DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday, 7/3/22

Saturday was a sensational day for yours truly. George Kirby had a monster start for me, and it has me ready to keep rolling here. This is another typical Sunday card, with all but two games in action between 1ET and 4ET. That always makes this one of the best slates of the week because we tend to have all the lineups ready in a timely manner. We have a couple of Cy Young caliber pitchers, so let's go ahead and start there!

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Pitchers

Brandon Woodruff FD - P 10000 DK - SP 9500
Opponent - PIT (José Quintana) Park - PIT
FD - 40.14 DK - 21.87

Facing Pittsburgh is one of the best matchups in DFS. The Pirates rank bottom-three in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA. That would put almost any pitcher in play against them, but Woodruff is one of the best arms in the NL. He hasn't necessarily shown that form this season, but an IL stint got him right back on track. The righty threw five one-run innings in his return, striking out 10 batters. That's the stud we've seen over the last two years, with Brandon collecting a 2.98 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 30 percent K rate since 2020. The oddsmakers also like him, making Woodruff a -170 favorite in this game, with Pittsburgh projected for just 3.5 runs.

Robbie Ray FD - P 10600 DK - SP 9300
Opponent - OAK (Frankie Montas) Park - SEA
FD - 39.17 DK - 21.28

Ray got off to an atrocious start this season, but he's recaptured the form that earned him an AL Cy Young last season. He's allowed two runs over his previous three starts, posting a 0.67 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, and 9.7 K/9 rate in that span. That's obviously the best stretch of his season, and he should keep that sparkling form against Oakland. The A's rank dead-last in OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA while scoring the second-fewest runs in baseball. That has Ray as the most favorable pitcher from an odds perspective, entering this matchup as a -160 favorite in a game with a 6.5-run total.

Lucas Giolito (FD $8500 DK $6800) has been a Cy Young candidate in the past and remains way too cheap on DraftKings at just $6,800.

Catcher/First Base

Garrett Cooper FD - 1B 2800 DK - 1B 3100
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 10.2 DK - 7.77

Cooper has been in this price range all season, and it simply makes no sense. This has been Miami's best bat, providing a .320 AVG, .386 OBP, .470 SLG, and .856 OPS this season. That's actually the guy we've seen for three years now, and it's clear people are overlooking Coop because he plays for this terrible Marlins team. We're not going to disregard him because he's being priced around a bunch of slap-hitters. Cooper is far from that, totaling a .545 OBP and 1.230 OPS over his last five games. It's not like Erick Fedde is scary, sitting with a 4.40 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.

Yuli Gurriel FD - 1B 2600 DK - 1B 3400
Opponent - LAA (José Suarez) Park - HOU
FD - 9.99 DK - 7.71

The Astros are my favorite stack of the day, and we're going to get as many of these righty bats into our lineup as we can. Yuli is one of the only ones who's a good value, and it's strange he remains so cheap batting in the heart of this dominant lineup. The price drop is mainly due to a poor start to the season, but we're talking about a hitter who had a .296 AVG, .349 OBP, .484 SLG, and .833 OPS between 2019 and 2021. We expect him to get closer to those numbers as the season progresses, especially since he has a .300 AVG, .600 SLG, and .964 OPS over his last nine games. We also love that he gets to bat from the right side against a subpar southpaw, and we'll dive into Suarez's averages later on! Not to mention, Yuli has a .880 OPS against left-handers since 2019!

Willson Contreras (FD $3800 DK $5400) has been one of the best catchers in baseball this season and is always a lock on DK with catcher eligibility.

Second Base

José Altuve FD - 2B 4100 DK - 2B 5400
Opponent - LAA (José Suarez) Park - HOU
FD - 13.18 DK - 10.05

We foreshadowed that we want to stack against Suarez, so let's start there. The lefty for the Angels has been terrible since his call-up, totaling a 1.64 WHIP this season and a 5.49 ERA and 1.50 WHIP for his career. That's over 200 innings of nightmarish pitching, and it's bad news against this righty-heavy lineup. Altuve has been crushing left-handers throughout his career, accumulating a .679 SLG and 1.024 OPS against them this year. That looks even better behind Altuve's form, generating a .438 OBP, .703 SLG, and 1.140 OPS over his last 11 games! He's also sliced up Suarez, amassing a .429 AVG and 1.100 OPS in 16 at-bats against him!

Marcus Semien FD - 2B 3400 DK - 2B 5300
Opponent - NYM (Carlos Carrasco) Park - NYM
FD - 9.26 DK - 7.01

We've had Semien in here a ton over the last two months, and we're doing something right when looking at his superb stretch. The 2021 All-Star has a .290 AVG, .524 SLG, .866 OPS, and nine steals over his last 36 games. That's the stud we saw last season, with Marcus providing 45 homers and 15 steals in what will surely be a career year. All of that makes him a good value in this price range, and we certainly don't mind that he faces a struggling pitcher. That happens to be Carlos Carrasco, who's compiled a 9.68 ERA and 1.98 WHIP over his last four starts.

