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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 7/2/22 - Afternoon and Evening Slate
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Pitchers
George Kirby FD 8500 DK 7800
Opponent - OAK (Paul Blackburn) Park - OAK
FD - 36.62 DK - 19.48
Kirby has had an excellent first season in the majors, registering a 3.68 xFIP while striking out 8.32 batters per nine. He’s been able to limit the walks to right around a free pass per nine innings and has gone six innings in four of his last six starts. On Saturday he’ll face the A’s who have the league’s worst team wOBA and strike out 23% of the time. Kirby is a -184 favorite in this one and could be a popular play on the afternoon slate of games.
Aaron Ashby FD 6800 DK 7500
Opponent - PIT (Bryse Wilson) Park - PIT
FD - 30.54 DK - 16.37
There are some aces going on Saturday, but I think we can go a little cheaper on the mound if we play our cards right. Ashby is an interesting case in that he’s coming pretty cheap here and has gone from a long reliever to a full-time starter over the last five starts. He’s been going about five-inning per start in that stretch On Saturday, he’s going against the Pirates who are the third-worst offense in the league and strike out a whopping 25% of the time. Ashby is a -188 road favorite in this matchup and is coming so very cheap on both sites.
Consider Tyler Anderson (FD $8800 DK $9000) for the evening.
Dylan Cease (FD $10700 DK $9500)
is another interesting option, especially on DraftKings.
Catcher/First Base
J.T. Realmuto FD 3200 DK 4600
Opponent - STL (Matthew Liberatore) Park - STL
FD - 11.06 DK - 8.43
Rhys Hoskins FD 3300 DK 4200
Opponent - STL (Matthew Liberatore) Park - STL
FD - 12.84 DK - 9.53
The Phillies are coming in with a 5.4 implied run line against Matthew Libartore on Saturday and could be one of the more popular stacks on DraftKings for the afternoon. Realmuto should hit cleanup against the lefty though he’s struggled this season with the OPS sitting under .700 on the year. He’s been mostly platoon neutral for his career so you aren’t getting an overwhelming advantage in the lefty versus righty matchup, but I still like the price on him for both sites even with the struggles.
Meanwhile, Hoskins has put together a strong season with 16 home runs and an .837 OPS. He’s walking 12% of the time and has crushed lefty pitching over his career with a .924 OPS, .391 wOBA, and 144 wRC+. He’s a great price on both sites and makes for a solid cash game play.
C.J. Cron FD 4400 DK 5000
Opponent - ARI (Dallas Keuchel) Park - ARI
FD - 19.19 DK - 14.42
Cron could mash in this spot on Saturday. He’s facing off against a no-K lefty in Coors with the Rockies coming in at 6.6 implied runs, one of the highest numbers you will ever see. Sure, you are paying a lot for him but this is the exact situation to break the bank on a hitter who has lit up Coors this season and take lefties.
Second Base
Ketel Marte FD 3200 DK 5300
Opponent - COL (Austin Gomber) Park - COL
FD - 13.62 DK - 10.43
For the evening slate, we are going to want to have as much of Coors as possible. The Diamondbacks ended up scoring nine runs there on Friday and have a 5.6 implied run line on Saturday against Gomber. Marte has been fine enough this season with a mid-700s OPS even though he’s not set to return to the power numbers from 2019. Regardless, the price on FanDuel is a bit of a joke considering the situation. But it does become closer on DraftKings where you will need to spend up.
Luis Urías FD 3000 DK 2800
Opponent - PIT (Bryse Wilson) Park - PIT
FD - 11.29 DK - 8.55
The Brewers put up a whopping 19 runs on Friday and while that output doesn’t really effect the decision-making for today at all, it’s at least nice to see. They have a 5.6 implied run line for Saturday against Bryse Wilson who brings in a 4.71 xFIP and only strikes out about 6.5 batters per nine for his career. Urias is coming very cheap on DraftKings where I think we can play him in cash despite hitting around sixth in the Milwaukee lineup. He’s got an OPS over .700 and does have nine home runs on the season.
