San Diego Padres starting pitcher Joe Musgrove works against a Milwaukee Brewers batter during the first inning of a baseball game Monday, April 19, 2021, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
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Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - SD
FD - 45.51 DK - 24.57
Musgrove is a -226 favorite going into the game on Saturday, the best money line odds on the day. That’s a good place to start with cash games seeing as how he’ll be facing off against one of the worst offenses in baseball. Musgrove isn’t K-ing guys at the same level he was at last year (of the year before) but he’s still going further into games and the lack of walks makes the innings upside all that much better. I like the DraftKings price better than FanDuel, but he’s in play on both sites.
Opponent - TB (Corey Kluber) Park - TB
FD - 39.93 DK - 22.46
He doesn’t have the same moneyline odds as Musgrove because the matchup against the Rays is much worse. But Cole is still one of the best pitchers on this slate and there aren’t a ton of high-quality arms going on Saturday. The Rays strike out around league average, but Cole is helped by the park here with Tampa really favoring pitchers and mitigating power to all sides. Cole is striking out around 11 batters per nine on the season and has been consistently keeping the walks to right around two per nine. He’s expensive but has been a safe arm with upside over many seasons now.
Opponent - ARI (Merrill Kelly) Park - ARI
FD - 15.02 DK - 11.32
The Dodgers are getting a typical Freddie Freeman performance this season in that he’s an elite bat and is almost impossible (from an MLB perspective) to get out. He’s got an OPS pushing .900 because he’s tough to K (12%) and walks just as much (12%). He’s been one of the best hitters in baseball over the last few seasons and that didn’t change with him coming to LA. He’s very expensive on DK, but that’s to be expected.
Opponent - CHC (Keegan Thompson) Park - CHC
FD - 10.57 DK - 8
Abreu isn’t putting up the same power numbers as last season when he smacked 30 home runs on his way to an .832 OPS. Things are down a bit this time around with the OPS sitting in the mid-700s though some of that is BABIP related. He’s still walking 11% of the time and striking out only 17%. It’s going to be a tougher matchup for Keegan Thompson and the White Sox have one of the higher implied run lines on the day at 4.7.
Opponent - CIN (Vladimir Gutierrez) Park - CIN
FD - 11.08 DK - 8.49
The Giants face off against Vladimir Gutierrez and clearly have one of the higher implied run lines of the day. Gutierrez has a whopping 8.70 ERA this season and a 5.56 ERA for his career. He doesn’t strike out many batters and walks a ton. That’s great news for La Stella who has put the ball in play about 80% of the time for his career and has about mid-700s OPS over more than 1,700 plate appearances. He’s just a competent, if not spectacular hitter who is coming cheap and should be in the leadoff slot on Saturday.
Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - PIT
FD - 10.32 DK - 7.91
I like the price on FanDuel especially and he should be in the leadoff slot for the Padres on Saturday when they face the righty Brubaker. Croneworth has struggled out of the gate this season with an OPS sitting in the .600s, not great. But his hard contact rate isn’t too far below what he did last season, it’s just that the fly balls aren’t turning into home runs. It’s led to a price drop and I think we have something of a bargain on FD.
Opponent - ARI (Merrill Kelly) Park - ARI
FD - 12.18 DK - 9.38
Turner is on a 19-game hitting streak right now and has homered in two of his last four games. We aren’t ones to use streaks as predictive, but it’s just a testament to his consistency at the plate and how tough he is to get out. The power and speed combo is among the best in the game and he already has 10 stolen bases on the season. The Dodgers could be a popular stack here on Saturday against Kelly.
Opponent - CHC (Keegan Thompson) Park - CHC
FD - 11.15 DK - 8.7
Anderson is putting together another fantastic season with an OPS sitting over .900, putting the ball in play 85% of the time and basically just giving you everything you could want from a fantasy perspective. He has five home runs and seven stolen bases, and though he’s been much better for his career against lefty arms, this matchup against Keegan Thompson isn’t one to shy away from.
Opponent - ARI (Merrill Kelly) Park - ARI
FD - 12.34 DK - 9.31
Look, I know this season has been a real trial. Turner has been terrible and there’s almost no other way around that. He’s struggled and the OPS is sitting well south of 700. But he’s also been amazing against righties for his career and the Dodgers are willing to keep him around the middle of the order. In this side of the split, he has a .362 wOBA and high-800s OPS. We’ll take it.
Opponent - CIN (Vladimir Gutierrez) Park - CIN
FD - 11.47 DK - 8.73
We usually want to target Longoria against lefty pitching because that’s the much better side of the platoon for the guy, but we can load him up here against the low-K Gutierrez who could be in for a-hurting at Great American Ballpark on Saturday. Longoria is really struggling with the strikeouts this season, but again, that’s totally mitigated in this matchup. I like buying him on the cheap assuming he’s hitting around the middle of the order.
Opponent - STL (Matthew Liberatore) Park - STL
FD - 12.25 DK - 9.18
McCutchen should be in the leadoff slot for the Brewers on Saturday against the lefty Liberatore and that means we can play him with impunity on both sites. Sure, the OPS is sitting in the .700 range, but this is a guy with a .952 career OPS against southpaws. Those numbers are just ridiculous, and they go with a .405 wOBA and 157 wRC+ in that split. He just rakes this kind of matchup and we are getting him so cheap on DraftKings especially.
Opponent - CIN (Vladimir Gutierrez) Park - CIN
FD - 12.87 DK - 9.67
Opponent - CIN (Vladimir Gutierrez) Park - CIN
FD - 12.9 DK - 9.7
I mostly just wanted to write up Pederson because of the altercation he and Tommy Pham had on Friday in which Pham slapped Joc over a fantasy football dispute they had the year prior. Legendary. Anyway, in addition to that, the Giants are in a great spot against Gutierrez and Pederson has a .934 OPS on the season thanks to 11 home runs already. He’s been raking and this is another good matchup in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball.
And then there’s Yastrzemski who’s putting together an excellent season with an .891 OPS and .392 wOBA thanks, in part, to a 14% walk rate that is as much as his K rate. He’s been one of the better hitters in baseball and I love stacking the top of the Giants’ order in this matchup.
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