is finally starting to produce like expected as he has hits in five straight and seven of his last eight games with nine RBI and eight runs scored. Turner gets the nod as he gets to take his hacks on the road in Coors but both these players are viable in all formats tonight.
Outfield
Mookie Betts FD 4200 DK 5500
Opponent - COL (José Ureña) Park - COL
FD - 17.09 DK - 12.86
Jake Lamb FD 2200 DK 2100
Opponent - COL (José Ureña) Park - COL
FD - 13.76 DK - 10.2
We are going to want to get as many Dodgers bats as possible on this slate and while they are expensive, there are multiple factors that make it much easier. First of all, as I mentioned earlier, the DraftKings algo is still drunk as the red-hot Dodger bats have seen their prices drop as they go into the best hitters park in the league. Betts is one of those hot bats as he comes in with hits in six of seven since the break with three home runs and while the average is still down overall(.268), he has been very productive for fantasy with a .376 wOBA/146 wRC+ on the season. As the fourth most expensive outfielder hitting leadoff in Coors, Betts is my top outfielder on this slate. Making the Dodgers' an even more attractive option tonight is the fact Lamb provides some much-needed value and is projected to hit in the middle of the lineup. He isn't going to make you feel warm and fuzzy if targeting consistency but he does provide some excellent opportunity on a slate we desperately need value.
Taylor Ward FD 2900 DK 4000
Opponent - TEX (Spencer Howard) Park - TEX
FD - 13.64 DK - 10.34
Back to the Trout-less Angels for another value bat, this time in the outfield. Ward is a former first-round pick(20215) that has finally showed that he is here to stay with a breakout 2022 as he comes in hitting .283 and has been even better from a production standpoint with an outstanding .373 wOBA/144 wRC+ with 13 home runs, 35 RBI, and 44 runs scored. Despite no Trout, the Angels are still a terrific tonight with their value at the 2-3-4 spots in the lineup combined with a plus matchup against Spencer Howard who sits with an ugly 7.11 ERA and has given up a very high 41% hard contact rate and 12.6% barrel rate.
