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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 5/27/22 - Main Slate
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Pitchers
Sean Manaea FD 9700 DK 10000
Opponent - PIT (José Quintana) Park - PIT
FD - 42.08 DK - 22.87
Manaea comes in with the best win odds of the day, facing off against the Pirates as a -200 road favorite. Though the 4.04 ERA might scare you, know that the xFIP is lower and this is a guy striking out more than 10 batters per nine and going more than six innings per outing. The Pirates rank 24th in team wOBA this season and are striking out 24.2% of the time, 8th-most in the league. This is a pretty easy play all things considered.
Jon Gray FD 7100 DK 5500
Opponent - OAK (Cole Irvin) Park - OAK
FD - 37.04 DK - 19.32
Gray’s DraftKings price is a total joke. He’s so cheap over there that I think he’ll easily be the chalkiest play on the slate for that slight. Gray’s 5.14 ERA is underwhelming, but the 3.72 xFIP is almost 1.5 runs lower. He’s striking out close to a batter an inning on the season and has run into some LOB% issues which look more like bad luck than anything else. Plus, he gets to face off against the Oakland A’s who, along with Detroit, occupy the basement in terms of team offense. They stink. Gray is in a tremendous spot here and will cost almost nothing.
Shane Bieber (FD $8600 DK $9000) gets to face off against the aforementioned Tigers’ “offense” and could pile up K’s.
Garrett Whitlock (FD $7000 DK $6800) is a heavy favorite over the Orioles.
Catcher/First Base
Will Smith FD 3400 DK 5300
Opponent - ARI (Madison Bumgarner) Park - ARI
FD - 10.45 DK - 7.77
Smith should be hitting cleanup for the Dodgers on Friday when they face off against Madison Bumgarner and there’s a reason this squad has a 5.3 implied run line heading in. Bumgarner isn’t nearly as good as the 2.76 ERA would suggest, striking out fewer than six batters per nine and mostly getting lucky this year. Smith has been better for his career against righties, but the matchup is just too good here considering you can load up on bats with some of the pitching options coming on the cheaper side.
Keibert Ruiz FD 3000 DK 4500
Opponent - COL (Austin Gomber) Park - COL
FD - 10 DK - 7.67
Ruiz projects to hit second in the Nationals’ lineup on Friday, facing off against the lefty Gomber. Ruiz is a contact machine, putting the ball in play about 83% of the time throughout his (short-is) career. He’s been a mid-700s OPS guy and is very tough to put down on strikes. And for lefties, he’s nearly impossible to put down swinging, K-ing only 6% of the time in that split so far. Gomber is a low-strikeout guy to begin with and you have to like the prospect of Ruiz getting the ball in play early and often here.
Second Base
Ozzie Albies FD 3300 DK 4700
Opponent - MIA (Trevor Rogers) Park - MIA
FD - 12.49 DK - 9.57
Albies should hit leadoff against the lefty Rogers on Friday and this is a split the young switch-hitter has crushed for him career. Against southpaws, Albies has been elite, rocking a .926 OPS, 389 wOBA, and 142 wRC+. These numbers stand in stark contrast to what he’s done against righties, the platoon that is dragging down his overall numbers. Sure, he’s a little expensive here, but it’s for good reason considering how well he performs against lefties.
To be fair, as of this writing I like Albies considerably more than any other second baseman on the board for this slate. If you want to look a different direction though, Ketel Marte (FD $3200 DK $4900) doesn’t look like a bad option and Marcus Semien (FD $2500 DK $3900) is getting cheap though he’s been horrible.
Shortstop
Xander Bogaerts FD 3700 DK 5200
Opponent - BAL (Kyle Bradish) Park - BAL
FD - 12.84 DK - 9.75
The Red Sox have the highest implied run line of the day at 5.7, facing off against the righty Kyle Bradish. It’s a solid spot, though be forewarned that Bradish does have some K’s in the arsenal. That being said, it’s going to be hard to ignore that run line and I suspect the Red Sox are one of the more popular plays on the evening. Bogaerts is putting up another solid season with the OPS in the mid-800s though the four home runs is well behind his power pace over the last couple of seasons. It’s kept the FD price down some though and I do think we are getting a value here.
