(AP Photo/Steve Helber)
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The Country Club
Par 70 - 7,264 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass/Poa Mix
**Click the image above to see a hole-by-hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
The professional golf world has been a scorching hot topic recently with the LIV Golf Tour playing their first event last week meanwhile Rory McIlroy was taking home the hardware up in Canada. He put together one of his best all-around performances of the season gaining at least 3.5 strokes in every area and shooting sub 70 in all four rounds highlighted by final-round 62! He needed all of it, beating out a stacked Sunday leaderboard that included Finau, JT, Rose, Burns, and Canadian Corey Conners to name a few.
The best golfers in the world, yes even the LIV Golf guys, will now take on one of the toughest tests in golf, The U.S. Open. This year's venue is a bit different from the traditional lengthy U.S. Open stops in the rotation as the players head to The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts. The course is a Par 70 that stretches just over 7,200 yards on the scorecard but does have multiple sets of tees to not only change the distance but also the angle at which the players will attack the holes. While the length may not match other venues, the difficulty should with narrow fairways lined with trees, tons of bunkering key landing areas, and hazards. There are also quite a few holes with winding fairways and put it all together and total driving will be at high demand, with accuracy a bit more important than distance. After the demanding tee shot on most of the holes, golfers then face very small, bentgrass greens with lots of slope(mostly back to front) and the run-offs will leave either long chip shot recoveries or sand saves from some difficult bunkers.
One thing that will challenge the golfers from tee to green is the constant changing of elevation which makes distance control huge. Adding to that is the weather which appears to be windy for the first couple of days.
Overall, with an absolutely loaded field the key is to narrow down your player pool to match the number of entries and unfortunately, that means leaving out some golfers in your player pool. I personally have a checklist with all the factors I am looking at(major history, US Open history, form, stats, etc) and then narrow my player pool by those who check the most boxes. This week the top factors/stats in my model are:
With all that said, let's take a look at a few of my top plays in each price range.
Scottie Scheffler
World Golf Ranking (#1)
Vegas Odds (14/1)
Draftkings ($11,300)
FanDuel ($12,000)
The field is obviously loaded with players at the top who can and most likely will contend this week so it's about who checks the most boxes. Up first for me is Scottie Scheffler who is the most expensive golfer on both sites and that alone has me thinking he is easily outside the Top 5 and even possibly outside the Top 10 in ownership which is some nice leverage right off the bat. Then we dig into the player and we see a nice bounce-back effort after a missed cut at the PGA as Scheffler picked up a T2 at the Charles Schwab the next week and a T18 last week in Canada. During those two events, he also gained a whopping 20.6 strokes tee to green so his game is in great all-around form. All things considered, I will once again have a heavy dose of Scheffler on both sites this week.
Xander Schauffele
World Golf Ranking (#12)
Vegas Odds (22/1)
Draftkings ($9,600)
FanDuel ($11,100)
If we are talking players who check all the boxes, Xander Schauffele jumps off the page, especially on DraftKings in the mid $9K range which will likely make him a top 5 most popular play. It makes sense as he returns to the U.S. Open with finishes of 7th or better in all five appearances going back to 2017. Then we look at consistency and see he is one of the best making 10 of 12 cuts on the season with eight Top 20 finishes and has gained 7.8 or more strokes tee to green in three straight events. He also fits the mold for a U.S. Open statistically(Last 24 rounds), ranking 13th in SG: Tee to Green, 18th in fairways gained, 8th in SG: Approach, 1st in Proximity from 200+ yards and 22nd in birdie or better. All things considered, he is my top PTS/$ value in the top tier this week.
Mito Pereira
World Golf Ranking (#45)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Draftkings ($7,800)
FanDuel ($9,000)
This will be Mito's first U.S. Open but outside of that lack of experience, he checks almost every other box. Let's start with form as he comes in playing some tremendous golf having made seven straight cuts with two Top 10's and no finish worse than T27. In that span, he has also gained 3.7+ tee to green in each event and 6.3+ strokes tee to green in five straight events. The other factor that stands out is that he seems to thrive in difficult scoring conditions as he ranks 14th in SG: Tee to Green over the last 24 rounds in those conditions, finds a ton of fairways(3rd in FW gained L24) and has a good long iron game(11th in Prox from 200+ L24). I will have a ton of exposure to Mito in all formats this week.
Webb Simpson
World Golf Ranking (#56)
Vegas Odds (80/1)
Draftkings ($7,400)
FanDuel ($9,300)
To say it has been a roller coaster of a season for the 2012 U.S. Open Champion would be an understatement. The good news here is that he appears to be finding something right in time to take on a course that fits his game probably better than any other U.S. Open venue. Following three sub-par performances(T48-Valspar, T35-Masters, T59 RBC Heritage) and a missed cut(Wells Fargo), Webb has tallied a T20 at the PGA Championship and T27 at the Charles Schwab while gaining 10 strokes tee to green and 2.5+ on approach in each. I think the up and down nature of his season helps keep the ownership quite low which makes me like the play even more, especially at his mid $7K price tag on DraftKings.
Denny McCarthy
World Golf Ranking (#121)
Vegas Odds (250/1)
Draftkings ($6,700)
FanDuel ($8,100)
When we head down into this punt value range we aren't necessarily looking for a player who can win, especially at a Major, but rather a player that can make the cut with upside of say a Top 25 finish and allows us to stack multiple top-tier golfers. McCarthy checks those boxes as he comes in very consistent with 10 straight made-cuts with four finishes of T27 or better including a massive T5 at the Memorial. While he ranks 120th in SG: Off the Tee over the last 24 rounds, he is 25th in fairways gained and elite around the gree(12th) and with the putter(2nd). All things considered, Denny is my favourite bottom-tier value play this week and in play in all formats.
Si Woo Kim
World Golf Ranking (#57)
Vegas Odds (125/1)
Draftkings ($7,000)
FanDuel ($8,800)
The Majors always give us underpriced value plays and Si Woo is one that stands out in that area at over a $1,000 discount(DK) compared to his season average. That is great news as he has been one of the most consistent players on Tour making 17 of 19 cuts on the season with nine finishes of T26 or better. Looking at his most recent results(T13-Memorial, T60 PGA Champ) he has gained 6+ strokes tee to green in both events and has been terrific around the green(+3.7 SG: ATG in both). With his consistency and T25 upside, I will have exposure in all formats.
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