Dallas Mavericks' Luka Doncic shoots free throws during an NBA basketball game against the Los Angeles Lakers in Dallas, Thursday, April 22, 2021. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
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The Warriors enter the series as -5.5 favorites in Game 1 and -230 to take the series. It’s going to be interesting to see how this all plays out. Golden State played a weird series against a mostly Ja Morant-less Memphis squad and it still went to six games. Heck, they got blown out by 39 points in Game 5 before clinching it at home last Friday. They, of course, have championship upside with their current personnel, but it’s not anything like a lock as we saw in some other peak-Steph years.
And then there is Dallas who is coming off one of the most improbable series and Game 7’s we’ve ever seen. They walked into Phoenix for a closeout game and promptly embarrassed the Western Conference’s one-seed. They are a superstar and role players team all the way down and do have some ways to make things tough on the Warriors. These two teams are very different and it’s going to be very interesting to see how it all plays out.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 57.7 DK - 63.92
It will be fascinating to see how the Warriors try to defend Luka. They don’t have anything close to the kind of defenders that the Suns had, at least on the wing and there’s a chance that Doncic could really feast here. He might see really just about every defensive look here and the Warriors will likely have to try and double, though that risks leaving shooters open. Such is the issues with Donci who is coming off a series averaging 33 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists while only playing 36 minutes a game because of how each individual game shook out.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 35.02 DK - 38.85
The Warriors are going to need a ton out of Klay in this series because not only is he going to need to knock down shots, but he will also get cracks at Luka on defense. We saw the minutes ramp up to over 40 when necessary in the second round and for the series Thompson put up 19 points and five rebounds while taking 17 shots per game and knocking down 37% of his threes on more than nine looks. It’s going to need to be better for the Warriors to win. But I do think the minutes are going to be there.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 33.94 DK - 36.86
Because of the Warriors' guard situation, it is going to be easy for Brunson to stay on the court here and he also offers some matchup problems for Golden State. Brunson was awesome to close out the Suns’ series putting up 22 points, 4.4 assists, and three rebounds over the last five when the Mads went 4-1. The price is still in the range that you can play him and fit some superstars.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 32.85 DK - 35.28
You can’t completely trust him which is why he is priced in this tier. I think he plays a ton of minutes in this series because he’s one of the only Warriors wing defenders and that alone is going to be needed in this series. And we saw the flashes of the fantasy upside as well. Heck, in the closeout game against Memphis he went for 18 points and 11 rebounds. Wipe away the disaster Game 5 (a disaster for the whole team) and Wiggins averaged 17 points and 8 rebounds for the series with consistency.
Is Draymond Green (FD 6000 DK 6300) going to play 39 minutes a game for this series like we saw in Game 6? They might need him too especially if they just go to him at the five almost exclusively because of how the Mavericks play. If that’s the case, then double-double potential is there for Green.
Kevon Looney (FD 4800 DK 3800) played a million minutes in Game 6 against the Grizzlies and put up a crazy 22 rebounds. But can you really trust that to repeat even a little? Dallas has made a living taking opposing centers off the court.
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