DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 7/12/22

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Pitchers

Gerrit Cole FD 10600 DK 10500
Opponent - CIN (Graham Ashcraft) Park - CIN
FD - 42.95 DK - 24.32

Gerrit Cole is a runaway favorite on this slate, with the Yankees coming in at -304 at home against the Reds. It’s one of the biggest money lines you will see and it’s for pretty good reason. Cole has been excellent this season, striking out more than 11 batters per nine with a 2.95 xFIP that’s actually about .3 runs lower than his ERA. The Reds rank 20th in the league in team wOBA and that’s even with playing half their games in the second-best hitter’s park in baseball. This is an easy call on Cole.

Logan Webb FD 10000 DK 9500
Opponent - ARI (Dallas Keuchel) Park - ARI
FD - 37.52 DK - 19.66

Webb is the other big win favorite on the slate with the Giants at -221 against the Diamondbacks. Arizona ranks 26th in team wOBA on the season and strike out 23% of the time. Meanwhile, Webb isn’t having quite the strikeout success he showed last season, putting batters down at only a 21% clip. But he mitigates that by keeping the ball on the ground, inducing a 56% groundball rate this season. That’s one reason the .284 BABIP against is on the lower side. While I wish he struck out more batters, it’s hard to fade the money line for sure and he doesn’t totally break the bank on DraftKings.

Catcher/First Base

Luke Voit FD 3200 DK 3400
Opponent - COL (Austin Gomber) Park - COL
FD - 13.93 DK - 10.45

The Padres are in Coors once again and they have the highest implied run total on the day. It’s for good reason. We typically want to stack Coors any chance we get and this is definitely one of those chances. They’ll face the lefty Austin Gomber and will likely be pretty popular here. Voit should hit clean up and is coming way too cheap on both sites. He’s got a high strikeout rate, but that’s much less of a concern against Gomber. And while he’s been better against righties, for his career, the splits against lefties are well about average. This is an easy call, especially on DraftKings.

Darin Ruf FD 2600 DK 2800
Opponent - ARI (Dallas Keuchel) Park - ARI
FD - 12.39 DK - 9.31

Run is an interesting case here and it’s sometimes tough to know exactly what to do with this guy. On the one hand, he’s coming very cheap on both sites and projects to hit cleanup when the Giants face the lefty Keuchel. And he’s crushed lefties for his career with a .369 wOBA and 142 wRC+. But he’s a real threat to see only three plate appearances if a righty comes out of the pen for the Diamondbacks. That would mean getting pinch-hit for, effectively killing the plate appearance expectation. I think he’s coming cheap enough to do it, but again there’s risk.

Second Base

Jake Cronenworth FD 3800 DK 3900
Opponent - COL (Austin Gomber) Park - COL
FD - 13.81 DK - 10.59

While Croneworth is on the wrong side of his split here, having been better against righties for his career, the price on DraftKings is coming too low. He’s slated to hit second in the Padres lineup and is coming under $4K while hitting in Coors. That’s too tough a spot and price to fade. And it’s not like he’s been sub-replacement against lefties. Croneworth has an OPS in the 700s in that platoon with a .318 wOBA. Nothing to write home about, but with the increased run projection, it makes him a fine play.

Wilmer Flores FD 3000 DK 3000
Opponent - ARI (Dallas Keuchel) Park - ARI
FD - 11.94 DK - 9.11

The Giants are facing off against the lefty Keuchel on Tuesday and they like to stack the lineup with righties who rake against this split. Flores is one of those guys and he’s coming too cheap on DraftKings. He has a .780 OPS on the season with 12 home runs and is very tough to strike out at just 15.7%. And for his career, he’s about 80 OPS points better against southpaws with a .220 ISO and .344 wOBA. Again, he’s coming too cheap on DraftKings all things considered.

Shortstop

Ha-Seong Kim FD 3300 DK 2900
Opponent - COL (Austin Gomber) Park - COL
FD - 13.39 DK - 10.23

Do we have a lot of Padres on the list for Tuesday? Sure. Is it for good reason? Absolutely. Kim projects to hit leadoff with San Diego facing off against the lefty and like some of his teammates, he’s coming way to cheap on DraftKings. Sitting under $3K in this spot is just a bargain any way you look at it. The OPS isn’t cracking .700, but he’s walking 10% of the time and is an extreme splits guy with a .335 wOBA and 117 wRC+ when up against southpaws. If he’s in the top spot then he should be in our DraftKings lineups.

Bobby Witt Jr. FD 3100 DK 4500
Opponent - DET (Beau Brieske) Park - DET
FD - 10.64 DK - 8.18

On DraftKings, I definitely prefer Kim if he’s hitting in the leadoff slot. But on FanDuel it’s closer with the price. Witt has picked it up over the course of the season and now has the slugging percentage at .453 thanks to 12 home runs. He needs to show more patience at the plate considering the walk rate is only 5.5% but when he does get on base it’s been off to the races. He already has 16 stolen bases on the season. This gives him a very solid fantasy floor.

Third Base

Manny Machado FD 4500 DK 5100
Opponent - COL (Austin Gomber) Park - COL
FD - 16.67 DK - 12.65

Now we’ve got the whole Padres’ infield in the mix for cash games. Machado is the guy who’s actually priced up, but considering the savings we get with his teammates, he becomes a pretty easy call. He’s having an awesome season with a .923 OPS and .392 wOBA thanks, in part, to the 15 home runs he’s hit. He’s been better against lefties for his career, striking out only 14% of the time in that split with a .216 ISO. I think he will be one of the most popular plays at the plate for the Tuesday slate of games.

I’m just not getting away from Machado here at 3B. It doesn’t make sense considering the context around the implied run line and the park. But if you want to consider other options, you can look at Eugenio Suárez (FD $3300 DK $4100) who should be hitting in the heart of the order against Gray and is coming much cheaper.

Outfield

Jesse Winker FD 2700 DK 4100
Opponent - WSH (Josiah Gray) Park - WSH
FD - 13.49 DK - 10.17

He hasn’t been able to generate the same power as in the past, which is a little concerning. The hard contact is down which explains some of it. But he is getting the ball into the air, though the Hr/FB rate is much lower than his career averages. I think there still could be some positive regression on the home run numbers as we get into the second half of the season and he’s a bargain on FanDuel right now.

Josh H. Smith FD 2600 DK 3100
Opponent - OAK (James Kaprielian) Park - OAK
FD - 12.07 DK - 9.26

Smith is projecting to hit leadoff for the Rangers who have one of the highest implied run lines outside of Coors on Tuesday. The rookie has some real things going for him here, namely the patience at the plate. He has a 15% walk rate through his first 81 major league plate appearances. The power isn’t really there, but it doesn’t need to be at these prices and for where his is hitting in the lineup. And I do expect there to be a little more speed in his game at some point as well.

Brent Rooker FD 2500 DK 2000
Opponent - COL (Austin Gomber) Park - COL
FD - 12.11 DK - 9.09

He’s slated to hit much lower in the Padres’ lineup, but he’s also coming at the absolute minimum on DraftKings. Because of that, you can take a look at him for cash games on this slate. And DK allows you to have five hitters from the same team unlike the four on FanDuel. So there’s a bit more wiggle room with who you play for the Padres.

Strongly consider Austin Slater (FD $2600 DK $3000) hitting leadoff for the Giants.

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