Trea Turner FD 4200 DK 5900
Opponent - ARI (Madison Bumgarner) Park - ARI
FD - 12.25 DK - 9.44
Like we said with Will Smith, the Dodgers are getting a good matchup against the lefty Bumgarner who really can’t strike out batters on the major league level anymore. Turner isn’t dialing up the same power numbers as last season, though he’s kept the speed going with 10 stolen bases already on the year. He’s been better against lefties for his career with an .880 OPS in that split. The wOBA and wRC+ are higher as well and you have to love the contact rate against southpaws. He’s expensive but has as much upside as anyone in the game when it’s rolling.
Third Base
Rafael Devers FD 4200 DK 5800
Opponent - BAL (Kyle Bradish) Park - BAL
FD - 14.36 DK - 10.85
Devers has been excellent this season, sporting a .966 OPS thanks to 10 home runs, a sub 20% K rate and .377 ISO. He’s just been one of the best hitters in the game so far and that could continue here in the matchup against Bradish. For his career, Devers has been about 150 OPS points better against righties with significantly more power. It’s hard to get away from this bat on Friday especially knowing you can save on pitching.
Justin Turner FD 3000 DK 4900
Opponent - ARI (Madison Bumgarner) Park - ARI
FD - 10.66 DK - 8.04
Turner is struggling from an OPS perspective, but there is definitely some bad luck in there as well. He’s been mostly platoon neutral for his career and the Dodgers are still trusting him to hit around the middle of the lineup as well. I like the FanDuel price more than DraftKings.
Outfield
Enrique Hernández FD 2900 DK 3500
Opponent - BAL (Kyle Bradish) Park - BAL
FD - 10.7 DK - 8.06
Alex Verdugo FD 2700 DK 3300
Opponent - BAL (Kyle Bradish) Park - BAL
FD - 10.74 DK - 8.25
As stated with Bogaerts and Devers, the Red Sox are in a great spot in terms of implied runs and could be some popular plays on this Friday's main slate of games. Hernandez should, once again, be in the leadoff slot for Boston though he’s been struggling to start this season. The .601 OPS is a problem though some of that is BABIP related and he’s struggling with his HR/FB rate for sure. But the hard contact rate is down some as well. I’m willing to buy the lower price points if he’s hitting in the leadoff slot, but recognize there’s some risk with the struggles.
And then there’s Verdugo who should be hitting sixth, but is also on the struggle bus. His OPS is even worse than Hernandez though the issues are similar. The BABIP is in the tank and the flyballs just aren’t leaving the yard. He makes a ton of contact, putting the ball into play 83% of the time, but the other numbers aren’t following. That being said, it’s why we are getting him so cheap here.
Juan Soto FD 3700 DK 5000
Opponent - COL (Austin Gomber) Park - COL
FD - 12.99 DK - 9.7
Nelson Cruz FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - COL (Austin Gomber) Park - COL
FD - 11.69 DK - 8.83
Lane Thomas FD 2300 DK 2700
Opponent - COL (Austin Gomber) Park - COL
FD - 10.52 DK - 7.98
I do like stacking the Nationals against the lefty Gomber who doesn’t K many batters and could struggle against the top of this lineup. All three of these guys are in play with Soto clearly being the stud of the bunch. He’s a superstar and though the dude has been much better against righties for his career, he’s completely serviceable against lefties, especially ones who don’t have elite swing-and-miss stuff.
Meanwhile, Cruz’s success against lefties is well documented with a career .946 OPS in that split. He’s coming too cheap on both sites, though it’s worth noting that he is struggling this season and isn’t exactly a spring chicken. And finally, Lane Thomas should be hitting leadoff against the lefty and is looking very much like a punt play.