Shortstop
Willy Adames FD 3500 DK 5000
Opponent - PIT (Bryse Wilson) Park - PIT
FD - 13.13 DK - 9.94
Adames should be in the second spot in the Brewers’ lineup on Saturday and could be a popular play on both sites. Though he’s expensive on DraftKings and trending that way on FanDuel, the output has been such that he does give you plenty of upside. He has 16 home runs on the season with a .763 OPS though a lot of that comes on the slugging side. Adames doesn’t get on base a ton, striking out 27% of the time and walking only 8%. But he’s also running about 100 points low on his BABIP compared to his career average, so there is room for growth in both the OBP and SLG. He’s easily the best shortstop play for the money on Saturday and could be popular for the afternoon run of games.
I prefer Adames to all other options. But you can consider Corey Seager (FD $3200 DK $5800) against Trevor Williams.
On DraftKings, Tommy Edman (FD $3700 DK $4600) is an interesting option hitting leadoff against Kyle Gibson.
Third Base
Ryan McMahon FD 3200 DK 3100
Opponent - ARI (Dallas Keuchel) Park - ARI
FD - 12.85 DK - 9.72
McMahon is facing the lefty Keuchel on Saturday, but I’m not sweating the lefty-lefty matchup all that much. For his career, he’s been mostly a platoon neutral hitter with mid-.700s OPS numbers against both hands. With the Rockies having the highest implied run line on the slate, I think you can grab some hitters lower in the lineup for them, especially if they are coming this cheap. He’s a total bargain on DraftKings and the middle-tier price on FanDuel works as well.
Jonathan Schoop FD 2300 DK 2700
Opponent - KC (Brady Singer) Park - KC
FD - 9.24 DK - 7.09
Jeimer Candelario FD 2200 DK 2000
Opponent - KC (Brady Singer) Park - KC
FD - 9.67 DK - 7.33
Bottom of the order Tigers’ hitters? Doesn’t seem like the way you’d want to go, but on DraftKings, the position is pretty thin and these guys are coming free. Detroit, for their part, has an implied run line in the high 4’s, making for the situation to be at least palatable. And if you are rocking around the minimums then I think it’s okay to just punt here and move on.
Outfield
Connor Joe FD 3700 DK 3800
Opponent - ARI (Dallas Keuchel) Park - ARI
FD - 14.56 DK - 11
Kris Bryant FD 3400 DK 4100
Opponent - ARI (Dallas Keuchel) Park - ARI
FD - 16.13 DK - 12.17
Joe should be hitting leadoff for a team that has a 6.6 implied run line and he’s coming at a joke of a price on DraftKings especially. For the evening, he should be one of the most popular plays on the slate. He doesn’t have tremendous power, but he’s been much better against lefties for his career with an .837 OPS, 366 wOBA, and 120 wRC+. It all works here and we are going to want as many Rockies as possible.
Meanwhile, Kris Bryant is back in the fold here and should be hitting third against the lefty. This would typically be a dream spot but Bryant doesn’t have a home run in his first 90 plate appearances this season. That’s why the price is sitting on the lower side. But this is a guy with a .963 OPS for his career against lefties with a 153 wRC+ and .404 wOBA. I think we have to run him here.
Christian Yelich FD 3400 DK 4500
Opponent - PIT (Bryse Wilson) Park - PIT
FD - 13.55 DK - 10.25
Yelich should be hitting leadoff for the Brewers on Saturday and though his previous MVP numbers don’t look like they are coming back through that door, there is still some value here. He has an OPS in the 700s with seven home runs, and has been able to pick up some stolen bases with 12 swipes already this season. While he doesn’t have the power any more there is still some value.
Nick Castellanos FD 2800 DK 3700
Opponent - STL (Matthew Liberatore) Park - STL
FD - 12.4 DK - 9.41
Castellanos is another one who’s struggled this season which has led to prices on the lower side of things. I still think we are getting value on him considering the spot the Phillies are in against Liberatore and what Castellanos has done against lefties for his career. He has an .882 OPS and 133 wRC+ in that split, and I think we are just getting him too cheap if he’s going to be hitting third in the lineup.
