Milwaukee Brewers' Corbin Burnes throws to first after fielding a ground ball during the first inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres Tuesday, May 25, 2021, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Aaron Gash)
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Opponent - PIT (Roansy Contreras) Park - PIT
FD - 42.36 DK - 24.16
Corbin Burnes and Gerrit Cole have seemed to always pitch on the same day this season and that’s often led us to decide between them on a given slate. Luckily, they’ve both been excellent and today is something of another close call. Burnes faces off against the Pirates who rank 28th in the league in team offense and strikeout 25.2% of the time, second most in baseball. Meanwhile, Burnes has been an ace’s ace once again, striking out 11.5 batters per nine and rocking a 2.78 xFIP with a 2.41 ERA. He’s a -204 favorite and the Pirates have the lowest implied run line of the main slate.
Opponent - TEX (Glenn Otto) Park - TEX
FD - 38.65 DK - 21.27
While Cole is a perfectly reasonable, and pretty much excellent second choice here, you can sake $1K on DraftKings by moving down to Bassitt against the Rangers. The Mets are -200 home favorites against Texas who rank in the bottom-third in team wOBA this season. Bassitt, for his part, is striking out close to 9.5 batters per nine on the season with a 3.56 xFIP. He isn’t in the elite class of arms, but he’s not too far behind. And like I said, getting that little bit of savings compared to Cole can help roster another quality bat or two.
And, of course, Gerrit Cole (FD $10600 DK $10800) is an excellent option on this slate.
Opponent - ARI (Merrill Kelly) Park - ARI
FD - 16.92 DK - 12.72
With an 11.5 implied run line, this game has easily the most projected scoring of the day and it isn’t all that close. It is a full two runs more than the second-closest game. That’s going to mean a lot of exposure to Coors as long as we can fit the salaries. Cron is putting together an excellent season with an .882 OPS and 17 home runs. He’s been particularly good at Coors where he has a 1.067 OPS this season and 13 of his home runs have come there. He’s expensive, but this is a great spot against Kelly.
Opponent - OAK (James Kaprielian) Park - OAK
FD - 11.3 DK - 8.49
If you want to go a little cheaper then Santana isn’t the worst option mostly because he’s got a decent-ish floor based on the patience and should hit high enough in the Mariners’ lineup. Since coming over in the trade, it looks like he is going to hit cleanup here, and this is a guy who is still walking (17%) more than he’s striking out (14%). Sure, the power is down, but he’s still getting on base about 35% of the time. There’s value in that skillset.
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 13.91 DK - 10.65
Marte is looking close to a lock on FanDuel where he’s, for some reason, coming under $3K on a slate where he’s hitting in Coors. It doesn’t look like he’s ever returning to the 30+ home run season of 2019, but he still has a high .700s OPS on the season, walks 11% of the time, is tough to strikeout and gets on base at a decent clip. It’s a bit closer on DraftKings where the price is steep, but he’s a play there as well because of the ballpark and run line.
Opponent - BAL (Spenser Watkins) Park - BAL
FD - 12.52 DK - 9.57
I think Marte is a significantly better option on FanDuel because of the price, but if you are looking to save some on DraftKings then Polanco could fit the bill where he’s coming under $4K. He’s facing off against Watkins who has failed to generate much of any K’s at the major league level. And while Polanco’s K’s are up some this season, it’s not a concern in this matchup. He has 41 home runs over the last season-plus though this season is sporting an OPS in the low 700s. It’s still such a good spot and he’s a bargain on DK.
Opponent - BAL (Spenser Watkins) Park - BAL
FD - 11.8 DK - 8.94
While it’s not quite at Coors levels, the Twins are coming in with another very high implied run line, sitting at 5.4 currently against Watkins. As stated, the righty is one of the worst everyday pitchers in the league right now with a 5.80 xFIP in his 35 innings and not a lot of hope of getting better. Correa has been solid in his first season with the Twins, sporting a .845 OPS with nine home runs. He isn’t crazy expensive on either site either and does give you a chance for upside considering the Twins matchup.
After Correa, the pickings are pretty thin at shortstop. On FanDuel, I don’t mind going Francisco Lindor (FD $3800 DK $5200) for just a few hundred more on both sites. It’s a bit of an overpay for sure, but he’s in a good spot against the Rangers.
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 13.39 DK - 10.26
Rojas should be in the leadoff slot for the Diamondbacks on Friday which, considering the park and the run line, is about as good a place as you can be. He’s a joke of a price on FanDuel coming at $2700 and as long as he’s at the top of the order he should be one of the most popular plays on the slate. The OPS is nothing to write home about but passing up this ballpark and this run line at these prices just isn’t something you are going to want to do. He’s probably more like a true mid-700s hitter and the price is a mistake.
Opponent - ARI (Merrill Kelly) Park - ARI
FD - 11.76 DK - 8.9
He’s slated to hit a little lower in the Rockies’ lineup which definitely does ding him some in terms of plate appearance expectation. But Colorado has a higher implied run line than Arizona so that makes up for it some. And he’s coming significantly cheaper than Rojas on DraftKings. The dude has struggled some this season with an OPS barely scraping over .700 but there is power in the bat, and like his teammates (and really everyone) he’s much better when hitting at Coors.
Opponent - ARI (Merrill Kelly) Park - ARI
FD - 12.93 DK - 9.77
Opponent - ARI (Merrill Kelly) Park - ARI
FD - 14.36 DK - 10.83
Connor Joe should be hitting leadoff for the Rockies in this matchup and he’s been solid at home this season with a .824 OPS even though more of his home runs have come on the road. That’s got to be an outlier and I think we are getting him at fair prices on both sites. For his career he’s been better against lefty pitching, but the splits against righties aren’t all that far behind. Hitting in the top spot for the Rockies has huge advantages especially with the team run line pushing up against 6.0.
Meanwhile, Bryant has dealt with injuries this season and has fewer than 100 plate appearances so far. And with that he’s yet to hit a home run. Let’s see if things turn around today. His hard contact rate is down but the sample size is still pretty small all things considered. I think we are getting him at value prices based on the struggles this season, but if he’s hitting in the cleanup spot then I think we have to roll with him.
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 12.5 DK - 9.69
Thomas projects to hit second in the Diamondbacks’ lineup and if that’s going to be the case then he’s coming way too cheap on both sites. He’s been solid enough this season with an OPS in the .700s while hitting six home runs and stealing four bases through 173 plate appearances. He’s tough to strike out all things considered and, again, the prices are just too low for where he could hit in the order.
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