DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 7/4/22

Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

Pitchers

Alek Manoah FD 11000 DK 9300
Opponent - OAK (Cole Irvin) Park - OAK
FD - 41.64 DK - 22.22

Manoah is the most expensive arm on both sites and for good reason, as he opens as a -235 favourite against the A's who rank bottom three in almost every hitting category. While he lacks the same elite ceiling as other aces, there is no arguing his value as he has allowed more than three earned runs just once entering the night with an elite 2.09 ERA and has tallied 19 or more DK points in seven of his last eight starts. All things considered, Manoah is our top pitcher and in play in all formats.

Julio Urías FD 9500 DK 8300
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 37.74 DK - 19.24

The pitch count or lack thereof for Urias(90+ pitches in just three starts) can limit his upside at times but don't mistake that for a lack of consistency. Coming into Monday's start, he has gone at least five innings in 14 straight while holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 11 of those. Urias and the Dodgers are also the biggest favourites(-286) on the slate going up against a Rockies team that is a bottom-five offence on the road. While he is best used in cash games, I will have exposure in all formats tonight.

Catcher/First Base

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD 4100 DK 5300
Opponent - OAK (Cole Irvin) Park - OAK
FD - 11.9 DK - 8.96
Alejandro Kirk FD 3400 DK 4900
Opponent - OAK (Cole Irvin) Park - OAK
FD - 7.64 DK - 5.8

When looking at implied runs tonight, the Jays are somewhat buried and sit mid-pack but are very high on my list. They also get a plus matchup vs Cole Irvin who is being hit hard by the regression we have been talking about for some time and it could get worse as he has given up a .316 wOBA and .426 SLG but the advanced stats are much worse with a .374 xwOBA and .554 xSLG. Irvin has also been much worse against right-handed batters so that's where we will begin.

Let's start with Vladdy who has snapped out of that early-season slump and is hitting .290 since the start of June with an elite .402 wOBA and 164 wRC+. The price is still in a fair spot, at least on DraftKings where his top value lies. For Kirk, he has been quite a surprise this season and one of the most consistent bats in baseball as he enters the night with a .317 average but what really stands out is his sub 10% K rate which has led to an eye-popping .408 on-base percentage. Both are terrific plays in all formats tonight.

Also Consider: Matt Olson(ATL) as the Braves are in a good spot against Dakota Hudson but he has been tough against lefties so Olson will be a GPP-only play for me tonight

Second Base

Luis Arraez FD 2900 DK 5100
Opponent - CHW (Johnny Cueto) Park - CHW
FD - 9.18 DK - 7.18

The first thing that stands out here is the glaring price differential between the sites but either way, he is a top play at the position on both. Arraez's hot start should come as no surprise as he has always been around .300 hitter but he has gotten even better in 2022 with a walk rate(11.1%) that is nearly 3% higher than his K rate(8.4%) which has helped him to an insane .344 average and .419 on-base percentage. He hits leadoff for the Twins and gets a plus matchup against Cueto who has given up three or more earned runs in six of his last seven starts. Fire up Arraez in all formats, especially on FanDuel where he is still in the sub $3K range.

Santiago Espinal FD 2300 DK 3800
Opponent - OAK (Cole Irvin) Park - OAK
FD - 8.3 DK - 6.46

There is a good chance Espinal comes low-owned once again with him back hitting down in the Jays lineup but that hasn't stopped him from providing some excellent PTS/$ value. He has heated back up with hits in six of his last eight games including five multi-hit efforts and best of all, has crushed lefties to the tune of a .430 wOBA and 184 wRC+. His best value comes on FanDuel in the low $2K range  but he is in play for me in all formats on both sites.

Shortstop

Trea Turner FD 4100 DK 5600
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 14.35 DK - 11.05

There are some big decisions to make at the loaded shortstop position tonight and we will start with Trea Turner who leads all of them in our projections. He has been solid all season and even better since the start of June with hits in 24 of 29 games(.333 average) which include seven doubles, six home runs, 17 RBI, 20 runs scored, and six stolen bases. To say he contributes in every category would be an understatement and more good news as he also crushes lefties to the tune of a .367 wOBA and 139 wRC+. The Dodgers lead all teams in implied runs and Turner is our top shortstop on both sites.

Carlos Correa FD 3400 DK 4900
Opponent - CHW (Johnny Cueto) Park - CHW
FD - 10.26 DK - 7.77

Rostering Correa has been frustrating in the short term as he has gone hitless in two straight and hasn't recorded a multi-hit game in 11 straight but he still cehcks a lot of boxes. It starts with the matchup against Cueto who has given up 3+ earned runs in six of his last seven starts including eight long balls and a 43% hard contact rate/9.2% barrel rate. That is great news for Correa who has been very good against righties this season with a .350 wOBA and 131 wRC+. The Twins are a top team I will be looking to stack in all formats and Correa will most definitely be a part of that in all formats.

Third Base

Austin Riley FD 3700 DK 5200
Opponent - STL (Dakota Hudson) Park - STL
FD - 11.06 DK - 8.37

This is our first trip to Atlanta to talk about the Braves who are second to only the Dodgers in implied runs on this slate. With Acuna and especially Swanson peaking in terms of pricing, I turn to Austin Riley as my top target and he comes in with multiple hits in four straight including two doubles and two home runs. For the season, the average(.266) is a bit lower than we would for the price but he more than makes up for it with his production entering with 20 home runs, 48 RBI, and a .370 wOBA/136 wRC+ on the season. Fire up Riley in all formats.

Justin Turner FD 2800 DK 4400
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 11.6 DK - 8.75

Not often do we get value in the middle of one of the top offences in baseball but that is where we are at with Justin Turner whose price is still suppressed after a slow start to the season. The good news here is that he has been better as of late with hits in four of his last five games including a power surge with three home runs in that time. With a plus matchup against Kyle Freeland combined with his suppressed price, especially on FanDuel, Turner is easily my top PTS/$ play at the position.

Outfield

Teoscar Hernández FD 3200 DK 4100
Opponent - OAK (Cole Irvin) Park - OAK
FD - 10.26 DK - 7.78

For the most part, the Jays are an expensive team to stack at the top of the lineup but for whatever reason Teo still comes underpriced on both sites. He got off to a slow start battling an injury but has out that in the rearview hitting .314 with a .393 wOBA/158 wRC+ since the start of June. He is a league-average hitter against right-handed pitching but an elite hitter against lefties with a .425 wOBA, 181 wRC+, and .361 ISO in the split this season. At these prices, Teo is one of my top PTS/$ outfielders on this slate.

Mookie Betts FD 3600 DK 4300
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 13.57 DK - 10.21

Teo would be alone as my top PTS/$ option if not for Mookie being massively underpriced coming back from a two-week stint on the IL. He returned to action on Sunday and looked terrific with two doubles and was back in his regular leadoff spot. Tonight, he also gets a plus matchup against Kyle Freeland who has been below-average overall with the advanced stats(.363 xwOBA, .498 xSLG) pointing to him getting worse. All things considered, I will have a ton of exposure to Betts in all formats as the price is bound to go back up any day now.

GRAB A FREE TRIAL OF OUR PROJECTION SYSTEM, AND CHECK OUT DFSR PRO!