Shortstop

Willy Adames FD - SS 3600 DK - SS 4800
Opponent - PIT (José Quintana) Park - PIT
FD - 10.88 DK - 8.24

It took me a long time to pick shortstops on this slate, but we're going to ride Adames in this astounding matchup. Let's start there, with Jose Quintana collecting a 4.62 ERA and 1.49 WHIP over his last six starts. We've seen him do that for five years now, and he'll surely struggle with a powerful righty like Willy. Since joining Milwaukee, Adames has been flirting with a .500 SLG and .900 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. That's not far off of his averages in general, and it looks even better since Adames has a .511 SLG over his last 22 games played. The average is not there, but this is one of the best slugging shortstops in our sport!

Wander Franco FD - SS 2800 DK - SS 4400
Opponent - TOR (Ross Stripling) Park - TOR
FD - 0.12 DK - 0.09

Wander will be one of the best shortstops in baseball, and it's strange to see him this cheap. He's definitely earned the price drop with some ugly play, but a hit in each of his last five outings is an encouraging sign. We're talking about a hitter who tallied a .332 AVG, .400 OBP, .537 SLG, and .937 OPS at the minors, and it's just a matter of time before he's close to that guy at this level. He also presents an intriguing power-speed combo, which we like against a pitcher like Stripling. The Blue Jays righty has a 4.58 ERA and 1.27 WHIP since 2020 and will surely struggle with this tricky Rays lineup.

Third Base

Alex Bregman FD - 3B 3000 DK - 3B 4900
Opponent - LAA (José Suarez) Park - HOU
FD - 12.7 DK - 9.53

This is the final piece to our Houston stack, but it might be the most critical bat. We say that because Bregman has been bludgeoning lefties throughout his career, producing a .303 AVG, .392 OBP, .543 SLG, and .943 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. That's nearly 1,000 at-bats of pure dominance, and it should continue since Alex has a .347 AVG, .450 OBP, .571 SLG, and 1.021 OPS over his last 14 games. We already talked about how Suarez has a career WHIP above 1.50, which surely won't go over well against one of the best on-base guys in baseball.

Patrick Wisdom FD - 3B 3000 DK - 3B 4500
Opponent - BOS (Undecided) Park - CHC
FD - 9.65 DK - 7.2

I've loved using Widsom all season, and I don't understand why these DFS sites have kept his price so affordable. This guy has been mashing baseballs, accruing a .497 SLG and .808 OPS since the start of last season. His strikeouts have killed his AVG and OBP, but it really doesn't matter when you hit with that sort of power. All we need is one extra-base hit in DFS and that seems likely with Patty posting a .318 AVG, .388 OBP, .636 SLG, and 1.024 OPS over his last 11 games played. Getting to face Connor Seabold is the icing on the cake, though, slinging a 13.50 ERA and 2.14 WHIP in limited time this season.

Outfield

Giancarlo Stanton FD - OF 3800 DK - OF 5200
Opponent - CLE (Triston McKenzie) Park - CLE
FD - 11.25 DK - 8.41

We have two players going in opposite directions here, making Stanton one of the best plays on the board. Let's start with his opposition, with Triston McKenzie allowing 17 hits, 13 runs, and five dingers over his last two starts. He simply can't keep the ball out of the outfield stands, and that's bad news against the best power hitter in baseball. Giancarlo always leads the sport in every hard-hit metric, entering this matchup with a home run in six of his last nine games. This former MVP has gone on runs like that before, making him tough to fade for DFS purposes.

J.D. Martinez FD - OF 3500 DK - OF 5100
Opponent - CHC (Keegan Thompson) Park - CHC
FD - 10.11 DK - 7.65

Martinez has struggled over the last week, but this guy is having too good of a season to remain this cheap. The perennial All-Star candidate has a .307 AVG, .377 OBP, .487 SLG, and .864 OPS. That's the guy we've seen for nearly a decade now, meaning he's about $500 too cheap on each site. Keegan Thompson has had a solid season in Chicago, but negative regression is headed his way. We say that because his career xFIP is a run above his ERA, and it'll be tough for him to navigate through this raging Red Sox lineup in a park like Wrigley Field. He's actually faced two AL East teams this season, allowing 12 runs across 3,2 innings.

Andrew McCutchen FD - OF 3200 DK - OF 3500
Opponent - PIT (José Quintana) Park - PIT
FD - 10.52 DK - 7.88

Cutch is my favorite per-dollar play on the board. This guy is far from the MVP candidate we saw in Pittsburgh, but he's recaptured some of that form over the last month. In fact, Andrew has a .363 AVG, .448 OBP, .560 SLG, and 1.008 OPS over his last 24 games played. That alone would make him intriguing, but his splits are even more unbelievable. Cutch has compiled a .381 OBP, .564 SLG, and .945 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor since 2020. We already talked about how Quintana is laboring right now, and it's a lovely bonus with Cutch dropping a .368 AVG, .429 OBP, .579 SLG, and 1.008 OPS in 21 at-bats against the struggling southpaw.