Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler winds up during the second inning of a baseball game against the New York Mets, Sunday, June 27, 2021, in New York. Wheeler threw seven scoreless innings against his former team, the New York Mets, to help give the Phillies a 4-2 victory over the Mets. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
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Opponent - WSH (Patrick Corbin) Park - WSH
FD - 34.17 DK - 18.44
Smaller slate tonight but we still get some solid pitching options and it starts with the Phillies ace who is at his lowest price in nearly a month. Since being rocked for a combined 11 earned runs in back-to-back starts in late April, Wheeler has been one of the top pitchers in baseball with a .95 wHIP, 1.42 ERA, 2.44 xFIP, and elite 33% K rate while averaging 27.1 DK/47.3 FD points per game. He now faces a bottom-five offence in the Nationals and while they don't strike out much overall, they do strike out nearly 3% more against right-handed pitching. All things considered, he is my top pitcher in all formats on the main slate.
Opponent - DET (Beau Brieske) Park - DET
FD - 30.89 DK - 15.46
Up until his latest start on the road against the White Six, Martin Perez was one of the surprise stories on the season. Despite being roughed up for four earned runs he still enters the night with a sparkling 2.18 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 3.33 K/BB ratio. While the upside is somewhat limited, it is tough to pass on that consistency in this plus matchup against a Tigers team that ranks dead last in runs scored, wOBA, wRC+, and is Top 5 in K rate. It is close between Severino and Perez at SP2 on DraftKings tonight but I lean the latter slightly due to the matchup and small discount. Lock and load in all formats.
Also Consider: George Kirby(SEA) as a value SP2 on DraftKings facing a struggling Angels team that has an ugly .270 wOBA, 75 wRC+, and 30% K rate over the past two weeks
Opponent - WSH (Patrick Corbin) Park - WSH
FD - 13.69 DK - 10.16
These are the kind of slates that require our full attention leading into lock as our top team to target plays in the game with the biggest risk of rain. At this time, I am not as concerned so will be treating it like it will play and that is great news as the Phillies are once again in a terrific spot against struggling veteran southpaw Patrick Corbin. Whenever facing a lefty, Hoskins name stands out as he has crushed in the split with a .437 wOBA, 181 wRC+ and .359 ISO! He also comes in red-hot with hits in eight of his last nine games including six multi-hit efforts and nine extra-base hits. Stay tuned to chat for a weather update later in the day but as of now, Hoskins is my top play at first and one of my top overall plays on the slate.
Opponent - NYM (Tylor Megill) Park - NYM
FD - 8.45 DK - 6.38
If you fall into the category of risk-averse you maybe just want to continue on to second base as Rowdy Tellez is anything but consistent or a safe play. With that said, there is a lot that lines up here and it starts with the very low price on both sites combined with some huge power upside. What had me gravitate fully to this play is the fact Megill has struggled recently giving up 17 hits and 13 earned runs over his last three starts and has sizeable splits against lefties giving up a .349 wOBA(.230 to RH) with a 4.46 xFIP(1.88 against RH). He isn't a priority in cash games but makes for an upside bat at a low price and projected ownership for GPP formats.
Opponent - DET (Beau Brieske) Park - DET
FD - 11.64 DK - 8.8
After signing a massive free-agent contract in the offseason, Semien has struggled with his new team hitting just .224 on the season but Rangers are in a great spot on this small slate and a top team to target. They face a rookie in Beau Brieske who has struggled overall with a 4.34 ERA/4.83 xFIP but it's the splits that stand out as he has really struggled against righties giving up a .383 wOBA and .557 slugging %. Enter Semien who has actually been better against righties with a .352 wOBA/124 wRC+/.241 ISO since the start of last season. Considering the mid-tier price on both sites, Semien is my top play at second tonight.
Opponent - TB (Jalen Beeks) Park - TB
FD - 10.3 DK - 7.98
The Rangers are in a much better spot here so Semien is likely the chalk play but it will be hard to ignore any Yankees' bat right now as they are the best team and offence in baseball. While LeMahieu is not his usual consistent self to start the year, he still provides us a ton of opportunity hitting leadoff in front of Judge, Rizzo, and Stanton. Most of the struggles have also come against righties and will face a lefty to start the game tonight and has a terrific .413 wOBA/176 wRC+ in the split. I think Semien is the easy choice on DraftKings but on FanDuel it comes down to which team you are wanting more exposure to tonight.
Opponent - DET (Beau Brieske) Park - DET
FD - 12.54 DK - 9.52
Much of the Ranger's struggles this season come down to the two free agents they paid massive amounts of money for but have yet to really produce. It is actually pretty crazy how similar Seager's numbers are to Semien's as he also enters the night hitting .224 but has been slightly more productive for fantasy with 13 home runs and 29 RBI and also comes in on a bit of a roll with hits in five of his last six games with a double and two home runs. All things considered, he is a top target at shortstop on both sites.
Opponent - TB (Jalen Beeks) Park - TB
FD - 8.75 DK - 6.7
It was a slow start to the season for Torres but what we like to see is that he has progressively gotten better. The average is still not where we would like it but the production has seen a big boost as he has posted a .353 wOBA and 134 wRC+ with 10 home runs and 19 RBI since the start of May. While it is an opener situation and bullpen day for the Rays, they are starting with a lefty and that helps Torres who has an elite .409 wOBA, 173 wRC+ , and .417 ISO in the split this season. He is in play in all formats with his best value on FanDuel in the sub $3K range.
Opponent - WSH (Patrick Corbin) Park - WSH
FD - 8.65 DK - 6.65
Opponent - NYM (Tylor Megill) Park - NYM
FD - 5.3 DK - 4.03
The third base position is pretty ugly on this main slate tonight so I am most likely punting the spot so I grouped my two favourites together here. Neither provides a lot of upside hitting down in the order but both check enough boxes to be in our player pools tonight. Let's start with Bohm who is a much better hitter against lefties(.340 wOBA/117 wRC+) and the Phillies get the best matchup on the board against Patrick Corbin. What I like about Peterson is similar to what I mentioned about Rowdy above and it comes down to splits. Tylor Megill has struggled in recent starts but more importantly, has really struggled against lefties. I will have fairly split exposure between these two at third base tonight and will spend up elsewhere.
Opponent - WSH (Patrick Corbin) Park - WSH
FD - 13.22 DK - 10.04
Back to the Phillies and I mentioned the possibility of rain but for now we are locked in on one of the hottest offences in baseball that has scored over six runs a game while going 11-2 over their last 13 games. Castellanos may not be duplicating his tremendous 2021 season but most of those struggles have come against righties as he comes in with a .323 average against lefties with a 124 wRC+. More than that, the price is in a great spot on both sites making him a top outfield play in all formats.
Opponent - DET (Beau Brieske) Park - DET
FD - 11.26 DK - 8.58
If you had told me that after signing Seager and Semien to huge contracts, that neither would be the top hitter on the team after two months I would have called you a liar but here we are. With both of those players struggling, Garcia has helped pick up the slack leading the team in RBI(41), runs scored(35), and slugging %(.458) and also enters the night with a seven-game hit streak that includes five multi-hit efforts. Combine all that with Brieske's reverse splits and struggles aginst righties and we have a top PTS/$ play in the outfield.
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