Washington Nationals' Juan Soto, right, follows through on a two-run home run against the Boston Red Sox during the third inning of a baseball game Friday, Aug. 28, 2020, at Fenway Park in Boston. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)
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Opponent - OAK (Paul Blackburn) Park - OAK
FD - 34.37 DK - 18.31
The pitching options on the afternoon slate aren’t exactly amazing so we are looking at probably paying down a bit at the position. Pivetta has been fine this season all things considered with an ERA just under 4.00 while he’s striking out just a hair under a batter per inning. The good news here is that he has one of the best matchups around against the A’s who rank last in the league in team wOBA while striking out 24% of the time, fifth-most in the league. Pivetta won’t cost much and helps fitting in some more guys on offense.
Opponent - SF (Logan Webb) Park - SF
FD - 35.88 DK - 19.19
I’m putting him under Pivetta here, not because he’s a worse pitcher, he’s actually much better, but because Lopez is much more expensive and doesn’t have quite the same win odds as Pivetta. The MIA-SF game is about even in terms of odds, though has a very low (7) run line. Lopez is striking out about 9.5 batters per nine this season with a 1.83 ERA though the 3.08 xFIP tells a slightly different story. I think pairing him and Pivetta on DK is completely fine and still leaves some wiggle room with the bats.
Opponent - TEX (Glenn Otto) Park - TEX
FD - 13.81 DK - 10.53
France is having an excellent season with an OPS right around .900 thanks to a better than 80% contact rate and a .151 ISO. In terms of OPS and wOBA, France has been around platoon neutral for his career, so we aren’t worried about the matchup against the righty Otto. The Mariners are projected for about 4.5 runs at this point, and France is coming at a fair price on both sites.
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 12.21 DK - 9.14
The Reds are tied for the highest implied run line on this slate at 5.2 and we are going to want to think about stacking this team in cash. They get to go in one of the best hitter’s park in baseball against Erick Fedde who’s had some control issues this season. Votto is slated to hit cleanup, though has struggled this year to get the OPS over .700. The hard contact rate isn’t amazing and there’s concern of decline. But that’s built into his price at this point and he’s coming cheap enough to consider.
Opponent - KC (Kris Bubic) Park - KC
FD - 13.41 DK - 10.23
The Astros are the other team tied for the top projected run line on the day and get a fantastic matchup against the lefty Bubic. The latter has struggled mightily this season and is a below average major league arm to begin with. Altuve has an .874 OPS on the year with 10 home runs, well on his way to another 30+ long ball season. And he’s raked lefties for his career with an .877 OPS and .375 wRC+ in that split. He makes for an excellent cash game play.
Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - SEA
FD - 12.37 DK - 9.35
It’s tough to know what to do with Semien. On the one hand, he’s been just terrible this season with a brutally low OPS and has struggled since the jump after signing the big contract. On the other hand, he’s coming still pretty cheap on FanDuel, is projected to hit leadoff and has been much better for his career against lefties. I don’t want to touch the DraftKings price at all, but can live with it on FD if you want to get away from Altuve.
Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - SEA
FD - 11.91 DK - 9.04
Even facing the left Gonzales, Seager should still hit in the second slot in the lineup for the Rangers on Saturday. Like Semien, he’s also been a bit disappointing since coming over as a free agent in the off-season, but nowhere near as bad as the former. Seager still has 11 home runs on the season with a mid-700s OPS. He’s been better against righties for his career, but the numbers against southpaws are still fine with an .811 OPS and 119 wRC+. Plus, shortstop is a bit thin on this afternoon slate.
Opponent - BAL (Tyler Wells) Park - BAL
FD - 9.57 DK - 7.5
If you are looking to go a bit cheaper on FanDuel, Rosario is coming close to punt prices there and should still hit second in the lineup for the Guardians on Saturday. He’s another one who’s struggled this season, but we are looking at this almost totally as a price play for the slate. Getting to hit near the top of the order and coming this cheap has its advantages in terms of plate appearance expectation.
Opponent - KC (Kris Bubic) Park - KC
FD - 12.92 DK - 9.7
Bregman’s OPS is barely over .700 but he’s dealt with some bad luck this season. The .230 BABIP is almost 60 points lower than his career average for starters, and his 8.6% Hr/FB rate is the lowest of his career. Remember, this is one of the truly elite bats for his career against lefty pitching with a .948 OPS and .396 wOBA in that split. He’s mashed southpaws and we already talked about how Bubic has struggled this season. I think Bregman is a pretty easy play on Saturday.
I prefer Bregman to anyone else in the 3B field by a pretty wide margin. But if you wanted to go a little cheaper then Mike Moustakas (FD $2800 DK $3000) or Eugenio Suárez (FD $3200 DK $4000) could be interesting.
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 12.54 DK - 9.66
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 11.06 DK - 8.53
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 12.53 DK - 9.52
With the Reds having one of the highest implied run lines on the day, I think we are going to want to try to play the top of their order in cash games. These three guys should hit 1, 2, 3 for Cincy against the righty Fedde. There could be movement to get Votto in the three spot, but it wouldn’t change the recommendation for the Reds’ OF at all. While none of them are overwhelming talents at the plate this season, Drury has flashed some power while Pham has a 15% walk rate. Mostly what we are looking at here is the chance to get the top of the order against a weaker arm in a great hitter’s park without breaking the bank.
Opponent - CIN (Tyler Mahle) Park - CIN
FD - 13.56 DK - 10.12
Speaking of guys going in great hitter’s parks, Soto has the chance to do just that just coming out from the other dugout. He’s dealing with some BABIP issues this season but is still walking (18%) more than he’s striking out (15%) and has 10 home runs already. He’s still one of the elite hitters in baseball and with some batter ball luck coming back his way could start pushing the OPS into the .900 range again.
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