Cleveland Guardians' Jose Ramirez heads heads toward first, after grounding into a double play against the Colorado Rockies during the first inning of a baseball game Tuesday, June 14, 2022, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
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Opponent - PIT (Zach Thompson) Park - MIL
FD - 40.32 DK - 21.95
The early slate is loaded with pitching and it starts right at the top with Brandon Woodruff who is a part of an elite pitching staff in Milwaukee. The Brewers open as the biggest favourites(-245) on the slate in a terrific matchup against a bottom-five Pirates offence that has struck out over 27% of the time over the last two weeks. For Woodruff, he has gone 4-1 over his last five starts while allowing just five earned runs(1.73 ERA) and striking out 34% of batters he has faced. He tops my model, he tops our projections, and he is an elite play in all formats on Saturday.
Opponent - MIA (Braxton Garrett) Park - MIA
FD - 32.82 DK - 16.89
There is a path to paying up for both pitchers on DraftKings today and while Kyle Wright would be my top choice, he has lacked strikeouts lately and faces a team who just doesn't swing and miss. This has me going down the board to find some value at the SP2 position and Carrasco is coming to us at a season-low price. This after a huge bounce-back effort in his last start where he allowed just one earned run to the Rangers while striking out eight over 5.2 innings. He now faces a struggling Marlins offence that has just a .276 wOBA and 79 wRC+ over the last two weeks. I will have exposure to Carrasco in all formats on DraftKings helping me to more bats.
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 10.54 DK - 7.99
The Diamondbacks' offence has looked a whole lot better as of late as they sit with a wRC+(115) over the last two weeks that is 25% higher than their 26th ranked season number(90). Walker has played a role in that success as he is hitting .286 over the last three weeks while getting on base at an elite .440 clip which has produced a personal 178 wRC+ in that time. He has also thrived against lefty pitching with a .442 wOBA/186 wRC+ in the split on the season. All things considered, Walker is my top PTS/$ play at first base today.
Opponent - OAK (Zach Logue) Park - OAK
FD - 10.1 DK - 7.79
If you are looking to save even more salary at the position, look no further than the 2021 AL batting champ. He hasn't been nearly as good in 2022(.233) but has been better in the short-term with hits in 11 of his last 14 games(.319 avg/.373 OBP) and has been much better against lefties(.329 wOBA/118 WRC+) this season. The key here is that he comes very cheap while the Astros rank among the leaders in implied runs on this slate. Lock and load in all formats.
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 11.46 DK - 8.77
Opponent - ARI (Madison Bumgarner) Park - ARI
FD - 8.22 DK - 6.31
If you can afford his crazy price tag, Jose Altuve is easily the top play at second but instead, I am going to give you a couple of PTS/$ value options in the same game. Let's start with Marte who has been much better since his very slow start to the season and has not only hit .283 since the start of June but has been getting on base at an elite rate(.416) which has led to a very nice 147 wRC+ in that time. He is a switch-hitter that is productive from both sides but has been much better against lefties with a .364 wOBA/133 wRC+ on the season.
On the other side of the field, we have Brendan Rodgers who has also picked it up recently and has hits in 14 of his last 18 games(.300 avg) and has been getting on base at a .359 clip in that time. Like Marte, he is also much better against lefties and has posted a .420 wOBA/160 wRC+ in the split this season.
Both players are terrific plays in all formats today and preference will come down to which team you have more exposure to in your builds.
Opponent - WSH (Patrick Corbin) Park - WSH
FD - 14.21 DK - 10.85
Another day, another Swanson write-up as he leads all shortstops in projection and it makes sense as he is in the middle of a breakout season hitting .302 and is one of just nine players with 50 RBI and 50 runs scored. He also gets an above-average matchup against lefty Patrick Corbin and has crushed in the split this season with a .411 wOBA, 165 wRC+, and .232 ISO. Considering we have seen him in the $6K range on DraftKings and $4K range on FanDuel in worse matchups, Swanson is easily our top play at shortstop today.
Opponent - TEX (Martín Pérez) Park - TEX
FD - 9.69 DK - 7.34
If you can't quite get up to the top-priced plays at shortstop consider Carlos Correa who is having a very solid season overall with a .285/.357/.460 slash line. The consistency has lacked lately but he gets a plus matchup which I would not have said earlier in the season. That is because Martin Perez was looking like a Cy Young candidate early on allowing just 4.5 hits per game over his first 10 starts but nearly eight hits per game over his last six. Vegas doesn't see the Twins as a top-scoring team today so we likely get Correa at a discounted ownership as well. I will have exposure in all formats.
Opponent - KC (Jonathan Heasley) Park - KC
FD - 13.83 DK - 10.45
Opponent - WSH (Patrick Corbin) Park - WSH
FD - 12.4 DK - 9.39
The reason I am looking for a value SP2 on DraftKings and multiple value bats is the need for the big bats on the left side of the infield today. I am grouping these two together as they are in a tier of their own and you have a tough decision to make on DraftKings where you can only use one of them while I am considering a core with both of them on FanDuel.
Let's start with Riley who has been the better of the two in the short-term who not only has hits in eight of his last nine games but seven of those are multi-hit efforts and he has five doubles and three home runs in that time, as well. To top it off he has also been one of the best hitters against southpaws this season with an elite .435 wOBA, 180 wRC+, and .354 ISO.
For Ramirez, he comes in second in my rankings as he hasn't recorded a multi-hit effort in 12 straight games and has seen his average drop to .283(lol). What really jumps off the page is the matchup as he faces Jonathan Heasley who has really struggled with lefties with a 6.46 ERA and .400 wOBA against. That fits perfectly with the switch-hitting JRam who has been WAY better from the left side with a .425 wOBA and 182 wRC+ on the season.
Both these players are elite plays in all formats today and worth every penny.
Opponent - ARI (Madison Bumgarner) Park - ARI
FD - 10.79 DK - 8.14
With so many top outfielders in the $6K range, it is a huge but-low opportunity with Kris Bryant who is still in the mid $4K range on DraftKings and low $3K range on FanDuel. He missed some time with injury but has returned better than ever and comes into Saturday with hits in eight of 10 games*(.350/.395/.650 slash line) with three home runs. While I am not sold on the Rockies as a full-stack today against MadBum, I love the PTS/$ value with Bryant and will have exposure in all formats.
Opponent - TEX (Martín Pérez) Park - TEX
FD - 8.37 DK - 6.31
To get up to one or multiple top-priced, elite plays today we are going to have to find some value and it sure helps when they also check every box. That is the case with Kyle Garlick when facing a lefty as he almost always gets bumped up the lineup. That is completely based on his splits as he already has five home runs in 47 plate appearances against southpaws with a .341 average and .463 wOBA. He also faces a lefty in Martin Perez who has dropped off considerably since his hot start and his giving up over seven hits per game in his last six starts. If Garlick is back up in the 4/5 hole in the order, he is a top value for us today.
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