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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 7/14/22
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Pitchers
Framber Valdez FD 10300 DK 9700
Opponent - LAA (Reid Detmers) Park - LAA
FD - 35.12 DK - 18.18
You really can't go wrong at the top as we get three aces including an elite matchup between Burnes and Rodon but I am going to start Valdez. He and the Astros open as -165 favourites as they try to bounce back after a 7-1 loss to the Angels last night. I still like the matchup as the Angels' strikeout the 4th most against lefties and even with last night's 7-spot, have an ugly 59 wRC+ and 34% K rate over the last two weeks. For Valdez, he got hit hard by the Angels back in April but has been elite since posting a 2.37 ERA and has tallied 7+ strikeouts in half of his 14 starts. This is a night where I have pretty even exposure to the top three pitchers in my builds but if having to choose just one, I would go Valdez.
Nestor Cortes FD 9900 DK 8800
Opponent - CIN (Luis Castillo) Park - CIN
FD - 37.83 DK - 20.81
No situation is going to give you more anxiety coming into tonight than the Yankees pitching. Severino was a -330 favourite last night and got rocked and now Cortes is coming off his worst start of the season in Boston last Friday. The system is not concerned at all as the PTS/$ value is somewhat off the charts as we are now getting Cortes at early season prices. Outside of a few bad starts, he has been tremendous holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 11 of 16 starts and despite those mishaps, comes in with a 2.74 ERA/3.66 xFIP and has also shown upside with a 27% K rate.
Catcher/First Base
Matt Olson FD 3700 DK 4500
Opponent - WSH (Aníbal Sánchez) Park - WSH
FD - 13.87 DK - 10.33
Shocker! The Braves are the top projected offence tonight facing Anibal Sanchez making his season debut. He hasn't pitched since 2020 and hasn't been good since joining the Nats with a 4.52 ERA/5.15 xFIP while giving up 33 home runs across 41 starts. For Olson, it comes down to price for me on DraftKings as his teammates surrounding him are all in the $5K/$6K range. The average is never going to be there for Olson but the fantasy numbers rely heavily on his production which has been terrific with nine home runs and 31 RBI since the start of June. Fire up Olson in all formats.
Josh Naylor FD 3200 DK 3800
Opponent - DET (Elvin Rodriguez) Park - DET
FD - 10.32 DK - 7.92
The Guardians also get a plus matchup today against a rookie arm in Elvin Rodriguez who has struggled mightily giving up a whopping 19 hits and 18 earned runs(7 HR) over his last two starts. Naylor's surprisingly consistent start(.274 avg/.351 wOBA/130 wRC+) to 2022 has earned him a regular spot as the cleanup hitter and he has delivered with 11 home runs and 43 RBI. Cleveland will be a popular team to stack tonight and Naylor's best value comes on DraftKings in the sub $4K range.
Second Base
Marcus Semien FD 3700 DK 5200
Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - SEA
FD - 10.78 DK - 8.15
Semien has been priced all season like he is still raking for the Jays(I wish!) and the good news is that he is starting to play like that for the Rangers, as well. After a slow start to the season, he has looked much better hitting .278 since the start of June with a .368 wOBA and 143 wRC+. The biggest struggle this season has been against righties(84 wRC+) but the good news is that he has been much better against lefties with a .347 wOBA/129 wRC+ and faces Marco Gonzales who has given up 7+ hits in three of his last four starts and has struck out two or fewer in four of his last five starts. Fire up Semien in all formats as our top play at second base.
Jonathan Aranda FD 2200 DK 2000
Opponent - BOS (Kutter Crawford) Park - BOS
FD - 7.49 DK - 5.73
After a very successful start in AAA this season(.330/.403/.546 slash line), Aranda is getting a shot to show his skills at the Major League level due to some injuries. He is coming off an 0 for 4 last night but is once again projected to hit cleanup for the Rays and is still min price. If paying up for pitching and still want a couple of big bats, Aranda is a terrific PTS/$ value to tie it all together.
Shortstop
Corey Seager FD 4100 DK 5600
Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - SEA
FD - 11.38 DK - 8.64
Seager was the other big signing in the offseason and like Semien, he got off to a slow start. Rangers fans shouldn't panic, however, as he has picked it up big-time with hits in six straight and 10 of his last 11 games with six home runs and has an elite .304/.404/.630 slash line over the last month. Some may stay away due to the price and lefty/lefty matchup but that aligns perfectly as Marco Gonzales has been worse against lefties(.391 wOBA against) and Seager has been elite in the split with a .376 wOBA/149 wRC+/.290 ISO. There is more than enough value on this slate to pair Seager and Semien together and build around them comfortably in all formats.
Tommy Edman FD 2600 DK 3300
Opponent - LAD (Tyler Anderson) Park - LAD
FD - 8.88 DK - 6.95
If it's more value you are looking for, consider Tommy Edman who checks a ton of boxes here. It starts with the value price on both sites for the Cards' leadoff hitter and he also comes in with solid form with multi-hit efforts in back-to-back games and hits in three of his last four with three doubles. The matchup may not look great on paper as Tyler Anderson is having a solid season but has struggled some lately giving up three or more earned runs in four of his last six starts(4.04 ERA/4.45 xFIP). If paying up for two pitchers or have your eye on multiple big bats tonight, Edman fits the build perfectly and is in play for me in all formats.
Third Base
Yandy Díaz FD 3200 DK 4300
Opponent - BOS (Kutter Crawford) Park - BOS
FD - 8.78 DK - 6.69
First of all, I want to preface by saying that if you have the salary Austin Riley is the top play at third base tonight for a Braves team that leads the slate in implied runs. For cash games, I am going in a different direction and taking Yandy Diaz who may lack power upside but more than makes up for it with consistency. That is especially true in the short term as he comes into tonight hitting .351 with an elite .405 wOBA/174 wRC+ since the start of June. The matchup doesn't jump off the page but the combination of price, form, and opportunity have him as my top PTS/$ option at third base.
Also Consider: Eugenio Suarez(SEA) who is another nice PTS/$ value who has been crushing the last month with a .303/.395/.515 slash line since June 24 and is also a plus hitter against lefties
Outfield
George Springer FD 3900 DK 5000
Opponent - KC (Carlos Hernández) Park - KC
FD - 9.91 DK - 7.44
Teoscar Hernández FD 3200 DK 4200
Opponent - KC (Carlos Hernández) Park - KC
FD - 9 DK - 6.82
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. FD 3100 DK 3600
Opponent - KC (Carlos Hernández) Park - KC
FD - 7.52 DK - 5.76
Take your pick with the Blue Jays outfield tonight as they come in as one of the top teams in my model. That is if the Royals are starting Carlos Hernandez who is likely to get another start or two with a barrage of injuries to the rotation. That would be great news for the Jays who appear to have new life after the firing of their manager. Let's start with Springer who is the spark for the entire lineup hitting leadoff and he comes in with hits in five straight with two doubles, two home runs, and five runs scored. We have gone over Teoscar at length in previous articles on how he got injured early on but has made up for lost time recently hitting .316 with an elite .403 wOBA/163 wRC+ since the start of June. Then there is Lourdes Gurriel Jr. who has been the hottest hitter on the team recently hitting a whopping .400 over his last 20 games and has yet to see a price increase because of it. Whether you want to load right up or just want a piece of the Jays outfield, they are all in play in all formats.
Other top options include: Luis Robert/Gavin Sheets(CHW) who provide a nice PTS/$ value stacked together in a plus matchup against struggling Sonny Gray or Aledmys Diaz(HOU) as a punt play who comes in with hits in seven straight and is a plus hitter against lefties
