New York Yankees' Aaron Judge bats during a baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles, Friday, June 1, 2018, in Baltimore. The Yankees won 4-1. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
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Opponent - WSH (Patrick Corbin) Park - MIL
FD - 40.12 DK - 21.65
Don’t let the 5.35 ERA fool you, he’s been much better than this for the season and has run bad in a few key areas. He’s actually still striking out batters at a 29% clip for the season and the 3.39 xFIP is almost two full runs lower than the ERA. He has a BABIP against that’s 50 points higher than his career average and the 61% LOB is well below his career average as well. That’s a lot of bad luck in there and going to keep some folks away. But don’t worry about it. He’s been a solid pitcher this season and the matchup works for cash games as well. The Nationals have been terrible this season.
Opponent - CHW (Dallas Keuchel) Park - CHW
FD - 39.95 DK - 21.84
Well, this guy has been a little piece of awesome this season. Cortes comes into the game with a 1.35 ERA (2.78 xFIP) and has had about as good a 40IP stretch as you’ll see in the majors. The K’s have spiked to over 11 per nine thanks in part to throwing a cutter much more than he ever has in the past. He’s a -214 home favorite against the White Sox, the best money line odds on the day and he’ll almost definitely be one of the chalkier plays for this slate. It makes sense considering what he’s doing on the mound so far this season.
Justin Verlander (FD $10800 DK $10300) is looking like a strong option for the evening slate.
Opponent - BAL (Kyle Bradish) Park - BAL
FD - 11.08 DK - 8.27
We have to try and find some cheaper options at the plate because there are some superstars we are going to want to pay for later. Choi helps with some of the salary concerns, especially on FanDuel where he’s coming at only $2600. He’s striking out a lot this season (33%) but the 14% walk rate plays and he still has an OPS in the mid-700s. Kyle Bradish does have some K stuff in his bag, which is a bit of a concern, but Choi is significantly better for his career against righties.
Opponent - BOS (Garrett Whitlock) Park - BOS
FD - 11.8 DK - 9
While Choi might be the way to save on FanDuel, on DraftKings we can definitely give France a look where he’s coming at only $3600. With Whitlock converting to a starter, the Red Sox have found a way to get more K’s on the mound for sure, but France is still a solid bat here, putting the ball in play 82% of the time this season and sporting an .881 OPS. And it’s worth noting that he’s been slightly better against righties for his career, with a .350 wOBA in that split.
Opponent - CHW (Dallas Keuchel) Park - CHW
FD - 12.03 DK - 9.32
The Yankees were rained out on Friday and will get to face Dallas Keuchel now on Saturday. The latter could be in real trouble. The Bombers have an implied run line right around 5.6, the highest of any team on the all-day slate of games. LeMahieu should be in the leadoff slot against the lefty and even though he’s struggled the last two seasons, I love the spot. It doesn’t look like he is going to return to the 26-home run pace he had in his first season with the Yankees, but he’s been significantly better against lefties for his career with a .360 wOBA and .836 OPS in that split.
Opponent - SEA (Chris Flexen) Park - SEA
FD - 10.6 DK - 8.05
I greatly prefer LeMahieu to all other options so I’m writing up Story begrudgingly here. He’s been fine enough this season with a mid-700s OPS and six home runs already. The K’s are around 30% which isn’t amazing, but he does have the walk rate over 10%. The good news is that Chris Flexen hasn’t shown the ability to strike batters out at an above-average rate on the major league level, putting down just 6.37 guys per nine over 287 career innings. That means we can reduce the K expectation considerably for Story in this matchup.
Opponent - COL (Germán Márquez) Park - COL
FD - 12.53 DK - 9.5
The Mets aren’t available on FanDuel at this point, but we can still take advantage on DraftKings. Lindor is one of the highest projected players on the slate because of the Mets heading into Coors Field for the weekend. He hasn’t been able to recreate the 30+ home run season from 2019, but there is still pop in the bat and he’s tough to K, going down on strikes only 19% of the time this season. He also has an 11% walk rate and a mid-700s OPS despite the BABIP sitting about 30 points lower than his career averages. I suspect because of the park that he’ll be a popular play on this slate.
Opponent - DET (Alex Faedo) Park - DET
FD - 9.59 DK - 7.51
If looking for a cheaper option on FanDuel in order to stack some of the bigger bats, then Rosario could work in this spot. Sure, the OPS is sitting in the .600 range, but there is some bad luck with the BABIP in there. He’s still putting the ball in play around 80% of the time though needs to increase the hard contact rate and stop grounding out so damn much. It’s one of the reasons he’s coming close to the minimum on FanDuel where he could work as a punt play.
Opponent - DET (Alex Faedo) Park - DET
FD - 14.03 DK - 10.6
There are a few elite bats to pay for on Saturday and Ramirez is one of them. He has a .968 OPS for the season and is walking (13%) significantly more than he’s striking out (8.9%). You just don’t see that kind of number at all anymore, pointing to the rather obvious that he’s one of the best guys swinging a bat right now. And against a guy like Faedo who hasn’t shown the ability to put guys down on strikes at the major league level, Ramirez should have the ball in play early and often.
Donaldson had some early season struggles, but he's turned it around in a big way and now has the OPS sitting right at .800. Like some of his Yankee teammates we'll get to in a second, he's crushed lefty pitching for his career with a .932 OPS in that split. He's mashed southpaws and the Yankees could really give Keuchel fits in this one.
Opponent - CHW (Dallas Keuchel) Park - CHW
FD - 14.66 DK - 10.96
Opponent - CHW (Dallas Keuchel) Park - CHW
FD - 12.77 DK - 9.55
These two guys are putting up excellent seasons and are a big reason why the Yankees have jumped out to such a great early-season record. Judge has a 1.045 OPS so far, one of the best numbers you’ll see and has smacked 14 home runs, the tops in the league. He’s been great against both hands for his career, but slightly better against lefties with an elite .410 wOBA in that split. And seeing as how Keuchel has no K stuff to speak (like at all), this is just the right spot to pay up for Judge.
And then there is Stanton’s whose success against lefties for his career has been well documented. He as a cool .999 OPS in that split for his career to go with a .415 wOBA. The walks go up (13%) and the K’s come down (24%) when there is a southpaw on the mound. These two will cost you, but its worth it considering the matchup against a low-K arm and the success both have had in the platoon.
Opponent - COL (Germán Márquez) Park - COL
FD - 12.46 DK - 9.41
Opponent - COL (Germán Márquez) Park - COL
FD - 12.94 DK - 10.06
We wrote these guys up yesterday, but with the rain out it still applies here. They are only available on DraftKings though.
Nimmo is just an on-base machine, making him one of the better leadoff hitters in the whole game. He’s basically been getting on-base at a 40% clip over the last few seasons thanks to a 15% walk rate, and this year he’s even cut down on the strikeouts as well. He has some power, but not tons though Coors Field is the kind of place that can change that quick. Nimmo is expensive because of the Coors price increase but is still very much worth it because of his batted-ball profile and patience.
Meanwhile, Marte should hit second in the order to go lefty-righty and has significant fantasy upside in this matchup. For starters, he’s a reverse platoon guy for his career, hitting better against righties where he sports an .805 OPS and .348 wOBA, both of which are considerably higher than what he does against lefties. And he’s a menace on the basepaths as well, stealing 47 bags last season and adding another five already this year. He’s “slowing” down in this respect, but it’s still part of his profile. If you can afford it, the Mets are the team to stack.
Consider Franmil Reyes (FD $2500 DK $3000) and Andrew McCutchen (FD $2800 DK $3800)
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