Boston Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts (2) during a baseball game at Fenway Park, Tuesday, May 4, 2021, in Boston. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)
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Opponent - CHW (Dylan Cease) Park - CHW
FD - 38.67 DK - 20.96
Gausman is having one of the best pitching seasons in all of the majors this time around, striking out almost 10 batters per nine with a better than 7:1 K:BB ratio. His 2.83 xFIP is nearly half a run better than the 3.21 ERA as well. The White Sox rank in the bottom-third of the league in team wOBA and they strike out more than 20% of the time. The Blue Jays aren’t overwhelming road favorites here (-136) but I just think Gausman comes in as such a safe option.
Opponent - TB (Undecided) Park - TB
FD - 35.71 DK - 19.93
There’s no early line on this game while Tampa still decides on its starting pitching, but there’s a lot to like with Cortes regardless. He has similar peripherals to Gausman in terms of the K’s and walks, and on Tuesday gets to pitch in one of the elite pitcher’s parks. Plus, the Rays ranks 27th overall in team offense this season (4th to last for those counting) and they strikeout more than 23% of the time. The Yankees will definitely be favorites here and the only real concern for Cortes is the price.
Strongly consider Sean Manaea (FD $9900 DK $9000) at home against the Diamondbacks.
Opponent - OAK (James Kaprielian) Park - OAK
FD - 13.83 DK - 10.55
We don’t often recommend a ton of Mariners, but Ty France is a guy we’ve been consistently on this season and it’s paid off. He has an .868 OPS with 10 home runs and he puts the ball in play around 80% of the time. France is very difficult to strike out (13%) and for his career has been as platoon neutral as it gets so we aren’t worried about righty or lefty splits. The Mariners 4.7 implied run line isn’t the highest of the day, but it’s solid and you don’t have to break the bank for France’s production.
Opponent - CHC (Matt Swarmer) Park - CHC
FD - 11.6 DK - 8.62
Our optimizer was very much on the Pirates as a stack on Monday and that paid off with the team putting up a whopping 12 runs on the Cubs. They are ringing in with a solid 5.1 implied run line in this one against Swarmer and are in a good spot once again. Vogelbach should he in the cleanup spot against the righty Swarmer and is an extreme platoon guy for his career. He has an .803 OPS in this split with a .219 ISO, light years ahead of what he does against lefties. But that keeps his price down and he is a great buy-low option for cash.
Opponent - KC (Jonathan Heasley) Park - KC
FD - 8.91 DK - 6.86
With the Angels dealing with injuries and Anthony Rendon now out of the season, Rengifo has moved up to the fifth spot in the lineup. That kind of plate appearance expectation bump works out well for a guy coming pretty much at the minimums on both sites. Is he a great hitter? No. Is he even that good of a hitter? Not really. But hitting in this spot in the lineup has its advantages and if we are looking to punt a position then second base might be the one. There aren’t a ton of solid options on this slate at all.
Opponent - OAK (James Kaprielian) Park - OAK
FD - 8.48 DK - 6.6
Look, these guys aren’t world beaters but like I said, I want to get out of the position as cheaply as possible and call it a day. Frazier should be hitting around sixth in the lineup and does make a lot of contact, putting the ball in play around 80% of the time this season. He’s running a little bad on his BABIP, about 50 points low and is coming near the minimum on FanDuel.
Opponent - DET (Beau Brieske) Park - DET
FD - 12.09 DK - 9.19
If we can fit their salaries then it could pay to have some Red Sox in the lineup on Tuesday. They are facing off against Beau Brieske who strikes out only about six batters per nine and has a 4.63 xFIP. The Red Sox have a 5.7 implied run line for a reason. Bogaerts hasn’t been able to muster quite the power numbers we would have suspected, but he’s still got an .882 OPS on the season thanks in some part to running hot on BABIP. But that isn’t the whole story and he’s still one of the better offensive shortstops in the game.
Opponent - BOS (Rich Hill) Park - BOS
FD - 10.46 DK - 8.01
If you want to take the risk and pivot off of Bogaerts for someone cheaper then I guess we can keep dreaming on Baez. He’s really struggling this season though has hit safely in each of his last five games. And for his career, he’s been elite against lefty pitching with an .882 OPS, 130 wRC+, and .368 wOBA in that split. That’s a career number, and things have been worse in the short-term, though the struggles are built into the price.
Opponent - DET (Beau Brieske) Park - DET
FD - 13.99 DK - 10.57
Like we said with Bogaerts, the Red Sox are in a good spot and getting some guys at the top of their lineup, if you can fit them, could go a long way on this slate. Devers might be the best of the bunch with a .988 OPS this season, one of the tops in the majors. He has 16 home runs and only strikes out about 17% of the time, making Brieske’s low K output a perfect matchup. He could really do some damage here and is a near-lock to have the ball in play multiple times.
Opponent - CHC (Matt Swarmer) Park - CHC
FD - 11.33 DK - 8.74
Hayes is barely keeping the OPS over .700 right now, but he is going to hit leadoff for the Pirates and does have fantasy upside in this matchup. He’s walking 10% of the time and has some speed if he gets on the base paths as well. The power isn’t really materializing, but it’s good to have a table-setter at these prices in a positive matchup against Swarmer.
Opponent - DET (Beau Brieske) Park - DET
FD - 11.65 DK - 8.98
Duran has taken over leadoff duties for the Red Sox though is still coming pretty cheap on both sites considering where he’s hitting in the lineup. He’s off to a scorching start with an OPS better than 900 through his first 30 plate appearances. It’s a crazy small sample size of course, but there is pedigree here for Duran who has flashed both power and speed at the minor league levels. These prices are almost too good to pass up for Tuesday’s slate and I don’t think he’s going to stay in this salary tier for long.
Opponent - CHC (Matt Swarmer) Park - CHC
FD - 12.97 DK - 9.87
Again, we could be on something of a Pirates stack here on Tuesday and Reynolds would fit right in. Like many of his teammates, he’s coming on the cheaper side all things considered and should hit second in the lineup for the Buckos. He’s coming off a .900+ OPS season and though he hasn’t reached quite the same heights this year, still has 10 home runs and an OPS in the .700s. I like the price on both sites, but especially FanDuel.
Opponent - KC (Jonathan Heasley) Park - KC
FD - 12.97 DK - 9.84
Ward is still coming way too cheap on both sites. This is a guy who has a .984 OPS thanks to a 14% walk rate, and 11 home runs in his 192 plate appearances. There’s been some luck involved here, but not tons and he is looking like an excellent play on both sites. Plus, hitting leadoff in front of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani certainly has its advantages.
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