DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 7/8/22

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Pitchers

Lucas Giolito FD 8800 DK 7800
Opponent - DET (Tarik Skubal) Park - DET
FD - 39.55 DK - 21.45

Giolito comes in as a -174 home favorite against the Tigers on Friday and makes for one of the best cash game pitching options on the day. Though the 4.90 ERA might scare some people off, the xFIP is more than a run lower at 3.69 and he’s been bitten by some bad luck with a BABIP about 80 points higher than his career average. He’s facing a lowly Tigers team that sits near the bottom of the league in team wOBA and strikes out 24% of the time.

Tyler Anderson FD 9000 DK 9400
Opponent - CHC (Keegan Thompson) Park - CHC
FD - 38.19 DK - 19.83

Though Tyler Anderson doesn’t strike out batters at quite the rate we usually look for in cash games, he has plenty of other things going for him here. For starters, the ability to keep the ball on the ground and solid control has meant he’s been going around 6.5 innings per start this season, one of the higher rates in the league. He K’s fewer than eight batters per nine, but still has a. 4.5:1 K:BB rate because of the control. And he’s the biggest money line favorite on the day at -233 against the Cubs.

Strongly consider Chris Bassitt (FD $9800 DK $8700) against the Marlins.

Catcher/First Base

Matt Olson FD 3700 DK 4300
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 13.02 DK - 9.69

The Braves come in with the highest run line of the day (5.8) facing off against Erick Fedde and the Nationals. Olson isn’t flashing quite the same power numbers that scored him a big contract with the Braves in the offseason, but he’s still been solid with an OPS in the 800s, a good walk rate, and he’s mashed righties for his career. He has an .879 OPS and 137 wRC+ in that split. The Braves could put a hurting on Fedde today.

Anthony Rizzo FD 3700 DK 4800
Opponent - BOS (Connor Seabold) Park - BOS
FD - 12.69 DK - 9.54

While I prefer a Braves stack to really any other team, the Yankees are in a good spot here against the Red Sox and Seabold. The latter doesn’t project to be the huge K guy he’s been in a short stint in the majors and even without the strikeouts he’s struggled with the ERA. Rizzo has 22 home runs on the season with an .843 OPS. He’s always been tough to strike out and this season has even added some speed on the base paths. He has six stolen bases and could come close to his career-high of 17 all the way back in 2015.

Second Base

Ketel Marte FD 3100 DK 4300
Opponent - COL (Chad Kuhl) Park - COL
FD - 10.99 DK - 8.41

Second base is a bit on the weaker side for Friday so we might have to take what we can get at this position. Marte isn’t overwhelmingly expensive on either site and is in a good spot against Auston Gomber. For his career, Marte has been considerably better against lefties with an .877 OPS, 130 wRC+, and .369 wOBA in that split. He only strikes out 14% of the time against lefties and his ISO is much better as well. This is a good time to run him in cash against a weaker lefty arm.

DJ LeMahieu FD 3300 DK 4500
Opponent - BOS (Connor Seabold) Park - BOS
FD - 10.97 DK - 8.5

LeMahieu is coming at a value on FanDuel in the lower-$3K range and though it’s not a perfect matchup against Seabold, it is easy to like some of the Yankees in this spot. DJ has a .765 OPS on the season and is actually walking (13%) more than he’s striking out (12%). It’s something you only see from a few major league hitters at this point. He gets on base around 37% of the time and gets to hit in front of some of the best hitters in baseball as well.

Shortstop

Dansby Swanson FD 3800 DK 5300
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 12.19 DK - 9.27

Swanson should be hitting second here for the Braves on Friday and he’s become a high-floor fantasy play because of his ability to score in multiple ways. He has an .847 OPS on the season and has been able to get on base despite a higher strikeout rate. The 14 home runs have him right on last year’s pace, but he’s really picked up the stolen bases this time around. He has 14 already even though he had nine all of last year. It’s been a nice surprise for the shortstop.

Tim Anderson FD 3400 DK 5400
Opponent - DET (Tarik Skubal) Park - DET
FD - 12.17 DK - 9.49

I much prefer Swanson to the other options on Friday, though if you are looking to pivot then Tim Anderson isn’t a terrible option. He doesn’t get a great matchup against Skubal who has some good K stuff, but Anderson has shredded lefties for his career. He has an .871 OPS and 135 wRC+ in that split, both considerably better than what he does against righties.

Third Base

Austin Riley FD 4200 DK 5200
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 12.06 DK - 9.13

Austin Riley has arguably been the best Braves hitter this season. He brings in an .886 OPS and .378 wOBA with 21 home runs already. He’s on pace to best the best power marks of his short career. Yes, he strikes out quite a bit, but that’s not a concern against Fedde who’s put down batters at only a 19% rate this season and owns a 4.51 xFIP. And Riley is only slightly worse against righties for his career.

Josh Donaldson FD 2500 DK 3800
Opponent - BOS (Connor Seabold) Park - BOS
FD - 11.08 DK - 8.26

Sure, this has been something of a Yankees and Braves article, but that’s fine considering the offenses we are talking about here. Donaldson’s price is kind of a joke on FanDuel at $2500. And though he hasn’t crushed the ball, this is just too low for a guy hitting around the middle of the Pinstripe’s lineup. He has an OPS in the 700s and the HR/FB ratio is running behind his career averages despite the hard contact rate being relatively the same. That could mean a power regression coming.

Outfield

Ronald Acuña Jr. FD 4400 DK 6000
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 16.33 DK - 12.3

Eddie Rosario FD 2600 DK 3500
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 10.75 DK - 8.25

Acuna is expensive for a reason, but of all the ways to pay up on Friday, he is probably the way to go. As stated, the Braves have a run line about half a run higher than the next closest team and are facing a guy in Fedde who has really struggled this season. Acuna isn’t flashing the same power numbers he has in the past, but he does have 17 stolen bases on the season. The hard contact rate is down which is a bit of a concern, but I’m still running him here regardless.

Though he’s hitting a bit lower in the Braves’ lineup, Rosario is still coming cheap enough to consider seeing as how Atlanta is projected for so many runs. He’s been an abomination at the plate this season with an OPS that I don’t even want to write. But the .122 BABIP is like 170 points lower than his career average so there has been some bad luck in there.

Christian Yelich FD 3600 DK 5400
Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - PIT
FD - 12.32 DK - 9.31

Yelich seems unlikely to return to the MVP levels of a few years ago, but in many ways he’s still a serviceable fantasy option. The power is down, but he’s still hit safely in 13 of his last 15 games. And though the home runs aren’t there in the same quantity, he is getting it done on the base paths with 13 stolen bases. He’s still able to draw walks and doesn’t K at an alarming rate. I like the FanDuel price more than the DraftKings price.

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