New York Yankees' Aaron Judge bats during a baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles, Friday, June 1, 2018, in Baltimore. The Yankees won 4-1. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
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Opponent - COL (Chad Kuhl) Park - COL
FD - 39.93 DK - 21.61
Musgrove is in an excellent spot on Friday and could end up being one of the most popular pitchers on the slate. He’s facing the Rockies at home as a -264 favorite. Colorado, away from Coors, is one of the worst hitting teams in the league with a .284 team wOBA. Meanwhile, Musgrove has been ultra-efficient this season, with a 4.6:1 K:BB ratio while averaging more than 6.5 innings per start. He’s not as good as the 1.64 ERA would suggest, but he fits the bill for what we are looking for in a cash game pitcher on Friday.
Opponent - CHC (Wade Miley) Park - CHC
FD - 37.98 DK - 20.48
I suppose folks will be going back and forth between Musgrove and Severino in this price tier for Friday, and that makes sense. In terms of projection, they are very similar and have a lot of the same factors working in their favor. Severino is a -250 home favorite against the Cubs and has been striking out batters at an almost 10Ks/ 9 clip. He doesn’t go as deep into games as Musgrove, but he has more swing and miss stuff. Putting them together on DraftKings might be tough, especially when it comes to fitting in bats.
Opponent - DET (Elvin Rodriguez) Park - DET
FD - 13.54 DK - 10.19
The Blue Jays have one of the highest implied run lines on the day facing off against the Tigers and Elvin Rodriguez. The righty Rodriguez has gotten rocked in his first 16 major league innings and things have looked bad on that front for the 24-year-old. Meanwhile, Guerrero isn’t having the same kind of season he did the last time around when he was one of the best hitters in the league, but he’s running about 60 points off his average BABIP. He still has 13 home runs on the year and walks more than 11% of the time. He’s an excellent pay-up option in this matchup.
Opponent - BAL (Bruce Zimmermann) Park - BAL
FD - 11.48 DK - 8.67
Melendez should be hitting in the middle of the Royals’ order when they face the lefty Zimmermann on Friday. The former has been solid in his first 100+ major league plate appearances with an OPS just over .800 thanks to a solid walk rate and some decent power. He’s coming cheap on both sites and Kansas City’s 4.8 implied run line is one of the higher numbers you’ll see from this group.
Opponent - CHC (Wade Miley) Park - CHC
FD - 11.81 DK - 9.15
The Yankees have hit Aaron judge leadoff a few times recently, so there’s no guarantee that LeMahieu will be in the top spot in the order. But facing the lefty Miley I think we see him there. He’s starting to pick things back up this season with an OPS now in the mid-700s. And he remains tough to put down on strikes, getting the ball in play about 77% of the time this season. He’s been significantly better against lefty pitching throughout his career with an .839 OPS and .361 wOBA in that split, both way higher than what he’s done against righties.
Opponent - BAL (Bruce Zimmermann) Park - BAL
FD - 12.34 DK - 9.67
Merrifield has really struggled this season with an OPS sitting in the high-500s. Some of it is BABIP related with that number almost 100 points lower than his career average, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. That being said, when he gets on base Merrifield is still a threat to steal bases (seven on the season) and he’s been better in his career against lefties with an .805 OPS in that split. The price is lower on FanDuel and if he’s in the leadoff slot I think we can cue him up against the lefty.
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 10.82 DK - 8.19
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 9.89 DK - 7.49
The Brewers come in with one of the higher implied run lines on the day facing off against Erick Fedde and the Nationals. The latter has been terrible this season with an ERA pushing towards 5.00 while failing to strike batters out in any meaningful way. Adames and Urias should hit second and fourth in the Milwaukee lineup on Friday and both are coming as bargains. Urias qualifies at SS on DraftKings, so we are able to slot him in there. It’s a matchup play considering his price point seeing as how he’s not exactly mashing this season.
Meanwhile, Adames has 10 home runs on the season and an OPS in the mid-700s. He’s coming cheap enough on FanDuel at a weaker position that I think playing him in cash games makes sense especially if you are spending all the way up on pitching.
Opponent - CHC (Wade Miley) Park - CHC
FD - 11.8 DK - 8.79
As is often the case, the Yankees have a pretty high run line coming in on Friday with the number sitting at 5.4. The offense has been elite this season and Donaldson is picking things up, having hit in four-straight games getting the OPS into the mid-700s. For his career, he’s been only of the truly elite hitters when it comes to tagging lefties with a .933 OPS and .395 wOBA in that split. The Yankees could be in line for a big day here and Donaldson is coming way too cheap on FanDuel at sub-$3K.
Opponent - COL (Chad Kuhl) Park - COL
FD - 13.35 DK - 10.12
Machado will cost you a lot more on FanDuel, but on DraftKings, he and Donaldson are coming in the same relative price range. Machado is having an excellent season with a .944 OPS and .404 wOBA thanks to nine home runs, an 11% walk rate, and a .214 ISO. He’s back to the levels we saw back in 2020, a welcome sign for the Padres.
Opponent - CHC (Wade Miley) Park - CHC
FD - 14.19 DK - 10.62
Judge is having a season to beat the band is one of the major reasons the Yankees have just been dominating through the first part of this summer. He has a crazy 22 home runs, five more than the next closest guy and is on pace to hit more than 60 for the season. The 1.054 OPS is also just crushing and simply put, he’s one of the best hitters in all of baseball right now. You have to pay for his services, but it seems more than worth it at this point.
Opponent - KC (Jonathan Heasley) Park - KC
FD - 13.15 DK - 10.12
Mullins isn’t putting up quite the same numbers we saw last season when he broke it out of the box for a 30-30 season. It would be tough for anyone to recreate that kind of performance, so some drop-off was to be expected. There’s still plenty of fantasy upside with his profile and even if the power hasn’t been there, he’s still a menace on the bases paths with 11 stolen bases so far.
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 11.74 DK - 8.88
The Brewers have moved Yelich up into the leadoff spot of late, giving him some more plate appearance expectation at a reduced price. It doesn’t seem like we are going to see him return to the 2019 levels ever again, though there’s still some fantasy upside here. The power is down, but he’s stealing more bases (8 so far this season) and gets a great matchup against Fedde.
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